Abstract
The long-term variations in meteorological drought and its large-scale climate patterns in each season in Central Asia from 1901 to 2015 remain unclear. Here, this issue is addressed using meteorology measurements and reanalysis data through correlation and composite analyses. The drought intensity index (DII) and extent index (DEI) do not exhibit significant linear trends from 1901 to 2015 but do exhibit interannual to interdecadal variations. Both the DII and DEI are highly correlated with the tropical Niño 4 sea surface temperature (SST) and extratropical atmospheric teleconnections, including the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Arctic oscillation (AO), but with seasonal discrepancies in terms of the degree of influence. The winter drought is strongly linked to both the negative EA and negative EAWR patterns, while spring and autumn drought are strongly linked to the negative EAWR and negative EA patterns, respectively. In the winter, spring, and autumn, drought is also closely linked to below normal Niño 4 SST. The links to EA and EAWR patterns are mainly derived from their impacts on precipitation in the central and northern sectors, while the link to Niño 4 SST is mainly derived from its impacts on precipitation in the southern sector. By considering both drought intensity and drought extent, the ten extreme drought years for each season are selected and, through composite analysis, their large-scale climate patterns are studied. The extreme drought generally occurs in the contexts of a negative EA pattern in winter, a negative EAWR pattern in spring, and a negative AO pattern in autumn. As an exception, summer drought is weakly correlated with Niño 4 SST and is not correlated with extratropical atmospheric teleconnections.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and materials
All used data and materials have been described in detail in the manuscript.
References
Andreadis KM, Clark EA, Wood AW et al (2005) Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. J Hydrometeorol 6(6):985–1001. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM450.1
Ashraf M, Routray JK (2015) Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and drought in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 77(1):229–254. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1593-1
Barlow M, Cullen H, Lyon B (2002) Drought in central and Southwest Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation. J Clim 15:697–700
Barlow M, Zaitchik B, Paz S et al (2016) A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J Clim 29(23):8547–8574. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1
Bastos A, Coauthors (2016) European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic pattern coupling. Nat Commun 7:10315. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10315
Bothe O, Fraedrich K, Zhu XH (2012) Precipitation climate of Central Asia and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 108(3-4):345–354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0537-2
Chen FH, Huang W (2017) Multi-scale climate variations in the arid Central Asia. Adv Clim Chang Res 8(1):1–2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.02.002
Dai AG (2011) Characteristics and trends in various forms of the palmer drought severity index during 1900-2008. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D12115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015541
Damberg L, AghaKouchak A (2014) Global trends and patterns of droughts from space. Theor Appl Climatol 117(3):441–448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1019-5
de Beurs KM, Henebry GM, Owsley BC et al (2018) Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia. Environ Res Lett 13(6):065018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d0
Deng HJ, Chen YN (2017) Influences of recent climate change and human activities on water storage variations in Central Asia. J Hydrol 544:46–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.006
Farah P (2015) Energy security, water resources, environmental concerns and economic development in Central Asia. World Scientific, London
Ganguli P, Ganguly AR (2016) Robustness of meteorological droughts in dynamically downscaled climate simulations. J Am Water Resour Assoc 52(1):138–167. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12374
Gao T, Yu J, Paek H (2017) Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific. Theor Appl Climatol 129:815–831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1801-2
Gerlitz L, Steirou E, Schneider C et al (2018) Variability of the cold season climate in Central Asia. Part I: weather types and their tropical and extratropical drivers. J Clim 31(18):7185–7207. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0715.1
Guan XF, Yang LM, Zhang YX et al (2019) Spatial distribution, temporal variation, and transport characteristics of atmospheric water vapor over Central Asia and the arid region of China. Glob Planet Change 172:159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.06.007
Guo H, Bao AM, Liu T et al (2018a) Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966–2015. Sci Total Environ 624:1523–1538. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.120
Guo H, Bao AM, Ndayisaba F et al (2018b) Space-time characterization of drought events and their impacts on vegetation in Central Asia. J Hydrol 564:1165–1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.081
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(8):1149–1165. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1149
Hoell A, Funk C (2013) The ENSO-related West Pacific Sea surface temperature gradient. J Clim 26:9545–9562. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00344.1
Hoell A, Barlow M, Saini R (2012) The leading pattern of intraseasonal and interannual Indian Ocean precipitation variability and its relationship with Asian circulation during the boreal cold season. J Clim 25:7509–7526. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00572.1
Hu ZY, Zhou QM, Chen X et al (2017) Variations and changes of annual precipitation in Central Asia over the last century. Int J Climatol 37(S1):157–170. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4988
Hu ZY, Zhou QM, Chen X et al (2018) Evaluation of three global gridded precipitation data sets in Central Asia based on rain gauge observations. Int J Climatol 38(9):3475–3493. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5510
Hua LJ, Zhong LH, Ma ZG (2017) Decadal transition of moisture sources and transport in northwestern China during summer from 1982 to 2010. J Geophys Res Atmos 122(23):522–540. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027728
Hurrell JW (1996) Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperature. Geophys Res Lett 23:665–668
Li Z, Chen YN, Wang Y et al (2016) Dynamic changes in terrestrial net primary production and their effects on evapotranspiration. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 20(6):2169–2178. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2169-2016
Lim Y-K (2015) The East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection in the North Atlantic: climate impact and relation to Rossby wave propagation. Clim Dyn 44(11-12):3211–3222. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2381-4
Lioubimtseva E, Henebry GM (2009) Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. J Arid Environ 73(11):963–977. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.04.022
Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6):693–712. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181
Peng D, Zhou T, Zhang L, Wu B (2018) Human contribution to the increasing summer precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013. J Clim 31(19):8005–8021. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0843.1
Rana S, McGregor J, Renwick J (2019) Dominant modes of winter precipitation variability over central Southwest Asia and inter-decadal change in the ENSO teleconnection. Clim Dyn 53(9-10):5689–5707. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04889-9
Schiemann R, Luthi D, Vidale PL et al (2008) The precipitation climate of Central Asia-intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region. Int J Climatol 28(3):295–314. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1532
Schubert SD, Stewart RE, Wang H et al (2016) Global meteorological drought: a synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits. J Clim 29(11):3989–4019
Sheffield J, Wood EF (2011) Drought: past problems and future scenarios. Taylor and Francis, London, p 210
Sheffield J, Andreadis KM, Wood EF et al (2009) Global and continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events. J Clim 22(8):1962–1981. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2722.1
Slivinski LC, Compo GP, Whitaker JS et al (2019) Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the twentieth century reanalysis system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 145(724):2876–2908. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Sugg M, Runkle J, Leeper R et al (2020) A scoping review of drought impacts on health and society in North America. Clim Chang 162:1177–1195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02848-6
Syed FS, Giorgi F, Pal JS, Keay K (2010) Regional climate model simulation of winter climate over central–Southwest Asia, with emphasis on NAO and ENSO effects. Int J Climatol 30:220–235. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1887
Tao H, Borth H, Fraedrich K et al (2014) Drought and wetness variability in the Tarim River basin and connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 34:2678–2684. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3867
Vicente-Serrano SM, Quiring SM, Pena-Gallardo M et al (2020) A review of environmental droughts: increased risk under global warming? Earth Sci Rev 201:102953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102953
Xu GB, Liu XH, Trouet V et al (2019) Regional drought shifts (1710–2010) in East Central Asia and linkages with atmospheric circulation recorded in tree-ring δ18O. Clim Dyn 52(1-2):713–727. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4215-2
Xu HJ, Wang XP, Zhang XX (2016) Decreased vegetation growth in response to summer drought in Central Asia from 2000 to 2012. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 52:390–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2016.07.010
Yin ZY, Wang H, Liu X (2014) A comparative study on precipitation climatology and interannual variability in the lower midlatitude East Asia and Central Asia. J Clim 27:7830–7848. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00052.1
Zhai JQ, Huang JL, Su BD et al (2017) Intensity–area–duration analysis of droughts in China 1960–2013. Clim Dyn 48:151–168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3066-y
Zhang RB, Zhang TW, Kelgenbayev N et al (2017) A 189-year tree-ring record of drought for the Dzungarian Alatau, arid Central Asia. J Asian Earth Sci 148:305–314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2017.05.003
Zhao Y, Huang AN, Zhou Y et al (2014) Impact of the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over Central Asia on the summer rainfall in the Tarim Basin, China. J Clim 27(12):4721–4732. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00456.1
Zhao Y, Zhang HQ (2016) Impacts of SST warming in tropical Indian Ocean on CMIP5 model-projected summer rainfall changes over Central Asia. Clim Dyn 46(9-10):3223–3238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2765-0
Zhou Y, Huang AN, Zhao Y et al (2015) Influence of the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Indian Ocean in march on the summer rainfall in Xinjiang. Theor Appl Climatol 119(3-4):781–789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1149-4
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20020202), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41790424), the Key Program from CAS (ZDRW-ZS-2017-4), and the Key Program from CAS (QYZDBSSW-DQC005). The gridded precipitation dataset was available through the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (CRU), and the atmospheric circulation datasets, including geopotential height, meridional, and zonal wind, were available through the NOAA-CIRES twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/20thC_Rean/). The atmospheric circulation indices and SST indices were acquired from the website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/.
Funding
Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20020202);
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41790424);
Key Program from CAS (ZDRW-ZS-2017-4; QYZDBSSW-DQC005);
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
XZ and QG designed the research; MH and MB analyzed the data and illustrated the plots; XZ wrote the paper. QG revised the original paper.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
Code availability
Not applicable.
Ethical approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent to publish
Yes
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
ESM 1
(DOCX 601 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, X., He, M., Bai, M. et al. Meteorological drought and its large-scale climate patterns in each season in Central Asia from 1901 to 2015. Climatic Change 166, 41 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03131-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03131-y