Abstract
Debris flow activity is strongly controlled by trigger conditions, specifically the sediment availability and water input, which are expected to change in response to future climate changes. These hydrological and geomorphological impacts are difficult to predict in climate-sensitive alpine mountain regions. This research focuses on the impacts of future environmental changes on debris flow occurrence in the Xinduqiao-Changdu section of the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor. Two distinct aspects are examined and discussed: the spatial variability of triggering conditions and the prediction of debris flow behavior under changing conditions. We used long-term (1961-2017) meteorological data to analyze the variation of debris flow water source conditions with results indicating an increasing trend in annual average temperature, especially in the northwest of corridor. However, annual precipitation shows no significant change. Another consideration is the variation in materials source conditions, reflected by historical seismic and fault density, suggesting a potential earthquake risk in the southeast corridor. Subsequently, the Flo-2D is employed to simulate two trigger types of debris flow (rainfall and ice-snow) by modifying flow volume and flow properties under warming or seismic conditions. These findings serve as a reference for hazard prevention in climate-sensitive alpine areas.
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This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 41941017) and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (Grant no. 2019QZKK0902)
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Sun, Y., Ge, Y., Chen, X. et al. Analysis of the trigger conditions and activity trend in debris flow along Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor (Xinduqiao-Changdu section) under environmental changes. Bull Eng Geol Environ 83, 189 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-024-03689-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-024-03689-8