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Detection and quantification of seasonal human heat and cold stress frequencies in representative existing and future urban canyons: the case of Ankara

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Abstract

Based upon a ‘human-centred approach’, combinations of existing and new methodologies were applied to determine how Ankara’s morphological characteristics influenced the magnitude/frequency of Cold Stress (CS) and Heat Stress (HS) to detect/quantify seasonal and yearly human thermal stress frequency. To quantify these conditions upon the human biometeorological system, the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) was utilised by processing climatic variables from Ankara’s Meteorological Station (AMS). In situ assessments of human thermophysiological thresholds were undertaken within characteristic existing/future Urban Canyon Cases (UCCs), with a further stipulation of three interior Reference Points (RPs). Indoor PET values were moreover calculated within a stereotypical vulnerable residential dwelling. Seasonal frequencies revealed that winter PET values frequently ranged between 0.0 and − 19.9 °C, with corresponding summer values frequently ranging between 35.1 and 46.0 °C. Accounting for Ankara’s urban morphology, yearly frequency of No Thermal Stress remained at ~ 48%, CS remained at ~ 26%, and HS ~ 28%. HS varied the most between the eight evaluated Aspect Ratios (ARs). It reduced by up to 7.1% (114 min) within the Centre (RPC) area of UCCs with an orientation of 90°. Out of twelve orientations, the highest HS frequency took place between 105 and 135°. Including in UCC3.50, the frequency of HS almost always remained above 72% (2592 min).

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

Not applicable.

Abbreviations

BSk’:

Cold semi-arid climate according Köppen-Geiger Classification (-)

Csa’:

Warm temperate with dry hot summer according Köppen-Geiger Classification (-)

Dsa’:

Snow/cold climate with dry/hot summer according Köppen-Geiger Classification (-)

Dsb’:

Snow/cold climate with dry/warm summer according Köppen-Geiger Classification (-)

AR:

Aspect ratio (-)

DP1 :

Diurnal period 1 (i.e. between 09:00 and 17:00) (-)

DP2 :

Diurnal period 2 (i.e. between 12:00 and 15:00) (-)

mPET:

Modified physiologically equivalent temperature (°C)

MRTI :

Indoor mean radiant temperature (°C)

MRTO :

Outdoor mean radiant temperature (°C)

Oct:

Cloud cover (1/8)

OR:

Orientation (°)

PET:

Physiologically equivalent temperature (°C)

PETI :

Indoor physiologically equivalent temperature (°C)

PETL:

Physiologically equivalent temperature load (°C)

PETO :

Outdoor physiologically equivalent temperature (°C)

RHI :

Indoor relative humidity (%)

RHO :

Outdoor relative humidity (%)

RP# :

Reference Point (-)

SVF:

Sky View Factor (0/1)

Ta:

Air temperature (°C)

TaI :

Indoor air temperature (°C)

TaO :

Outdoor air temperature (°C)

TgI :

Indoor globe temperature (°C)

U-Value:

Thermal Resistance (W/m2k)

UCC# :

Urban Canyon Case (-)

V1.1I :

Indoor air speed at 1.1 m (m/s)

V1.1O :

Outdoor wind speed at 1.1 m (m/s)

VI :

Indoor air speed (m/s)

VO :

Outdoor wind speed (m/s)

VPI :

Indoor vapour pressure (hPa)

VPO :

Outdoor vapour pressure (hPa)

H/W:

Height-width-ratio (-)

AMS:

Ankara’s Meteorological Station

ASHRAE:

American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers

CCDI:

Climate Change Detection Indices

C:

Central (Pertaining to RP)

CS#:

Cold Stress #

CTIS:

Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme

EBM:

Energy Based Model

EHEs:

Extreme Heat Events

FDD:

Frequency Distribution Diagram

GCM:

Global Circulation Model

HS#:

Heat Stress #

ICDN:

Indoor Cooling Degree Necessity

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KGC:

Köppen-Geiger Classification

KHS:

Kestrel Heat Stress

LL:

Left Lateral (Pertaining to RP)

MEMI:

Munich Energy-balance Model for Individuals

MS:

Meteorological Station

NTS:

No Thermal Stress

NTSEXP :

No Thermal Stress Expanded

RCM:

Regional Climate Model

RCP:

Representative Concentration Pathways

RL:

Right Lateral (Pertaining to RP)

SDG:

Sustainable Development Goal

PS:

Physiological Stress

TÜBİTAK:

Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye

WMO:

World Meteorological Organisation

References

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to extend their gratitude to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Onur Çalışkan from Ankara University for his initial support with the AMS climatic data acquisition.

Funding

This investigation was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) for the national research project [2236] funding, with the project grant number [120C077] – Obtained by A.N

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

A.N + A. M—conceptualisation; data curation; formal analysis; funding acquisition (A.N); investigation; methodology; project administration; resources; software; validation; visualisation; writing/review. I.C—data curation; formal analysis; resources; software; validation; review. Y.A—investigation; project administration; review. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Santos Nouri.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Highlights

• Urban cold/heat stress evaluated within diverse urban morphological in situ settings.

• Present/future urban canyons studied to define thermophysiological stress frequency.

• Physiologically Equivalent Temperature used to assess thermal stress on human body.

• New methodical approach to identify local seasonal and yearly thermal stress frequency.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 5 Specifications of Kestrel Heat Stress (KHS) 5400 station

5

Fig. 9
figure 9

Illustration of SVF overlay for the different Reference Points (RPs) between H/W0.25 and H/W1.50 for each Urban Canyon Case (UCC) amongst the twelve orientations with relationship with to solar radiation between the winter and summer Solstice patterns for Ankara

9 and

Fig. 10
figure 10

Illustration of SVF overlay for the different Reference Points (RPs) between H/W2.00 and H/W3.50 for each Urban Canyon Case (UCC) amongst the twelve orientations with relationship with to solar radiation between the winter and summer Solstice patterns for Ankara

10

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Santos Nouri, A., Charalampopoulos, I., Afacan, Y. et al. Detection and quantification of seasonal human heat and cold stress frequencies in representative existing and future urban canyons: the case of Ankara. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 593–620 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04482-5

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