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Future precipitation extremes over base Himalayan Uttarakhand region: analysis using the statistically downscaled, bias-corrected high-resolution NEX-GDDP datasets

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Abstract

The Himalayan region of Uttarakhand, India, has witnessed floods and landslides, and more extremes are likely in the future. This study examined the projected changes in precipitation extremes by using state-of-the-art, high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) statistically downscaled NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) during southwest monsoon season (June to September) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The spatial variations of mean precipitation, as well as the extremes obtained from the multi-model mean (MMM) from NEX-GDDP simulations, were compared with Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) observational data for the baseline period (1976–2005). For the future climate, the monsoon precipitation over the Uttarakhand region may increase by ~ 13% and ~ 16% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, in the near future (2021–2050) and may further increase by 23% and 36% in the far future (2070–2099). The different extreme precipitation indices analyzed show an increase with the exception of consecutive dry days (CDDs) over Uttarakhand, both in the near future and in the far future, under both scenarios. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios exhibited a noticeable increase in the highest 1-day rainfall (by 1.4 mm decade−1 and 3.3 mm decade−1) and in the highest 5-day rainfall (by 2.7 mm decade−1 and 7 mm decade−1), along with the extreme R95P precipitation days (by 11% and 22%), and consecutive wet days become more frequent during monsoon season, respectively. The study findings highlight the need for considering more extreme rains in base Himalayan climate resiliency planning.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are freely available from the website (source is given in the data methodology). The software/programs related to the study may be available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the NEX-GDDP dataset prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) APHRODITE research team for making the precipitation products available for this work. The authors thank Prof. Dev Niyogi of the University of Texas at Austin for his advice on the project activities.

Funding

This study received financial support from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC), with the Grant GBPNI/NMHS-2019-20/MG, Government of India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, Odisha, 769008, India

    Buri Vinodhkumar, Aathira Maria Jose & Krishna Kishore Osuri

  2. Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University, Bangalore, Karnataka, 562125, India

    K. Koteswara Rao

  3. Centre for the Environment, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati, Assam, 781039, India

    Rupam Bhaduri

  4. School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India

    A. P. Dimri

  5. Director, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India

    A. P. Dimri

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  1. Buri Vinodhkumar
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Contributions

Buri Vinodh Kumar: conceptualization, methodology, data preparation, analysis, visualization, writing, reviewing, and editing; Aathira Maria Jose: model simulations, data preparation, and initial draft preparation; K. Koteswara Rao: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, and review; Krishna Kishore Osuri: conceptualization, methodology, supervision, review, and editing; Rupam Bhaduri: data analysis, reviewing, and editing; A.P. Dimri: conceptualization, methodology, and review. All authors participated in finalizing the formal analysis and manuscript preparation.

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Correspondence to Krishna Kishore Osuri.

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Vinodhkumar, B., Jose, A.M., Rao, K.K. et al. Future precipitation extremes over base Himalayan Uttarakhand region: analysis using the statistically downscaled, bias-corrected high-resolution NEX-GDDP datasets. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 1239–1253 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04111-7

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