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Modeling flood susceptibility zones using hybrid machine learning models of an agricultural dominant landscape of India

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Abstract

Flooding events are determining a significant amount of damages, in terms of economic loss and also casualties in Asia and Pacific areas. Due to complexity and ferocity of severe flooding, predicting flood-prone areas is a difficult task. Thus, creating flood susceptibility maps at local level is though challenging but an inevitable task. In order to implement a flood management plan for the Balrampur district, an agricultural dominant landscape of India, and strengthen its resilience, flood susceptibility modeling and mapping are carried out. In the present study, three hybrid machine learning (ML) models, namely, fuzzy-ANN (artificial neural network), fuzzy-RBF (radial basis function), and fuzzy-SVM (support vector machine) with 12 topographic, hydrological, and other flood influencing factors were used to determine flood-susceptible zones. To ascertain the relationship between the occurrences and flood influencing factors, correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) and multicollinearity diagnostic tests were used. The predictive power of these models was validated and compared using a variety of statistical techniques, including Wilcoxon signed-rank, t-paired tests and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results show that fuzzy-RBF model outperformed other hybrid ML models for modeling flood susceptibility, followed by fuzzy-ANN and fuzzy-SVM. Overall, these models have shown promise in identifying flood-prone areas in the basin and other basins around the world. The outcomes of the work would benefit policymakers and government bodies to capture the flood-affected areas for necessary planning, action, and implementation.

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All the data and materials related to the manuscript are published with the paper and available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Special Centre for Disaster Research, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India

    Satish Kumar Saini, Susanta Mahato, Deep Narayan Pandey & Pawan Kumar Joshi

  2. School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India

    Pawan Kumar Joshi

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  1. Satish Kumar Saini
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  2. Susanta Mahato
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  3. Deep Narayan Pandey
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Satish Kumar Saini collected data, prepared maps and framework of the study, and wrote part of manuscript. Susanta Mahato prepared maps and wrote part of manuscript; Deep Narayan Pandey was responsible for the supervision, correction, and editing of the manuscript; Pawan Kumar Joshi visualized the work and was responsible for the correction and editing of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Deep Narayan Pandey.

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Saini, S.K., Mahato, S., Pandey, D.N. et al. Modeling flood susceptibility zones using hybrid machine learning models of an agricultural dominant landscape of India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 97463–97485 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29049-9

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