Abstract
Climate change, land-use changes and other anthropogenic pressures are globally the major drivers of biodiversity decline with profound implications, especially for the fragile Himalayan ecosystems. These drivers, if factored into the biodiversity conservation models, significantly improve their reliability and help a great deal prioritise habitats for better management. Here we focussed on an important medicinal plant species (Trillium govanianum), endemic to Himalayan region that is beset with the twin challenge of climate change and growing human footprint. We predicted the current and future projection of the distribution range of this species using SDM tool ‘MaxEnt’ supplemented with ‘Zonation’ software and ‘human pressure index’. Decrease in the potential geographic range of T. govanianum, with a narrow room for conservation due to anthropogenic pressures in the predicted suitable habitats, was clearly revealed from our results. We identified the precise zones within the predicted suitable habitats under the future climatic scenarios (2050 and 2070) for priority conservation to endure the impact of climate change and growing human pressures. These results hold considerable promise in designing the effective conservation strategies for the target species. In the context of post 2020 biodiversity outlook, we advocate augmenting the species distribution models with human footprint index, zonation analysis and the climate change scenarios, to realistically meet the desired conservation targets.
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Acknowledgements
The financial support by the MoEF&CC, Govt. of India through its project ID NMHS/2017-18/MG43/27 under the National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) to MAS is gratefully acknowledged.
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This study was funded by Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) Govt. of India through its project ID NMHS/2017-18/MG43/27 under the National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS).
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MAS conceived the project idea. IIS and SV collected the data. BC, IIS did run the models in consultation with MAS. MAS and IIS wrote the manuscript, while all other authors provided editorial advices and contributed to finalise the manuscript.
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Sofi, I.I., Verma, S., Charles, B. et al. Predicting distribution and range dynamics of Trillium govanianum under climate change and growing human footprint for targeted conservation. Plant Ecol 223, 53–69 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-021-01189-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-021-01189-3