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Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

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Abstract

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Ratchadapiseksomphot Endowment Fund 2017 of Chulalongkorn University to S Pailoplee. Thanks are also extended to T. Pailoplee for the preparation of the draft manuscript. The Office of Research Affairs, Chulalongkorn University, is also thanked for a critical review and improved English. The thoughtful comments and suggestions by T Braun, the associate editors, and M Choowong as well as anonymous reviewers that significantly enhanced the quality of this manuscript are acknowledged.

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  1. Morphology of Earth Surface and Advanced Geohazards in Southeast Asia Research Unit (MESA RU), Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand

    Prayot Puangjaktha & Santi Pailoplee

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  1. Prayot Puangjaktha
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  2. Santi Pailoplee
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Correspondence to Santi Pailoplee.

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First version (September 16, 2016). Second version (March 20, 2017). Third version (June 20, 2017). Fourth version (August 31, 2017)

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Puangjaktha, P., Pailoplee, S. Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes. J Seismol 22, 303–313 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9706-9

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