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Nexus between vulnerability and adaptive capacity of drought-prone rural households in northern Bangladesh

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Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. The appraisal of household vulnerability and capacity to adapt under climate change is therefore crucial for developing effective disaster risk reduction policies. This study explored the nexus between vulnerability and capacity of rural drought-prone households using survey data of 400 respondents from northern Bangladesh. Through extensive rigorous literature review, 22 and 25 indicators were employed to develop the vulnerability and capacity index, respectively. Co-occurrence network analysis was employed to show the nexus among different classes of capacity and vulnerability. Spearman correlation was also performed to analyze the nexus between vulnerability and capacity. The results reveal that households’ vulnerability varies across livelihood assets (human, social, financial, physical, and natural), but capacity follows a similar distribution pattern. A significant negative association was found between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, whereas the strong correlations between social and human capital, human and financial capital, social and financial capital, and physical and natural capital were identified in this study. Future projection (up to 2024) using support vector machine algorithm shows that overall drought adaptive capacity will increase, while vulnerability will decrease. The outcomes of this study would help planners and policy-makers in planning and taking proper initiatives that might be useful for adopting efficient disaster risk reduction strategies.

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Acknowledgements

We greatly acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for improving the quality of the manuscript. We would like to thank the participants of the study regions, northern Bangladesh, who cordially involved in this work. We also greatly acknowledge the Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, for other sorts of supports.

Funding

This work was supported by Researchers Supporting Project number (RSP-2020/100), King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh

    Roquia Salam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, Badhon Kumar Shill & Md. Hasanuzzaman

  2. Department of Agribusiness, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh

    G. M. Monirul Alam

  3. School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Melbourne, Australia

    G. M. Monirul Alam

  4. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, Anhui, China

    Md. Morshadul Hasan

  5. Department of Biochemistry, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box: 2455, Riyadh, 11451, Saudi Arabia

    Sobhy M. Ibrahim

  6. Program in Public Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China

    Roger C. Shouse

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  1. Roquia Salam
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  2. Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam
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Contributions

R.S. and B.K.S. designed, planned, conceptualized, and drafted the original manuscript; M.H. and R.S. were involved in statistical analysis and interpretation; A.R.M.T.I. and G.M.M.A. contributed to instrumental setup, data analysis, and validation; M.M.S. and S.M.I. contributed to editing the manuscript, literature review, and proofreading; G.M.M.A. and A.R.M. T.I. were involved in software, mapping, and proofreading during the manuscript drafting stage.

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Correspondence to Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam or G. M. Monirul Alam.

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Salam, R., Towfiqul Islam, A.R.M., Shill, B.K. et al. Nexus between vulnerability and adaptive capacity of drought-prone rural households in northern Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 106, 509–527 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04473-z

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