Abstract
This study explores spatio-temporal patterns of surface water-groundwater interactions in the Yom and Nan River basins, a vulnerable and essential agricultural region in northern Thailand, under various future climate conditions. The SWAT-MODFLOW model performs the coupled simulation of surface/subsurface hydrological processes in the watershed, with projected climate conditions from the three Global Climate Models (MIROC5, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR) under the minimum and maximum Green House Gas emission scenarios, represented as the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5. The results demonstrate that, in the near future (2026–2045) under the two scenarios, a raised air temperature at 0.5–1.0 °C with a 2–16% increment of annual rainfall cause a 7–20% decrease in groundwater recharge from surface water percolation, followed by a 11–21% depletion of groundwater flow to river, while aquifer recharge from the river change negligibly. In the intermediate future (2051–2070) and far future (2076–2095), changes in surface water-groundwater interactions under RCP 2.6 are rather similar to the near future because of insignificant differentiation in climate conditions. Whereas, under RCP 8.5, annual rainfall increases by 26% and produces 4–14% increments of groundwater recharging and groundwater discharge to streamflow, while river seepage increases by 1–18%. These provide key insights into northern Thailand watershed systems to deal with future impacts of climate change on water supply.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to acknowledge and thank the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, for hosting Mr Petpongpan during the research project.
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This research was supported by King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi’s Post-doctoral Fellowship.
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Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Chanchai Petpongpan, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Ryan Bailey, Duangrudee Kositgittiwong and Phayom Saraphirom. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Chanchai Petpongpan and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript.
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Petpongpan, C., Ekkawatpanit, C., Bailey, R.T. et al. Evaluating Surface Water-groundwater Interactions in Consequence of Changes in Climate and Groundwater Extraction. Water Resour Manage 36, 5767–5783 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03334-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03334-7