Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Cantons are administrative units that are roughly equivalent to counties in the United States.

  2. This three-stage sampling procedure provides less-precise estimates than a simple random sample of households but offers considerable cost and logistical advantages, particularly for sampling rare migrant types.

  3. This is consistent with previous studies showing that migration rates of older adults in rural Ecuador are very low (Barbieri et al. 2008; Bilsborrow et al. 1987; Gray 2009a).

  4. For example, in communities with 10–19 at-risk households, up to 4 households were selected from each stratum, with a minimum total of 7 households and a maximum of 10. In a community with 10 nonmigrant households, 5 households sending a migrant to an urban destination, and 2 sending a migrant to an international destination, the sample selected would comprise the 2 sending to an international destination, 4 to an urban destination, and 4 nonmigrant households, yielding a total of 10. If instead there were 16 nonmigrant households, 1 urban-sending household, and 1 international-sending household, 4 nonmigrant households would be selected at random to go with the single urban-sending and international-sending households, and 1 additional household would be selected at random—in this case from the nonmigrant stratum—to attain a minimum of 7 households.

  5. The most relevant previous study evaluating recall in migration surveys is Smith and Thomas (2003), who found in Malaysia that retrospective recall of the same move after a 12-year lag introduced a median date error of less than 1 year and underreported number of interdistrict moves by only 5 %.

  6. Using these data, we estimate that 75 % of local movers, 70 % of internal migrants, and 85 % of international migrants departed as individuals rather than as part of whole households.

  7. As an alternative specification of the environmental context, indices combining various measures of topography (e.g., slope, elevation, and aspect) and climate (e.g., rainfall, temperature, and seasonality) were examined, but the measures described earlier provided as good a fit and a more parsimonious explanation.

  8. Additional temporal lags (e.g., two years) were explored but were consistently found to be nonsignificant.

  9. Men and women contribute 4,024 and 3,265 person-years, respectively, to the data set. Similarly, land-poor and nonpoor households contribute 2,992 and 4,297 person-years, respectively.

  10. For example, 63 % of adult men in the study areas worked in own-farm agriculture and 43 % worked in off-farm agriculture in 2008 versus 47 % and 9 % of women, respectively.

References

  • Allison, P. (1984). Event history analysis. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Angeles, G., Guilkey, D., & Mroz, T. (2005). The impact of community-level variables on individual-level outcomes: Theoretical results and applications. Sociological Methods and Research, 34, 76–121.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrett, C. (2008). Poverty traps and resource dynamics in smallholder agrarian systems. In R. Dellink & A. Ruijs (Eds.), Economics of poverty, environment and natural-resource use (pp. 17–40). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bates, D. (2002). Environmental refugees? Classifying human migrations caused by environmental change. Population and Environment, 23, 465–477.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbieri, A., Carr, D., & Bilsborrow, R. (2008). Migration within the frontier: The second generation colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Population Research and Policy Review, 28, 291–320.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biermann, F., & Boas, I. (2010). Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a global governance system to protect climate refugees. Global Environmental Politics, 10, 60–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilsborrow, R., Hugo, G., Oberai, A., & Zlotnik, H. (1997). International migration statistics: Guidelines for improving data collection systems. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilsborrow, R., McDevitt, T., Kossoudji, S., & Fuller, R. (1987). The impact of origin community characteristics on rural-urban out-migration in a developing country. Demography, 24, 191–210.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilsborrow, A., Oberai, S., & Standing, G. (1984). Migration surveys in low income countries: Guidelines for survey and questionnaire design. London, UK: Croom Helm.

    Google Scholar 

  • Black, R., Bennett, S., Thomas, S., & Beddington, J. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478, 447–449.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown, M. (2008). Famine early warning systems and remote sensing data. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dercon, S. (2002). Income risk, coping strategies, and safety nets. World Bank Research Observer, 17, 141–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dillon, A., Mueller, V., & Salau, S. (2011). Migratory responses to agricultural risk in northern Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93, 1048–1061.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellis, F. (2000). Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Findley, S. (1994). Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28, 539–553.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • François, G. (2011). Why the numbers don’t add up: A review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes. Global Environmental Change, 21, S41–S49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fussell, E., Sastry, N., & VanLandingham, M. (2010). Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Population and Environment, 31(1–3), 20–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glasner, T., & van der Vaart, W. (2009). Applications of calendar instruments in social surveys: A review. Quality and Quantity, 43, 333–349.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C. (2009a). Environment, land and rural out-migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Development, 37, 457–468.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C. (2009b). Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Population and Environment, 30, 193–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C. (2010). Gender, natural capital and migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Environment and Planning A, 42, 678–696.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C. (2011). Soil quality and human migration in Kenya and Uganda. Global Environmental Change, 21, 421–430.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C., & Mueller, V. (2012a). Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development, 40, 134–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C., & Mueller, V. (2012b). Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 6000–6005.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groen, J., & Polivka, A. (2010). Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas. Demography, 47, 821–844.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutmann, M., Deane, G., Lauster, N., & Peri, A. (2005). Two population-environment regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990. Population and Environment, 27, 191–225.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halliday, T. (2006). Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54, 893–925.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry, S., Schoumaker, B., & Beauchemin, C. (2004). The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: A multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Population and Environment, 25, 423–460.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans, R., Cameron, S., Parra, J., Jones, P., & Jarvis, A. (2005). Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965–1978.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hugo, G. (1996). Environmental concerns and international migration. International Migration Review, 30, 105–131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). Climate change 2007: Synthesis report (Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch

  • Johnson, R., & DaVanzo, J. (1998). Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in Peninsular Malaysia. Demography, 35, 97–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jokisch, B. (2007, February). Ecuador: Diversity in migration. Migration Information Source. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute. Retrieved from http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=575

  • Jokisch, B., & Pribilsky, J. (2002). The panic to leave: Economic crisis and the “new emigration” from Ecuador. International Migration Review, 40, 75–101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kazianga, H., & Udry, C. (2006). Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance, and drought in rural Burkina Faso. Journal of Development Economics, 79, 413–446.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kniveton, D., Schmidt-Verkerk, K., Smith, C., & Black, R. (2008). Climate change and migration: Improving methodologies to estimate flows. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kolenikov, S., & Angeles, G. (2009). Socioeconomic status measurement with discrete proxy variables: Is principal component analysis a reliable answer? Review of Income and Wealth, 55, 128–165.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laczko, F., & Aghazarm, C. (2009). Migration, environment and climate change: Assessing the evidence. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leyk, S., Maclaurin, G., Hunter, L., Nawrotzki, R., Twine, W., Collinson, M., & Erasmus, B. (2012). Spatially and temporally varying associations between temporary outmigration and natural resource availability in resource-dependent rural communities in South Africa: A modeling framework. Applied Geography, 34, 559–568.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S., Alberti, M., Folke, C., Moran, E., … Taylor, W. (2007). Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science, 317, 1513–1516.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D., Axinn, W., & Ghimire, D. (2010). Environmental change and out-migration: Evidence from Nepal. Population and Environment, 32(2–3), 109–136.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D., & Espinosa, K. (1997). What’s driving Mexico-U.S. migration? A theoretical, empirical, and policy review. American Journal of Sociology, 102, 939–999.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D., & Zenteno, R. (2000). A validation of the ethnosurvey: The case of Mexico-U.S. migration. International Migration Review, 34, 766–793.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munshi, K. (2003). Networks in the modern economy: Mexican migrants in the U.S. labor market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 549–599.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1997). Environmental refugees. Population and Environment, 19, 167–182.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, M., & Stark, O. (1989). Consumption smoothing, migration, and marriage: Evidence from rural India. Journal of Political Economy, 97, 905–926.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanchez, P. (2002). Soil fertility and hunger in Africa. Science, 295, 2019–2020.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J., & Thomas, D. (2003). Remembrances of things past: Test-retest reliability of retrospective migration histories. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 166, 23–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S., & McCarty, C. (1996). Demographic effects of natural disasters: A case study of Hurricane Andrew. Demography, 33, 265–275.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S., & McCarty, C. (2009). Fleeing the storm(s): An examination of evacuation behavior during Florida’s 2004 hurricane season. Demography, 46, 127–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Souris, M. (2006). Ecuador 30m DEM. Marseille, France : L’Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. Retrieved from http://www.rsgis.ait.ac.th/∼souris/ecuador.htm

  • Stark, O., & Bloom, D. (1985). The new economics of labor migration. American Economic Review, 75, 173–178.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change: The Stern review. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warner, K., Ehrhart, C., de Sherbinin, A., Adamo, S., & Chai-Onn, T. (2009). In search of shelter: Mapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement (Report). Retrieved from http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/documents/clim-migr-report-june09_final.pdf

  • World Bank. (2004). Ecuador poverty assessment (Report No. 27061-EC). Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/04/4261530/ecuador-poverty-assessment

Download references

Acknowledgements

Funding for this research was provided by the National Institutes of Health (HD052092, HD061752, AG000155). We are indebted to our Ecuadorian partners at the Centro de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo Social, as well as to the team of field researchers and the participating communities. We thank Luis Vallejo and Brian Frizzelle for their respective efforts on data cleaning and spatial analysis. Helpful comments on a previous draft were provided by Jason Bremner.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Saunders Hall, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3220, USA

    Clark Gray

  2. Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA

    Richard Bilsborrow

Authors
  1. Clark Gray
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Richard Bilsborrow
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Clark Gray.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 8 Results of the polychoric principal components analysis of land quality
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gray, C., Bilsborrow, R. Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador. Demography 50, 1217–1241 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0192-y

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0192-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation