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Drought Risk Assessment for Surface Water Distribution Systems in Irrigation Districts

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Abstract

This study puts forward a practical risk assessment framework for agricultural Surface Water Distribution Systems (SWDS) operation under drought conditions. It accounts for situations when the diverted flow from the diversion dam fails to cover the total water rights within the districts. The risk probability is based on drought analysis and the Stream Drought Index (SDI) classification using the DrinC calculator. The risk consequence is determined based on SWDS operational performance appraisal, which includes hydraulic simulation by HEC-RAS, temporal analysis of adequacy, efficiency, and equity indices, spatial assessment in GIS, and combining performance evaluation indices using the Simple Weighted Sum (SAW) method. SWDS risk assessment is conducted considering the probability and consequences of drought hazard on the monthly and annual time scales. The obtained results show the monthly and yearly risks vary between (73.7, 76.1) % and (46.3, 63.9) % under the extreme-critical condition; (46.0, 53.2) % and (38.1, 51.1) % under the critical condition; (24.4, 35.1) % and (18.7, 27.5) % under the semi-critical condition; and (16.6, 25.5) % and (10.7, 16.6) % under the normal condition. The outcomes of the present study can empower dam owners, utility companies, and irrigation district managers to have realistic water planning, emergence action, and recovery plans for optimum surface water distribution between the hydraulic off-take structures.

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Availability of Data and Materials

All the data used in this study can be requested by email to the corresponding author.

Abbreviations

Cms:

Cubic meters per second

DrinC:

Drought Indices Calculator

ED:

Extreme Drought

HEC-RAS:

Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System

HPO:

Historical Probability of Occurrence

IUs:

Irrigated Units

MAE:

Mean Absolute Error

MCDM:

Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

MCM:

Million Cubic Meters

O_Sc:

Operational Scenarios

RMSE:

Root Mean Square Error

SAW:

Simple Weighted Sum

SDI:

Stream Drought Index

SWDS:

Surface Water Distribution Systems

USBR:

US Bureau of Reclamation

WSC:

Weighting Scenarios

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Javad Pourmahmoud & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany

  2. Faculty of Science and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Ås, Norway

    Abbas Roozbahani

Authors
  1. Javad Pourmahmoud
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  2. Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany
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  3. Abbas Roozbahani
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Contributions

JP: Investigation, Methodology, Software, Modeling & Simulation, Formal analysis, Writing - original draft. - SMHS: Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Writing - Review & Editing. - AR: Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Writing - Review & Editing.

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Correspondence to Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany or Abbas Roozbahani.

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Pourmahmoud, J., Hashemy Shahdany, S. & Roozbahani, A. Drought Risk Assessment for Surface Water Distribution Systems in Irrigation Districts. Water Resour Manage 37, 5325–5342 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03608-8

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