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Climate change flood risks and post-flood agricultural and non-agricultural economic losses in flood-prone Bait households Muzaffargarh district of Punjab, Pakistan

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Abstract

In global perspective, climate change severity has amplified natural disasters while consecutive frequency of flood disasters more particularly in developing countries like Pakistan. These flood disasters have raised economic losses of flood-prone farming community inhabited in neighboring of rivers. This research work focused to investigate the flood risk household level effects on post flood losses in Punjab, Pakistan. In the couple of decades, Pakistan faced consecutive and frequent destructive flooding directional to millions of peoples displaced, extensive homes destruction, numerous fatalities, crops and cattle's losses. In this study per-tested and well-developed questionnaire was used for data collection of 380 flood-prone affected households of district Muzaffargarh. In generating households actual score of vulnerability from literature, indicators of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure were applied where household level risk was determined as function of hazard and vulnerability. In empirical estimation, Kruskal–Wallis one-way variance analysis was employed to measure the relationship in household risk and flood impact in term of both non-agricultural and agricultural losses. Findings of the study illustrated that losses owing to flood is not a random function of natures impact while households having higher level of flood risk confronted higher level of non-agricultural and agricultural losses. These findings focused the significance of addressing underlying risk factors to reduce household vulnerability rather than simply responding to post crises emergencies. Higher flood risk areas household vulnerability must focus on priority basis through developing flood resistant homes, ease access of emergency food supply and evolving advance structure of early warning system. In reducing agricultural losses concerned authorities need to implement mature measures. Concerned authorities must assist crop farmers and vulnerable households to mitigate risks by using actions such as diversifying crops, execution of crop insurance policy and offering crop protection feasible actions regarding climate events such as floods.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction.

  2. Government of Pakistan.

  3. United Nations Development Programme.

  4. United Nations Children Funds.

  5. Provincial Disaster Management Authority.

  6. Temporary islands are usually generated within the area of the river in the local language Saraiki is formally known as Bait.

  7. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.

  8. Gross Domestic Product.

  9. Provincial Disaster Management Authority.

  10. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

  11. Districts categorized according to flood vulnerability disaster high, medium, low https://pdma.punjab.gov.pk/system/files/vnl.JPG

  12. Pakistan Metrological Department.

  13. District Disaster Management Authority.

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  1. Department of Economics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan

    Dilshad Ahmad

  2. Department of Economics, Preston University, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Afzal

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DA analyzed data, methodology, results and discussion, conclusion and suggestions and manuscript write up whereas both DA and MA finalized and proof read the manuscript and both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Appendix

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Table 10 Exposure indicators assessment classes, weights and sources
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10,

Table 11 Sensitivity indicators assessment classes, weights and sources
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11,

Table 12 Adaptive capacity indicators assessment classes, weights and sources
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12 and

Table 13 Hazards indicators assessment classes, weights and sources
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13.

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Ahmad, D., Afzal, M. Climate change flood risks and post-flood agricultural and non-agricultural economic losses in flood-prone Bait households Muzaffargarh district of Punjab, Pakistan. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04674-7

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