Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Improving the efficiency of main Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems (AWCDS) has a significant impact on improving water productivity in agriculture. Therefore, risk assessment of mentioned systems is necessary to increase reliability of operational performance. Accordingly, this study for the first time presents a unique framework to assess the adequacy, equity, and efficiency of agricultural water distribution and delivery risk assessment within AWCDS. In this way, the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique is employed for risk assessment of “undesirability of supply and delivery”. The west Dez main irrigation canal in Khuzestan province of Iran was determined as the case study of the research. A set of questionnaires filled up by managers and experts of this irrigation district, the failure probabilities of the basic events are gathered in the form of linguistic terms. Due to the uncertainty in these terms, the system’s risk assessment to determine the failure probability of the top event was performed based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis method (FFTA). The results of the study showed that the failure probability in the fuzzy approach is 0.55 which is roughly 0.15 more than crisp approach. Also, the rating of the basic events based on their contribution to the occurrence of the top event was carried out using importance measures. Five major events were identified with an emphasis on operational and socio-economic issues related to distribution and delivery of water. Comparing the results of risk assessment with the mathematical model reveals that the latter’s failure probability will be less than the system’s FTA due to non-consideration of some important factors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10.
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Beauchamp N, Lence BJ, Bouchard C (2010) Technical hazard identification in water treatment using FTA. Can J Civ Eng 37(6):897–906

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burt CM (2011) Chairman of the Board, Irrigation Training and Research Center (ITRC). G. Marks, & E. Wilcox, Interviewers), San Luis Obispo, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Ching J, Leu SS (2009) Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(12):1962–1974

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clemmens AJ (1991) Irrigation uniformity relationships for irrigation system management. J Irrig Drain Eng 117(5):682–699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fares H, Zayed T (2010) Hierarchical fuzzy expert system for risk of failure of water mains. J Pipeline Syst Eng Pract 1(1):53–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fele F, Maestre JM, Hashemy SM, de la Peña DM, Camacho EF (2014) Coalitional model predictive control of an irrigation canal. J Process Control 24(4):314–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FEMA-452 (2005) Risk assessment: a how-to guide to mitigate potential terrorist attacks against buildings. FEMA risk management series, Washington, DC, pp 1–1

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferdous F, Miao H, Leaird DE, Srinivasan K, Wang J, Chen L, Varghese LT, Weiner AM (2011) Spectral line-by-line pulse shaping of on-chip microresonator frequency combs. Nat Photonics 5(12):770–776

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jian HU, Junying C, Jiahong L, Dayong Q (2011) Risk identification of sudden water pollution on FFTA in beibu-gulf economic zone. Procedia Environ Sci 10:2413–2419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavasani S, Wang J, Yang Z, Finlay J (2012) Application of MADMin a fuzzy environment for selecting the best barrier for offshore wells. Expert Syst Appl 39:2466–2478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang GS, Wang MJJ (1991) A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method for facility site selection. Int J Prod Res 29(11):2313–2330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindhe A, Rosén L, Norberg T, Bergstedt O (2009) FTA for integrated and probabilistic risk assessment of drinking water systems. Water Res 43(6):1641–1653

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindhe A, Norberg T, Rosen L (2012) Approximate dynamic FTA calculations for modelling water supply risks. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 106:61–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Litrico X, Fromion V (2009) Modeling and control of hydrosystems. Springer Science & Business Media

  • Mahmood NH, Lim PC, Mazalan SM, Razak MAA (2013) Blood cells extraction using color based segmentation technique. Int J Life Sci Biotechnol Pharma Res 2(2):2250–3137

    Google Scholar 

  • Marhavilas PK, Koulouriotis D, Gemeni V (2011) Risk assessment and assessment methodologies in the work sites: on a review, classification and comparative study of the scientific literature of the period 2000–2009. J Loss Prev Process Ind 24(5):477–523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molden DJ, Gates TK (1990) Performance measures for evaluation of irrigation-water-delivery systems. J Irrig Drain Eng 116(6):804–823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pan ZJ, Tai YC (1988) Variance importance of system components by Monte Carlo. IEEE Trans Reliab 37(4):421–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadiq R, Kleiner Y, Rajani B (2007) Water quality failures in distribution networks—risk assessment using fuzzy logic and evidential reasoning. Risk Assess 27(5):1381–1394

    Google Scholar 

  • Schuurmans J, Hof A, Dijkstra S, Bosgra OH, Brouwer R (1999) Simple water level controller for irrigation and drainage canals. J Irrig Drain Eng 125(4):189–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahdany SH, Maestre JM, Van Overloop PJ (2015) Equitable water distribution in main irrigation canals with constrained water supply. Water Resour Manag 29(9):3315–3328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi B, Jiang J, Liu R, Ullah Khan A, Wang P (2017) Engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal projects of sudden water pollution incidents. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(17):14819–14833

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suresh PV, Jayanti S, Deshpande AP, Haridoss P (2011) An improved serpentine flow field with enhanced cross-flow for fuel cell applications. Int J Hydrog Energy 36(10):6067–6072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taheriyoun M, Moradinejad S (2015) Reliability analysis of a wastewater treatment plant using FTA analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Environ Monit Assess 187:4186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torres J, Brumbelow K, Guikema S (2009) Risk classification and uncertainty propagation for virtual water distribution systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(8):1259–1273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vesely WE, Goldberg FF, Roberts NH, Haasl DF (1981) Fault tree handbook (No. NUREG-0492). Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Yager RR (1981) A procedure for ordering fuzzy subsets of the unit interval. Inf Sci 24(2):143–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yetton P, Bottger P (1983) The relationships among group size, member ability, social decision schemes, and performance. Org Behav Human Perform 32(2):145–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuhua D, Datao Y (2005) Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by FFTA analysis. J Loss Prev Process Ind 18(2):83–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inf Control 8(3):338–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Morteza Babaei, Abbas Roozbahani & S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany

Authors
  1. Morteza Babaei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Abbas Roozbahani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Abbas Roozbahani or S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

None.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Babaei, M., Roozbahani, A. & Shahdany, S.M.H. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method. Water Resour Manage 32, 4079–4101 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2042-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2042-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation