Abstract
Debris flows pose a major threat to life and property in mountainous regions. Rainfall thresholds are an important component for providing an early warning of debris flows. Most rainfall thresholds were calculated based on historical debris flow events and rainfall monitoring data, but in the areas where the debris flow events and rainfall monitoring data are lacking, these threshold models cannot be established. Here, we present a method for estimating the daily rainfall thresholds of regional debris flows according to different underlying surface factors. First, based on 34 underlying surface factors and 652 debris flow catchments with known frequencies, a relationship model between the influencing factors and debris flow frequency was established; second, a fitting function between the frequency of days with rainfall greater than a given amount (15 mm, 20 mm, 25 mm, 30 mm, 40 mm, and 50 mm) was derived. Last, the predicted debris flow frequencies were input into the fitting function to estimate the daily rainfall thresholds of each catchment. The estimated thresholds were verified using historical debris flow events, and the verification results were R2 = 0.82, MAE = 2.81, RMSE = 3.95. The daily rainfall thresholds of regional debris flows estimated in this study can provide a reference for the early warning of regional debris flows where monitoring data are lacking.
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Data availability
The data and code used in this paper can be downloaded and used for free from the link: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21490.38081 (Zhao 2021b).
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Funding
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1501005, 2018YFC1504704); the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of Gansu Province (19ZD2FA002); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130709, 42077230, 41907224); the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province (21JR7RA442); the Construction Project of Gansu Technological Innovation Center (18JR2JA006); and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky-2021–6). The soil map for China is based on Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD, v1.1, 2009), National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, 2019.
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Yan Zhao: conceptualization, methodology, software, writing—original draft preparation; Xingmin Meng, Guan Chen: supervision, validation, resources; Tianjun Qi, Yajun Li, Feng Qing: visualization, investigation, data curation; Dongxia Yue: writing—reviewing and editing.
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Zhao, Y., Meng, X., Qi, T. et al. Estimating the daily rainfall thresholds of regional debris flows in the Bailong River Basin, China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 82, 46 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-023-03068-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-023-03068-9