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Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

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Abstract

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.

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Acknowledgments

This work was jointly sponsored by Integrated Innovation Academic Center: IIAC Chulalongkorn University Centenary Academic Development Project (CU56-CC04), the Higher Education Promotion and National Research University Project of Thailand, Office of the Higher Education Commission (CC508B). Thanks also extend to T. Pailoplee for the preparation of the draft manuscript. We thank the Publication Counseling Unit (PCU), the faculty of science, Chulalongkorn University for a critical review and improved the English. We acknowledged thoughtful comments and suggestions by the Editor-In-Chief and anonymous reviewers which enhanced the quality of this manuscript significantly.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earthquake and Tectonic Geology Research Unit (EATGRU), Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand

    Santi Pailoplee & Montri Choowong

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  1. Santi Pailoplee
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  2. Montri Choowong
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Correspondence to Santi Pailoplee.

Additional information

After this manuscript had been submitted for publication, the other great events of Mw 8.6 and 8.2 generated nearby the Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A) on April 11, 2012 (Fig. 1). Comparing with the Mw 8.6 earthquake generated on March 28, 2005, the calculating 7-year return period of these magnitude levels are conform with the results obtained in this study which revealed the return period of earthquake 8.0–8.5 along the zone A are 9–20 years.

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Pailoplee, S., Choowong, M. Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia. Arab J Geosci 6, 4993–5006 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0749-5

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