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Regional response of runoff in CMIP5 multi-model climate projections of Jiangsu Province, China

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Abstract

Surface runoff is a major water resource component and its spatial and temporal variations significantly impact on regional socio-economic development. In this study, changes to surface runoff in Jiangsu Province, China, were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for the period 2011–2040, using input data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models and three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In general, annual mean precipitation under the five models and three scenarios showed a fluctuating upward trend, while annual mean temperatures were projected to increase by up to 1.34 °C, as compared with the reference period (1970–1999). Monthly mean runoff depths were generally predicted to increase, with the most significant increases occurring in December. Increasing runoff depths were highest under the RCP8.5 emission scenario and lowest under RCP4.5. The results of this study provide an important reference for policymakers planning for the future water resources in Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, we conducted a case study with the VIC model and it showed high consistency with gauges and provides a new reference for the studies of other plain regions.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (Grant No. BK20131368), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51579065), the Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of P.R. China (Grant No. 201161) and the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (Grant No. NCET-12-0842).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, No.1 Xikang Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China

    Zhiyong Wu, Guihua Lu & Hai He

  2. School of Business, Hohai University, No.8 Focheng West Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China

    Xia Chen

  3. School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China

    Heng Xiao

  4. Jiangsu Provincial Department of Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China

    Jianhua Zhang

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  1. Zhiyong Wu
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Correspondence to Zhiyong Wu.

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Wu, Z., Chen, X., Lu, G. et al. Regional response of runoff in CMIP5 multi-model climate projections of Jiangsu Province, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 2627–2643 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1349-9

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