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Environmental change and out-migration: evidence from Nepal

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Abstract

Scholars and activists have hypothesized a connection between environmental change and out-migration. In this paper, we test this hypothesis using data from Nepal. We operationalize environmental change in terms of declining land cover, rising times required to gather organic inputs, increasing population density, and perceived declines in agricultural productivity. In general, environmental change is more strongly related to short- than long-distance moves. Holding constant the effects of other social and economic variables, we find that local moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, declining land cover, and increasing time required to gather firewood. Long-distance moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, but the effect is weaker than in the model of short-distance mobility. We also show that effects of environmental change vary by gender and ethnicity, with women being more affected by changes in the time required to gather fodder and men by changes in the time to gather firewood, and high-caste Hindus generally being less affect than others by environmental change.

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Notes

  1. Land area comes from the 1996 land use survey, in which a team of field workers mapped the area of each neighborhood using compasses and tape measures. These measurements were digitized and used to calculate the exact area of each neighborhood broken down by category of land use. Neighborhoods ranged in size from 46,762 to 3,223,438 square feet, with a mean of 837,850.

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  1. Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA

    Douglas S. Massey

  2. Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson St, Ann Arbor, MI, 48106-1248, USA

    William G. Axinn & Dirgha J. Ghimire

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Massey, D.S., Axinn, W.G. & Ghimire, D.J. Environmental change and out-migration: evidence from Nepal. Popul Environ 32, 109–136 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0119-8

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