Abstract
Migration is commonly seen as a last resort for households impacted by climate shocks, given the costs and risks that migration typically entails. However, pre-existing labor migration channels may facilitate immediate migration decisions in response to climate shocks. This study explores the relationship between migration and droughts in a rural Sub-Saharan setting from which men commonly migrate in search of non-agricultural employment. We use data from the Men’s Migrations and Women’s Lives project, which includes a longitudinal household panel conducted in rural Mozambique between 2006 and 2017, and combine it with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, a high-resolution climate measure. The fixed-effect models assess the lagged impact of droughts on the labor migration status of male household heads. We find an immediate increase in migration following a drought, peaking in the first year, then diminishing in the second year, with a slight resurgence in the third year. However, by the sixth-year post-drought, the likelihood of being a migrant turns negative. These findings demonstrate the complex associations of climate shocks with labor migration in low-income rural settings.
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The datasets for this study are not publicly available to preserve individuals’ privacy and ensure the confidentiality of the data.
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Acknowledgements
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2022 European Population Conference, Groningen, the Netherlands. We would like to express our gratitude to Prof. R. Muttarak, Dr. R. Hoffmann, and the other participants at EPC 2022 for their invaluable contributions to our discussions. Our special thanks also go to Prof. B. Kye and Prof. K. Kim for their insightful discussions on methodology.
Funding
This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2021S1A5A8070515). The data collection was funded by the US National Institutes of Health (NICHD R01-HD058365; R21-HD048257). The support of the UCLA California Center for Population Research (NICHD P2C-HD058484) is also acknowledged.
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S.H.Y. led the conceptual design, statistical modelling, and write-up. V.A. actively contributed to each of these stages.
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Yoo, S., Agadjanian, V. Drought and migration: a case study of rural Mozambique. Popul Environ 46, 3 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00444-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00444-1