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Impact of climate change on the distribution range and niche dynamics of Himalayan birch, a typical treeline species in Himalayas

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Abstract

Globally, treeline in mountain landscapes is reported to be sensitive to projected warming by climate change. Betula utilis (Himalayan birch), a principal tree species defining the natural treeline in Himalayas, is a potential indicator species to track the signal of climate change. The present study models the ensemble distribution of B. utilis using Biomod2 package for present and future (RCP’s 2.6–8.5 covering 2050 and 2070). The final ensemble model obtained had AUC = 0.886 and TSS = 0.655, thus indicating robustness of the model. We assessed change in the habitat suitability, area expansion and contraction based on ensemble model using SDM Toolbox. The highly suitable area for B. utilis is predicted to shift towards the eastern parts of Himalayas in future, with suitability declining towards the western part of Himalayas. The study, to our best knowledge, for the first time used Ecospat package to assess niche dynamics (i.e. overlap, similarity and equivalency) of B. utilis, which predicted the climatic niche of this treeline species is moderately shifting in future scenarios. Further, the PCA analysis indicated that significant variation (33.45% on PC1 and 24.63% on PC2) exists in the climatic conditions between current and future scenarios. The similarity and equivalency test revealed that B. utilis niche is similar but not identical between current and future climate change scenarios. Hopefully, the results from the present study will contribute significantly in understanding the impacts of climate change in Himalayas with wide implications for scientifically-informed adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are highly thankful to the Head Department of Botany, University of Kashmir for providing necessary facilities during the course of present study. We also express our gratitude to the kind help rendered by the scholars and supporting staff of Centre for Biodiversity and Taxonomy, University of Kashmir who accompanied us on numerous field trips. We would also like to thank various herbaria, mentioned in the manuscript, for providing access to their collections. Additionally, financial support provided by Space Applications Centre (SAC)-ISRO Ahmedabad under HIMADRI and MoEFCC, Govt of India, New Delhi under AICOPTAX Scheme (F. No.22018/12/2015/RE(Tax) to Anzar A Khuroo is greatly acknowledged. We are highly thankful to esteemed reviewers and Guest Editor Special Issue on “Biodiversity & Climate Change: An Indian Perspective” for their critical comments which has helped in improving quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, J & K, 190006, India

    Maroof Hamid, Anzar A. Khuroo & Rameez Ahmad

  2. Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave, Srirampura, Jakkur PO, Bengaluru, 560064, India

    Bipin Charles & N. A. Aravind

  3. Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, Ahmedabad, 380015, India

    C. P. Singh

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Correspondence to Anzar A. Khuroo.

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Communicated by D Behera, K Behera and Sharma.

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Hamid, M., Khuroo, A.A., Charles, B. et al. Impact of climate change on the distribution range and niche dynamics of Himalayan birch, a typical treeline species in Himalayas. Biodivers Conserv 28, 2345–2370 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-018-1641-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-018-1641-8

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