Abstract
Roughly a third of Europe’s water demand is satisfied by groundwater abstraction. Understanding how future changes in climate, weather, vegetation and land use will affect the transport of atmospheric water to the subsurface is critical for successful implementation of Europe’s Water Framework Directive and to maintain groundwater as a high-quality water resource. This paper summarizes the known drivers of trends and variations in groundwater recharge (precipitation, evapotranspiration and vegetation, land use) in Central Europe and how they have changed in recent decades. From past observations and future climate projections, the foreseeable consequences for groundwater recharge under a changing climate are discussed. The paper focuses on the complex role of soils and vegetation at the interface between atmosphere and groundwater, and addresses open questions and possible new directions for research. Summarizing the evidence, land use and land-use change have a large control on recharge, but the influence of climate change is increasingly recognized. Central Europe’s current transition from a temperate and relatively moist climate towards a more variable and Mediterranean-like climate may shift recharge patterns and increase the ratio of focused-to-diffusive recharge as precipitation patterns change and the frequency and intensity of climatic extremes (e.g., heavy rainfall, heatwaves, droughts, floods and wild fires) increase. However, uncertainty remains with regard to the dynamic response of Europe’s vegetation to climate change as well as to human modifications of the water cycle (e.g., through irrigation, forest management, artificial recharge or urbanization), which currently challenges model-based predictions of future recharge.
Résumé
Environ un tiers de la demande en eau à l’échelle européenne est satisfaite par l’exploitation des eaux souterraines. Comprendre comment les changements futurs dans le climat, les conditions météorologiques, la végétation et l’occupation des sols affecteront le transport de l’eau atmosphérique vers le sous-sol est essentiel à une mise en œuvre réussie de la directive-cadre sur l’eau de l’Europe et au maintien des eaux souterraines en tant que ressource en eau de haute qualité. Cet article résume les facteurs connus des tendances et des variations de la recharge des eaux souterraines (précipitations, évapotranspiration et végétation, occupation des sols) en Europe Centrale et comment ils ont changé au cours des dernières décennies. A partir des observations passes et des projections futures du climat, les conséquences prévisibles pour la recharge des eaux souterraines dans un contexte de changement climatique sont discutées. Ce papier met l’accent sur le rôle complexe des sols et de la végétation à l’interface entre atmosphère et eaux souterraines, et adresse les questions ouvertes et les nouvelles orientations possibles pour la recherche. S’il est prouvé que l’utilisation du sol et son changement contrôlent grandement la recharge, l’influence du changement climatique est de plus en plus reconnue. La transition actuelle d’un climat tempéré et relativement humide vers un climat plus variable et méditerranéen en Europe Centrale peut modifier les modalités de la recharge et augmenter le rapport de la recharge ponctuelle versus la recharge diffuse au fur et à mesure que les régimes de précipitations changent et que la fréquence et l’intensité des extrêmes climatiques (par ex., fortes pluies, vagues de chaleur, sécheresses, inondations et feux de forêt) augmentent. Cependant, les incertitudes persistent concernant la réponse dynamique de la végétation en Europe au changement climatique ainsi qu’aux modifications anthropiques du cycle de l’eau (par ex., par l’irrigation, la gestion des forêts, la recharge artificielle ou l’urbanisation), ce qui est un véritable défi actuellement pour remet actuellement en question les prévisions basées sur des modèles de la recharge future.
Resumen
Aproximadamente un tercio de la demanda de agua de Europa se satisface con la extracción de agua subterránea. Comprender cómo los futuros cambios climáticos, meteorológicos, de la vegetación y del uso de la tierra afectarán al transporte del agua atmosférica hacia el subsuelo es fundamental para aplicar con éxito la Directiva Marco del Agua de Europa y mantener las aguas subterráneas como un recurso hídrico de alta calidad. En el presente documento se resumen los factores causantes de las tendencias y variaciones conocidas en la recarga de las aguas subterráneas (precipitación, evapotranspiración y vegetación, utilización de la tierra) en Europa central y cómo han cambiado en los últimos decenios. A partir de observaciones del pasado y proyecciones climáticas futuras, se examinan las consecuencias predecibles de la recarga de aguas subterráneas en un clima en constante cambio. El documento se centra en el complejo papel de los suelos y la vegetación en la interfaz entre la atmósfera y las aguas subterráneas, y aborda cuestiones aún pendientes y los posibles nuevos rumbos de la investigación. Resumiendo las experiencias, el uso de la tierra y el cambio de uso de la tierra tienen un importante control sobre la recarga, pero cada vez se reconoce más la influencia del cambio climático. La actual transición de Europa central de un clima templado y relativamente húmedo a un clima más variable y de tipo mediterráneo puede modificar las características de la recarga y aumentar la relación entre la recarga localizada y la recarga difusa a medida que cambien las tendencias de las precipitaciones y aumente la frecuencia e intensidad de los extremos climáticos (por ejemplo, fuertes lluvias, olas de calor, sequías, inundaciones e incendios forestales). Sin embargo, sigue existiendo incertidumbre con respecto a la respuesta dinámica de la vegetación en Europa al cambio climático, así como a las modificaciones introducidas por el hombre en el ciclo del agua (por ejemplo, mediante el riego, la gestión forestal, la recarga artificial o la urbanización), lo que actualmente pone en tela de juicio las predicciones de recarga futura basadas en el uso de modelos.
摘要
地下水开采量可满足欧洲大约三分之一的用水需求。理解气候、天气、植被和土地利用未来变化将如何影响大气水向地下的输送,对于成功实施欧洲水框架指令和维持地下水作为优质水资源至关重要。本文总结了中欧地下水补给趋势和变化(降水,蒸散和植被,土地利用)的已知驱动因素,以及近几十年来它们如何变化。基于过去观测和未来气候预测,讨论了气候变化对地下水补给的可预见影响。本文着眼于土壤与植被在大气与地下水界面上的复杂作用,并提出了开放式问题和可能的研究新方向。总结已有证据,土地利用和土地利用的变化对补给有很大的控制作用,但是气候变化的影响越来越被人们所认识。随着降水模式的变化以及极端事件(例如暴雨,热浪,干旱,洪水和野火)的频率和强度的变化,中欧当前从温带气候和相对潮湿的气候向更具变化性和地中海式气候的转变可能会改变补给方式并增加集中向分散补给的比例。但是,欧洲植被对气候变化的动态响应以及对水循环的人为影响(例如通过灌溉,森林管理,人工补给或城市化)的不确定性仍然存在,这些问题也是当前基于模型的未来补给预测的挑战。
Resumo
Aproximadamente um terço da demanda de água da Europa é satisfeita pela captação de águas subterrâneas. Compreender como as mudanças futuras no clima, clima, vegetação e uso da terra afetarão o transporte de água atmosférica para o subsolo é fundamental para a implementação bem sucedida da Diretiva Quadro da Água na Europa e para manter as águas subterrâneas como um recurso hídrico de alta qualidade. Este artigo resume os fatores conhecidos das tendências e variações na recarga de águas subterrâneas (precipitação, evapotranspiração e vegetação, uso da terra) na Europa Central e como eles mudaram nas últimas décadas. A partir de observações passadas e projeções climáticas futuras, são discutidas as consequências previsíveis para a recarga das águas subterrâneas sob uma mudança climática. O artigo enfoca o papel complexo dos solos e da vegetação na interface entre a atmosfera e as águas subterrâneas e aborda questões em aberto e possíveis novos rumos para a pesquisa. Resumindo as evidências, o uso da terra e as mudanças no uso da terra têm um grande controle sobre a recarga, mas a influência das mudanças climáticas é cada vez mais reconhecida. A atual transição da Europa Central de um clima temperado e relativamente úmido para um clima mais variável e do tipo mediterrâneo pode mudar os padrões de recarga e aumentar a proporção de recarga pontual para difusa à medida que os padrões de precipitação mudam e a frequência e intensidade de extremos climáticos (por exemplo, chuvas fortes, ondas de calor, secas, inundações e incêndios) aumentam. No entanto, permanece a incerteza em relação à resposta dinâmica da vegetação da Europa às mudanças climáticas, bem como às modificações humanas do ciclo da água (por exemplo, através de irrigação, manejo florestal, recarga artificial ou urbanização), que atualmente desafiam previsões baseadas em modelos de recarga futura.
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Acknowledgements
The manuscript benefited from insightful comments by T. aus der Beek, S. Birk and one anonymous reviewer.
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This work was funded by the Collaborative Research Center 1253 CAMPOS (Project 7: Stochastic Modelling Framework), funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG, Grant Agreement SFB 1253/1 2017).
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Riedel, T., Weber, T.K.D. Review: The influence of global change on Europe’s water cycle and groundwater recharge. Hydrogeol J 28, 1939–1959 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02165-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02165-3