Abstract
Analyzing and quantifying the deformation process of landslides is of paramount importance in facilitating landslide early warning. As such, this study is committed to proposing a universal phenomenological model for deformation stages division and early warning of landslides based on the kinematic features. First, five landslide deformation patterns were classified based on the creep theory, and suggestions for stage division of each deformation pattern are presented. Then, the statistical characteristics of landslide velocity were analyzed, and a probability-based deformation stage division method was proposed. Finally, the Comprehensive Standardized Deformation Index (CSDI) model, which includes the calculation of the \({CSDI}^{M-M}\) (Min-Max normalization) and \({CSDI}^{M}\) (Mean normalization) was proposed and verified in 24 landslides worldwide. The results show that, except for the oscillating pattern, the \({CSDI}^{M-M}\) is feasible in the stages division of all deformation patterns with a strong correspondence with the actual state of the landslides. The \({CSDI}^{M}\) is a reliable landslide warning criterion and threshold determination method, as it is effective in the early warning of imminent landslides with a low false alarm rate. The CSDI model provides new insight into the division of landslide deformation stages and landslide risk assessment.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson MG, Holcombe E, Blake JR, Ghesquire F, Holm-Nielsen N, Fisseha T (2011) Reducing landslide risk in communities: evidence from the Eastern Caribbean. Appl Geogr 31(2):590–599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.11.001
Bai D, Lu G, Zhu Z, Zhu X, Tao C, Fang J (2022) A hybrid early warning method for the landslide acceleration process based on automated monitoring data. Appl Sci 12(13):6478. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12136478
Bao L, Zhang G, Hu X, Wu S, Liu X (2021) Stage division of landslide deformation and prediction of critical sliding based on inverse logistic function. Energies. 14(4):1091. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041091
Carey JM, Massey CI, Lyndsell B, Petley DN (2019) Displacement mechanisms of slow-moving landslides in response to changes in porewater pressure and dynamic stress. Earth Surf Dyn 7(3):707–722. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-707-2019
Carlà T, Intrieri E, Farina P, Casagli N (2017a) A new method to identify impending failure in rock slopes. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 93:76–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2017.01.015
Carlà T, Farina P, Intrieri E, Botsialas K, Casagli N (2017b) On the monitoring and early-warning of brittle slope failures in hard rock masses : examples from an open-pit mine. Eng Geol 228:71–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.08.007
Cascini L, Calvello M, Grimaldi GM (2013) Displacement trends of slow-moving landslides: classification and forecasting. J Mt Sci 11(3):592–606. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2961-5
Cascini L, Scoppettuolo MR, Babilio E (2022) Forecasting the landslide evolution: from theory to practice. Landslides 19(12):2839–2851. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01934-3
Chen M, Huang D, Jiang Q (2021) Slope movement classification and new insights into failure prediction based on landslide deformation evolution. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 141:104733. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2021.104733
Crosta GB, Agliardi F (2002) How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides. Phys Chem Earth 27:1557–1565. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00177-8
Crosta GB, Di Prisco C, Frattini P, Frigerio G, Castellanza R, Agliardi F (2014) Chasing a complete understanding of the triggering mechanisms of a large rapidly evolving rockslide. Landslides 11:747–764. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0433-1
Cruden DM, Masoumzadeh S (1987) Accelerating creep of the slopes of a coal mine. Rock Mech Rock Eng 20:123–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01410043
Du Y, Ning L, Chicas SD, Xie M (2023a) A new early warning criterion for assessing landslide risk. Nat Hazards 116(1):537–549. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05687-z
Du Y, Ning L, Chicas SD, Xie M (2023b) A new method for determining the conditions of use of the inverse velocity method. Environ Earth Sci 82(6):139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-10820-7
Fan X, Xu Q, Huang R (2007) Dynamic optimal anchoring design and formation construction of a landslide. Chinese J Rock Mech Rock Eng 26(2):4139–4146
Fang K, Zhang J, Tang H, Hu X, Yuan H, Wang X, An P, Ding B (2023) A quick and low-cost smartphone photogrammetry method for obtaining 3D particle size and shape. Eng Geol 107170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2023.107170
Gariano SL, Brunetti MT, Iovine G, Melillo M, Peruccacci S, Terranova O, Vennari C, Guzzetti F (2015) Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy. Geomorphology 228:653–665. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.019
Gigli G, Fanti R, Canuti P, Casagli N (2011) Integration of advanced monitoring and numerical modeling techniques for the complete risk scenario analysis of rockslides: the case of Mt. Beni (Florence, Italy). Eng Geol 120(1–4):48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.03.017
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5:3–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1
Guzzetti F, Gariano SL, Peruccacci S, Brunetti MT, Marchesini I, Rossi M, Melillo M (2020) Geographical landslide early warning systems. Earth-Sci Rev 200:102973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102973
He K, Wang S (2006) Double-parameter threshold and its formation mechanism of the colluvial landslide: Xintan landslide, China. Environ Geol 49:696–707. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-005-0108-x
He K, Zhao M, Zhang Y, Zhang J (2017) Unload-load displacement response ratio parameter and its application in prediction of debris landslide induced by rainfall. Environ Earth Sci 76:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6372-0
Huang X, Guo F, Deng M, Yi W, Huang H (2020) Understanding the deformation mechanism and threshold reservoir level of the floating weight-reducing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Landslides 17:2879–2894. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01435-1
Hungr O, Leroueil S, Picarelli L (2014) The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update. Landslides 11:167–194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y
Intrieri E, Gigli G, Mugnai F, Fanti R, Casagli N (2012) Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system. Eng Geol 147:124–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.07.017
Intrieri E, Raspini F, Fumagalli A, Lu P, Conte S, Farina P, Allievi J, Ferretti A, Casagli N (2018) The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data. Landslides 15:123–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0915-7
Intrieri E, Carlà T, Gigli G (2019) Forecasting the time of failure of landslides at slope-scale: a literature review. Earth-Sci Rev 193:333–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.03.019
Jeng CJ, Chen SS, Tseng CH (2022) A case study on the slope displacement criterion at the critical accelerated stage triggered by rainfall and long-term creep behavior. Nat Hazards 112(3):2277–2312. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05265-3
Kang C, Zhang F, Pan F, Peng J, Wu W (2018) Characteristics and dynamic runout analyses of 1983 Saleshan landslide. Eng Geol 243:181–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.07.006
Kavoura K, Konstantopoulou M, Depountis N, Sabatakakis N (2020) Slow-moving landslides: kinematic analysis and movement evolution modeling. Environ Earth Sci 79:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-8879-7
Matti B, Tacher L, Commend S (2012) Modelling the efficiency of a drainage gallery work for a large landslide with respect to hydrogeological heterogeneity. Can Geotech J 49(8):968–985. https://doi.org/10.1139/t2012-061
Mazzanti P, Bozzano F, Cipriani I, Prestininzi A (2015) New insights into the temporal prediction of landslides by a terrestrial SAR interferometry monitoring case study. Landslide. 12:55–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0469-x
Muller L (1964) The rock slide in the Vajont Valley. Rock Mech Rock Eng 2(3):148–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(87)90081-0
Pecoraro G, Calvello M, Piciullo L (2019) Monitoring strategies for local landslide early warning systems. Landslides 16:213–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1068-z
Peres DJ, Cancelliere A (2021) Comparing methods for determining landslide early warning thresholds: potential use of non-triggering rainfall for locations with scarce landslide data availability. Landslides 18(9):3135–3147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01704-7
Qin S, Jiao J, Wang S (2001) The predictable time scale of landslides. Bull Eng Geol Environ 59(4):307–312. https://doi.org/10.1007/s100640000062
Qin S, Jiao J, Li Z (2006) Nonlinear evolutionary mechanisms of instability of plane-shear slope: catastrophe, bifurcation, chaos and physical prediction. Rock Mech Rock Eng 39(1):59–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-005-0049-4
Royán MJ, Abellán A, Vilaplana JM (2015) Progressive failure leading to the 3 December 2013 rockfall at Puigcercós scarp (Catalonia, Spain). Landslides 12:585–595. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0573-6
Saito M (1965) Forecasting the time of occurrence of a slope failure. In: Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, Montreal, Canada. pp 537–541. 1572543024011185664
Salee R, Chinkulkijniwat A, Yubonchit S, Horpibulsuk S, Wangfaoklang C, Soisompong S (2022) New threshold for landslide warning in the southern part of Thailand integrates cumulative rainfall with event rainfall depth-duration. Nat Hazards 113(1):125–141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05292-0
Scoppettuolo MR, Cascini L, Babilio E (2020) Typical displacement behaviors of slope movements. Landslides 17(5):1105–1116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01327-z
Segalini A, Valletta A, Carri A (2018) Landslide time-of-failure forecast and alert threshold assessment: a generalized criterion. Eng Geol 245:72–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.08.003
Segoni S, Piciullo L, Gariano SL (2018) A review of the recent literature on rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence. Landslides 15(8):1483–1501. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-0966-4
Song K, Wang F, Yi Q, Lu S (2018) Landslide deformation behavior influenced by water level fluctuations of the Three Gorges Reservoir (China). Eng Geol 247:58–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.10.020
Suwa H, Mizuno T, Ishii T (2010) Prediction of a landslide and analysis of slide motion with reference to the 2004 Ohto slide in Nara, Japan. Geomorphology 124(3–4):157–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.05.003
Tan F, Hu X, He C, Zhang Y, Zhang H, Zhou C, Wang Q (2018) Identifying the main control factors for different deformation stages of landslides. Geotech Geol Eng 36:469–482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-017-0340-7
Valletta A, Carri A, Segalini A (2022) Alert threshold assessment based on equivalent displacements for the identification of potentially critical landslide events. Nat Hazards 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05606-2
Vaunat J, Leroueil S, Faure R (1994) Slope movements: a geotechnical perspective. In: Proc. 7th International Congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology. Lisbon, Portugal. pp 1637-1646
Wang D, Cao L, Piao C, Xue Y, Bai R (2012) Dynamic identification method of slope impending landslide moment based on hypothetical testing theory. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 31(3):577–585
Wang L, Xie M, Chai X (2014) Research on method of displacement speed ratio for spatial evaluation of landslide deformation. Rock Soil Mech 35:519–528
Wu X, Benjamin Zhan F, Zhang K, Deng Q (2016) Application of a two-step cluster analysis and the Apriori algorithm to classify the deformation states of two typical colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges, China. Environ Earth Sci 75:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5022-2
Xu Q, Yuan Y, Zeng Y, Hack R (2011) Some new pre-warning criteria for creep slope failure. Sci China Technol Sci 54:210–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-011-4640-5
Xu Q, Peng D, Zhang S, Zhu X, He C, Qi X, Zhao K, Xiu D, Ju N (2020) Successful implementations of a real-time and intelligent early warning system for loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China. Eng Geol 278:105817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105817
Yin Y, Wang H, Gao Y, Li X (2010) Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town, the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Landslides 7:339–349. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0220-1
Yin Y, Liu X, Zhao C, Tomás R, Zhang Q, Lu Z, Li B (2022) Multi-dimensional and long-term time series monitoring and early warning of landslide hazard with improved cross-platform SAR offset tracking method. Sci China Inf Sci 65(8):1891–1912. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-021-2008-6
Zhang B, Ma S (2001) Analysis on displacement mechanism of Muping landslide. Dam Observ Geotech Tests 25(4):20–21
Zhang J, Tang H, Wen T, Ma J, Tan Q, Xia D, Liu X, Zhang Y (2020a) A hybrid landslide displacement prediction method based on CEEMD and DTW-ACO-SVR—cases studied in the three gorges reservoir area. Sensors 20(15):4287. https://doi.org/10.3390/s20154287
Zhang J, Tang H, Tannant DD, Lin C, Xia D, Wang Y, Wang Q (2021a) A novel model for landslide displacement prediction based on EDR selection and multi-swarm intelligence optimization algorithm. Sensors 21(24):8352. https://doi.org/10.3390/s21248352
Zhang J, Tang H, Tannant DD, Lin C, Xia D, Liu X, Ma J (2021b) Combined forecasting model with CEEMD-LCSS reconstruction and the ABC-SVR method for landslide displacement prediction. J Clean Prod 293:126205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126205
Zhang X, Chen L, Zhou C (2023) Deformation monitoring and trend analysis of reservoir bank landslides by combining time-series InSAR and Hurst Index. Remote Sens 15(3):619. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15030619
Zhang Y, Li W, Bao S, Haibo H, Long L (2020b) Application of an adaptive weighted estimation fusion algorithm in landslide deformation monitoring data processing. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. Vol. 570. No. 6. IOP Publishing, 2020
Zheng Y, Chen C, Liu T, Xia K, Sun C, Chen L (2020) Analysis of a retrogressive landslide with double sliding surfaces: a case study. Environ Earth Sci 79(1):1–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8741-y
Zhou C, Cao Y, Yin K, Wang Y, Shi X, Catani F, Ahmed B (2020) Landslide characterization applying sentinel-1 images and InSAR technique: the Muyubao landslide in the three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Remote Sens 12(20):3385. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203385
Zou Z, Luo T, Zhang S, Duan H, Li S, Wang J, Deng Y, Wang J (2023) A novel method to evaluate the time-dependent stability of reservoir landslides: exemplified by Outang landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Landslides. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02056-0
Zuan P, Huang Y (2018) Prediction of sliding slope displacement based on intelligent algorithm. Wirel Pers Commun 102:3141–3157. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11277-018-5333-1
Funding
Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 42090055, Huiming Tang, National Key Scientific Instrument and Equipment Development Projects of China, No. 41827808 Huiming Tang, the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, 42207212, Junrong Zhang, Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China, 2021M703002, Junrong Zhang, the Open Fund of Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards (No. BNORSG-202314).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
JZ: methodology, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing. HT: funding acquisition, supervision. CL: writing—review and editing. WG: supervision. BZ: software, visualization. YZ: visualization.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, J., Tang, H., Li, C. et al. Deformation stage division and early warning of landslides based on the statistical characteristics of landslide kinematic features. Landslides 21, 717–735 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02192-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02192-7