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Rainfall thresholds for prediction of shallow landslides around Chamoli-Joshimath region, Garhwal Himalayas, India

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Abstract

Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I = 1.82 D −0.23 (I = rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D = duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are extremely grateful to Prof. S.K. Bhattacharyya, Director, CSIR-CBRI, Roorkee for reviewing and suggesting valuable modifications which has helped in improving the quality of this paper. We also thank the editors and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which helped to improve the quality of the paper. We are thankful to Border Road Organisation, Govt. of India for sharing the data for carrying out this work. We are also thankful to Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India for supporting this work under 12th five-year plan project. One of the authors, Ms. Shaifaly Sharma, acknowledges Department of Science & Technology (DST), New Delhi for funding the research project under Women Scientist Scheme (WOS-A) grant no. SR/WOS-A/MS-14/2010.

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    D. P. Kanungo & Shaifaly Sharma

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Kanungo, D.P., Sharma, S. Rainfall thresholds for prediction of shallow landslides around Chamoli-Joshimath region, Garhwal Himalayas, India. Landslides 11, 629–638 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0438-9

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