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A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran

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Abstract

The urban transportation sector in Iran handles high fuel consumption and CO2 emission. The research motivation was the investigation of urban transportation to estimate present and future emissions, find the comparative and quantitative outcomes, and cluster the influential variables. Hence, the main aim of the research was to provide a model framework to estimate the urban transpiration effects on the fuel consumption, CO2 emission, and air pollution concentration in Mashhad city (2005–2030) besides producing the mitigation measures on two national emission scenarios. A dynamic model was used based on the multiple intersections among variables and different subsystems to explain the vehicle-based fuel consumptions and induced equivalent-CO2 emissions. The results revealed an increasing trend for total emission (Gg) from 3791 Gg to 6226 Gg during 2005–2020, induced by urban transportation in Mashhad. The emissions equal to 7227 and 8118 Gg can be predicted for 2025 and 2030 under a national scenario, namely business as usual (BAU). Under shed of a different scenario, namely the sixth strategic development plan (SDP) of Iran, the emission can be prospected equal to 3520 and 2925 Gg for similar time (2025–2030) in Mashhad city. The comparative results revealed the mitigation measures for all model variables, e.g., 5,193 Gg reduction in transportation-induced CO2 emission, in 2030. The financial resource for mitigation target of CO2 emission in the Mashhad, until 2030, estimated as 415 million dollars, which is consistently half part of the financial budget of Mashhad municipality in 2020. Showing three variables of car inventory, fuel consumption, and CO2 emission, as the driving powers of the transportation-induced CO2 emissions, the proposed model suggested reconsidering alternative urban vehicle fleets to mitigate emissions by low-emission vehicles or public plans.

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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank anonymous reviewers for their essential comments and technical suggestions on data interpretations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, Isfahan, Iran

    Elham Heidari

  2. Department of Urban Planning and Design, Minoodasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Minoodasht, Iran

    Sona Bikdeli

  3. Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, Isfahan, Iran

    Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar

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  1. Elham Heidari
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  2. Sona Bikdeli
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Correspondence to Elham Heidari.

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Heidari, E., Bikdeli, S. & Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R. A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran. Environ Dev Sustain 25, 4217–4236 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02240-7

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