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Spatiotemporal assessment of the nexus between urban sprawl and land surface temperature as microclimatic effect: implications for urban planning

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Abstract

Rapid urbanisation has led to significant environmental and climatic changes worldwide, especially in urban heat islands where increased land surface temperature (LST) poses a major challenge to sustainable urban living. In the city of Abha in southwestern Saudi Arabia, a region experiencing rapid urban growth, the impact of such expansion on LST and the resulting microclimatic changes are still poorly understood. This study aims to explore the dynamics of urban sprawl and its direct impact on LST to provide important insights for urban planning and climate change mitigation strategies. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm optimised for land use and land cover (LULC) mapping, LULC models were derived that had an overall accuracy of 87.70%, 86.27% and 93.53% for 1990, 2000 and 2020, respectively. The mono-window algorithm facilitated the derivation of LST, while Markovian transition matrices and spatial linear regression models assessed LULC dynamics and LST trends. Notably, built-up areas grew from 69.40 km2 in 1990 to 338.74 km2 in 2020, while LST in urban areas showed a pronounced warming trend, with temperatures increasing from an average of 43.71 °C in 1990 to 50.46 °C in 2020. Six landscape fragmentation indices were then calculated for urban areas over three decades. The results show that the Largest Patch Index (LPI) increases from 22.78 in 1990 to 65.24 in 2020, and the number of patches (NP) escalates from 2,531 in 1990 to an impressive 10,710 in 2020. Further regression analyses highlighted the morphological changes in the cities and attributed almost 97% of the LST variability to these urban patch dynamics. In addition, water bodies showed a cooling trend with a temperature decrease from 33.76 °C in 2000 to 29.69 °C in 2020, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. The conclusion emphasises the urgent need for sustainable urban planning to counteract the warming trends associated with urban sprawl and promote climate resilience.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Khalid University for funding this work through Research Group under grant number RGP2/349/44. The authors are also thankful to the undergraduate students of college of engineering, King Khalid University to assist in data collections.

Funding

Funding for this research was given under award numbers RGP2/349/44. by the Deanship of Scientific Research; King Khalid University, Ministry of Education, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Architecture and Planning, College of Engineering, King Khalid University, Abha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Mohammed J. Alshayeb & Ahmed Ali Bindajam

  2. Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Science, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India

    Hoang Thi Hang

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  1. Ahmed Ali A. Shohan
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Conceptualization, Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Hoang Thi Hang, Mohammed J. Alshayeb, Ahmed Ali Bindajam; data curation, Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Hoang Thi Hang; formal analysis, Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Hoang Thi Hang; funding acquisition, Mohammed J. Alshayeb; methodology, Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Hoang Thi Hang; project administration, Mohammed J. Alshayeb, Ahmed Ali Bindajam; resources, Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Hoang Thi Hang, Mohammed J. Alshayeb, Ahmed Ali Bindajam; software, Hoang Thi Hang; supervision, Mohammed J. Alshayeb, Ahmed Ali Bindajam; validation: Hoang Thi Hang; writing—original draft, Ahmed Ali A. Shohan, Hoang Thi Hang; writing—review and editing, Mohammed J. Alshayeb, Ahmed Ali Bindajam.

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Correspondence to Hoang Thi Hang.

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Shohan, A.A.A., Hang, H.T., Alshayeb, M.J. et al. Spatiotemporal assessment of the nexus between urban sprawl and land surface temperature as microclimatic effect: implications for urban planning. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 29048–29070 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33091-6

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