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Fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with applications to Kunming city, China

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Abstract

China is prone to highly frequent earthquakes due to specific geographical location, which could cause significant losses to society and economy. The task of seismic hazard analysis is to estimate the potential level of ground motion parameters that would be produced by future earthquakes. In this paper, a novel method based on fuzzy logic techniques and probabilistic approach is proposed for seismic hazard analysis (FPSHA). In FPSHA, we employ fuzzy sets for quantification of earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance, and fuzzy inference rules for ground motion attenuation relationships. The membership functions for earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance are provided based on expert judgments, and the construction of fuzzy rules for peak ground acceleration relationships is also based on expert judgment. This methodology enables to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the process of seismic hazard analysis. The advantage of the proposed method is in its efficiency, reliability, practicability, and precision. A case study is investigated for seismic hazard analysis of Kunming city in Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China. The results of the proposed fuzzy logic-based model are compared to other models, which confirms the accuracy in predicting the probability of exceeding a certain level of the peak ground acceleration. Further, the results can provide a sound basis for decision making of disaster reduction and prevention in Yunnan province.

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Acknowledgements

The financial support received from the National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51678209, 51378162, 51178150), the Research fund from Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2013BAJ08B01), the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory for Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering (SLDRCE12-MB-04), and the Specialized Research fund for the doctoral program of higher education (20112302110005) is gratefully appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Group of Reliability and Risk Engineering (RARE), School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Huanghe Road 73, Harbin, 150090, People’s Republic of China

    Jelena M. Andrić & Da-Gang Lu

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  1. Jelena M. Andrić
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  2. Da-Gang Lu
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Correspondence to Jelena M. Andrić.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 2, 3.

Table 2 Historical earthquake data (1916–2015) for Kunming, Yunnan Province
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Table 3 Peak ground acceleration derived from hazard curve
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Andrić, J.M., Lu, DG. Fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with applications to Kunming city, China. Nat Hazards 89, 1031–1057 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3007-z

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