Abstract
An attempt is made to investigate the various atmospheric and oceanic conditions that contributed to the genesis and rapid intensification (RI) of the super cyclonic storms (SUCS) formed over the north indian ocean (NIO) basin during 1982–2020. The vertical wind shear supported genesis, with values being weak to moderate in all cases. The Genesis potential parameter was> 30 in four out of six cases, whereas Gonu and Odisha SUCS had values ≤ 30. Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave was the dominant of all the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs), followed by Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) before their genesis. In the case of Amphan, all the three CCEWs (i.e., MJO, ER, and Kelvin wave) were present. The ocean conditions were more conducive for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis than the atmospheric conditions. Both sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) supported the cyclogenesis. In most cases, the setting up of the pre-genesis scenario was heavily influenced by the ocean characteristics, whereas the atmospheric conditions were not that supportive. The environmental conditions that prevailed before RI showed the presence of thick warm waters, a sufficient supply of moisture at the middle of the troposphere, and moderate wind shear in all cases. Sea surface temperature, mid-tropospheric relative humidity, and low-level relative vorticity all had a substantial role in the RI process of all SUCS storms across the NIO basin. During the RI days, TCHP ≥ 60 kJ cm−2 was observed for Amphan and Gonu, with thick barrier layers for all cases. Gonu encountered a warm core eddy along its track, which provided extra fuel for the RI process. All six TCs are slow to moderate moving ones, which facilitated them to spend sufficient time over the ocean surface and interact with the warm waters to get positive feedback for the RI process.
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taken from ERA-5 global analyses data set. Here, same color scale is used but for different parameters
taken from ERA-5 global analyses. Since TC5 did not undergo RI stage, the wind shear variation for it is not shown here
taken from ERA-5 global analyses. Since TC5 did not undergo RI stage, the relative vorticity variation for it is not shown here
taken from ERA-5 global analyses. Since TC5 did not undergo RI stage, the mid tropospheric RH variation for it is not shown here
taken from CMEMS, Europe
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Acknowledgments
The data sets used in this study are available on the corresponding websites of Era-5 (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5), CMEMS (https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/), NCEP (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html). Tropical cyclone best track and the associated translational speed data sets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php) and IBTracs (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/) portals.
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The Department of Science and Technology (Government of India) supported the research under the ‘INSPIRE fellowship’ scheme with grant number IF180109.
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DP contributed to the methodology, software, investigation, validation, visualization, and writing the initial draft. JP was involved in the conceptualization, methodology, supervision, manuscript writing, reviewing and editing, infrastructure. AR helped in the scientific help, manuscript writing, reviewing and editing.
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Paul, D., Panda, J. & Routray, A. Ocean and atmospheric characteristics associated with the cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of NIO super cyclonic storms during 1981–2020. Nat Hazards 114, 261–289 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05389-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05389-6