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Seismic Hazard Analysis from Deterministic Method Using Fuzzy Logic in Anzali Port

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Abstract

The land of Iran due to being located on the orogenic belt Alpine-Himalayas, one of the seismic regions of the world, it has always suffered heavy damage from earthquakes. Seismic hazard analysis is the determination of the potential level of ground motion parameters that might be generated by future earthquakes. Due to the diversity of parameters which might influence the occurrence of earthquakes, seismic hazard analysis like many other issues in seismology is a complicated problem, hence, it creates inevitable uncertainties in consequences. Therefore, Fuzzy logic is a suitable tool which is used as a decision-making method to solve problems and to model uncertainties and ambiguities. In this study, seismic hazard analysis is performed based on fuzzy logic technique and deterministic method (FDSHA). Also, the three input parameters, the earthquake maximum magnitude (Mmax), source-to-site distance (R), and fault type (F) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the output parameter are defined as fuzzy sets. Membership functions for input and output parameters are determined based on the judgment of the expert and fuzzy rules for peak ground acceleration according to the input parameters and the judgment of the expert is defined. The study area is Anzali Port, which is located in the Alborz orogenic belt in northern Iran. The results of estimating deterministic seismic hazard using fuzzy system show that the peak ground acceleration in Anzali Port is 0.55 g which is obtained from seismic source with a maximum magnitude of 8 with a faulting mechanism oblique at a distance of 72 km from it. Also, the results obtained from seismic hazard analysis by a deterministic method based on fuzzy logic, are in good agreement with the results obtained from other methods for Anzali Port.

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Acknowledgement

We would like to show our gratitude to Nourbaksh Mirzaei and S. H. Moosavi-Bafroei, for providing us with the coordinates of seismic sources. We used the software packages Mathlab (STAMMLER 2015) for data processing and plotting.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Nowshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Nowshahr, Iran

    Narges Afsari

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Nowshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Nowshahr, Iran

    Mohammad Saleh Abdipour

  3. Department of Basic Science, Faculty of Physics, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran

    Fataneh Taghizadeh-Farahmand

Authors
  1. Narges Afsari
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  2. Mohammad Saleh Abdipour
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  3. Fataneh Taghizadeh-Farahmand
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Correspondence to Narges Afsari.

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Communicated by: H. Babaie

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Afsari, N., Abdipour, M.S. & Taghizadeh-Farahmand, F. Seismic Hazard Analysis from Deterministic Method Using Fuzzy Logic in Anzali Port. Earth Sci Inform 15, 563–572 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-021-00742-y

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