Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this study the potential impact of the anticipated increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations on different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated, focusing on the role of the mechanisms leading to these changes. Both changes in the mean aspects of the Indian summer monsoon and changes in its interannual variability are considered. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment being performed with the ECHAM4 AGCM at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The experiment consists of two 30-year simulations, one representing the present-day climate (period: 1970–1999) and one representing the future climate (period: 2060–2089). The time-slice experiment predicts an intensification of the mean rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon due to the general warming, while the future changes in the large-scale flow indicate a weakening of the monsoon circulation in the upper troposphere and only little change in the lower troposphere. The intensification of the monsoon rainfall in the Indian region is related to an intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into this region. The weakening of the monsoon flow is caused by a pronounced warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the associated alterations of the Walker circulation. A future increase of the temperature difference between the Indian Ocean and central India as well as a future reduction of the Eurasian snow cover in spring would, by themselves, lead to a strengthening of the monsoon flow in the future. These two mechanisms compensate for the weakening of the low-level monsoon flow induced by the warming of the tropical Pacific. The time-slice experiment also predicts a future increase of the interannual variability of both the rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon and of the large-scale flow. A major part of this increase is accounted for by enhanced interannual variability of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 7.
Fig. 8.
Fig. 9.
Fig. 10.
Fig. 11.
Fig. 12.
Fig. 13.
Fig. 14.
Fig. 15.
Fig. 16.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bacher A, Oberhuber JM, Roeckner E (1998) ENSO dynamics and seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific as simulated by the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model. Clim Dyn 14: 431–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Botzet M, Esch M (1995) Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Tellus 47A: 175–196

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhaskaran B, Mitchell JFB, Lavery JR, Lal M (1995) Climatic response of the Indian subcontinent to doubled CO2 concentration. Int J Climatol 15: 873–893

    Google Scholar 

  • Chandrasekar A, Kitoh A (1998) Impact of localized sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean on the Indian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Japan 76: 841–853

    Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch U, Meehl G, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 525–582

  • Dickson RR (1984) Eurasian snow cover versus Indian monsoon rainfall – an extension of the Hahn-Shukla results. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23: 171–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Royer J-F (1996) Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to an anomalous Eurasian snow cover within the Météo-France GCM. Clim Dyn 12: 449–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Royer J-F, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, Stephenson DB, Valdes PJ (2000) Impact of doubling CO2 on the Asian summer monsoon: robust versus model-dependent responses. J Meteorol Soc Japan 78: 421–439

    Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Chauvin F, Planton S, Royer J-F, Salas-Mélia D, Tyteca S (2002) Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Clim Dyn 20: 45–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dümenil L, Bauer H-S (1998) The tropical easterly jet in a hierarchy of GCMs and in reanalyses. MPI-Report 247: pp 45

    Google Scholar 

  • Dümenil Gates L, Hagemann S, Golz C (2000) Observed historical discharge data from major rivers for climate model validation. MPI-Report 307: pp 95

  • Ferranti L, Molteni F (1999) Ensemble simulations of Eurasian snow-depth anomalies and their influence on the summer Asian monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125: 2597–2610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibson JK, Kållberg P, Uppala S, Hernandez A, Nomura A, Serrano E (1997) ERA description. ECWMF Re-analysis Project Report Series 1: pp 72

  • Goswami BN, Krishnamurthy V, Annamalai H (1999) A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125: 611–633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S, Dümenil L (1997) A parametrization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale. Clim Dyn 14: 17–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S, Dümenil L (1999) Application of a global discharge model to atmospheric model simulations in the BALTEX region. Nordic Hydrol 30: 209–230

    Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S, Dümenil Gates L (2002) Validation of the hydrological cycle of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses using the MPI hydrological discharge model. J Geophys Res 106: 1503–1510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hahn DJ, Shukla J (1976) An apparent relation between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J Atmos Sci 33: 2461–2462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton JT, Callandar BA, Varney SK (eds) (1992) Climate Change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 198

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 881

  • Hu Z-Z, Latif M, Roeckner E, Bengtsson L (2000) Intensified Asian summer monsoon and its variability in a coupled model forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys Res Lett 27: 2681–2684

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Arkin P, Chang A, Ferraro R, Gruber A, Janowiak J, McNab A, Rudolf B, Schneider U (1997) The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined precipitation data set. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78: 5–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph PV, Eischeid JK, Pyle RJ (1994) Interannual variability of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon and its association with atmospheric features, El Niño, and sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 7: 81–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ju J, Slingo J (1995) The Asian summer monsoon and ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 121: 1133–1168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A, Yukimoto S, Noda A, Montoi T (1997) Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO2. J Meteorol Soc Japan 75: 1019–1031

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Ramanathan Y (1982) Sensitivity of the monsoon onset to differential heating. J Atmos Sci 39: 1290–1306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lal M, Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2000) Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability. Reg Environ Change 1:163–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2000) Impact of ENSO on the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J Clim 13: 4287–4309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martin GM (1999) The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon, and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution, in the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125:1499–1525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • May W (1999) A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution: The experimental design and the assessment of climate change as compared to a greenhouse gas experiment with ECHAM4/OPYC at low resolution. DMI Scientific Report 99-2: pp 93

  • May W (2001) The impact of horizontal resolution on the simulation of seasonal climate in the Atlantic/European area for present and future times. Clim Res 16: 203–223

    Google Scholar 

  • May W (2002) Simulated changes of the Indian summer monsoon under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions in a global time-slice experiment. Geophys Res Lett 29: 10.1029/2001GL013808

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • May W (2003) The Indian summer monsoon and its sensitivity to the means SSTs: Simulations with the ECHAM4 AGCM at T106 horizontal resolution. J Meteorol Soc Japan 81: 57–83

    Google Scholar 

  • May W, Roeckner E (2001) A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution: the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change. Clim Dyn 17: 407–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2002) Indian monsoon GCM sensitivity experiments testing Tropospheric Biannual Oscillation transition conditions. J Clim 15: 923–944

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2003) Mechanisms for projected future changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation. Clim Dyn 21: 659–675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Washington WM (1993) South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with a doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Science 260: 1101–1104

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Washington WM, Erickson III DJ, Briegleb BP, Jaumann PJ (1996) Climate change from increased CO2 and the direct and indirect effects of sulphate aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 23: 3755–3758

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nakićenović N, and co-authors (2000) Emission scenarios, a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 599

  • Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Weather Rev 111: 517–528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dümenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996a) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. MPI-Report 218: pp 90

  • Roeckner E, Oberhuber JM, Bacher A, Christoph M, Kirchner I (1996b) ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Clim Dyn 11: 737–754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Bengtsson L, Feichter J, Lelieveld J, Rodhe H (1999) Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. J Clim 12: 3004–3032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rupa Kumar K, Pant GB, Parthasarathy B, Sontakke NA (1992) Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Int J Climatol 12: 257–268

    Google Scholar 

  • Sankar-Rao M, Lau MK, Yang S (1996) On the relationship between Eurasian snow cover and the Asian summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 16: 605–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shea DJ, Sontakke NA (1995) The annual cycle of precipitation over the Indian subcontinent: daily, monthly and seasonal statistics. NCAR Technical Note 401+STR: pp 168

  • Sontakke NA, Plant GB, Singh N (1993) Construction of all India rainfall series for the period 1844–1991. J Clim 6: 1807–1811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stendel M, Roeckner E (1998) Impacts of horizontal resolution on simulated climate statistics in ECHAM4. MPI-Report 253: pp 57

    Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson DB, Chauvin F, Royer J-F (1998) Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its dependence on model horizontal resolution. J Meteorol Soc Japan 76: 237–265

    Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson DB, Douville H, Rupa Kumar K (2001) Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon. Mausam 52: 213–220

    Google Scholar 

  • Stratton RA (1999) A high resolution AMIP integration using the Hadley Centre model HadAM2b. Clim Dyn 15: 9–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timmermann A, Oberhuber J, Bacher A, Esch M, Latif M, Roeckner E (1999) Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature 398: 694–697

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Voss R, May W, Roeckner E (2002) Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle. Int J Climatol 22: 755–777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster P (1983) The large-scale structure of the tropical atmosphere. In: Hoskins B, Pierce R (eds) Large scale dynamical processes, Academic Press, San Diego, pp 235–276

  • Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Q J R Meteorol Soc 118: 877–926

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the European Commission through the PROMISE (Predictability and variability of monsoons and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate change) project under contract no. EVK2-1999-00022. I thank Reinhard Voss for adapting the hydrological discharge model to the high horizontal resolution and for applying it to the time-slice experiment.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

    W. May

Authors
  1. W. May
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to W. May.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

May, W. Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment. Climate Dynamics 22, 389–414 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0389-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0389-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation