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Climate evolution in the Mediterranean Sea from an ocean circulation model

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Abstract

The present and future evolution of the Mediterranean Sea hydrographical conditions are investigated using a Mediterranean Sea circulation model forced by a set of atmospheric fields at the sea surface and ocean fields at the neighbouring Atlantic Ocean west of the Strait of Gibraltar. The forcing fields originate from the Med-CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMPI6 data bases and the ORAS4 reanalyses. The simulations cover the period 1950–2100. The results confirm the Mediterranean Sea future warming and saltening but with a large spread among the simulations for this variable. The different contributions to the sea level change are estimated from the simulations. The total sea level is projected to increase by around 500–800 mm in 2100. The contribution of the dynamic part does not exceed 100 mm while that equilibrating the steric part in the Atlantic area is around 250–400 mm; the remaining part due to other contributions being of the order of 250–300 mm. The component which does not equilibrate the steric sea level in the Atlantic area is evaluated between −200 and + 200 mm. At the sea surface the simulations reproduce the northward extension of the Atlantic waters to the north of the Balearic Islands. The thermohaline circulation examined through an east–west vertical section is characterized by enhanced penetration of Atlantic waters at the upper layers and by a tongue of increased salinity in the Levantine Intermediate water deepening from east to west. While the overall density of the Mediterranean Sea is projected to decrease, the density difference between the inflowing and outflowing waters is projected to increase, mainly due to an increase in the temperature and a decrease in the salinity of the Atlantic waters, hence explaining the mass and heat enhanced exchange. It also gives an explanation to the projected increase of the basin sea level drop relative to that in the Atlantic Ocean reproduced in some of the results of the present work.

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Data availability

A link for the ORA4 data: https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/icdc/data/ocean/easy-init-ocean/ecmwf-ocean-reanalysis-system-4-oras4.html. The Med-CORDEX data base is available in: https://www.medcordex.eu. A link to CMIP5 data: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/. A link to CMIP6 data: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6. The datasets generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

This work is part of the Med-CORDEX Phase 1 initiative supported by the HyMeX programme. It was partly funded by the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Tunisia, PrevTun project, LR16INSTM04-01. The forcing fields to the Mediterranean Sea model originate from the ORAS4 reanalyses and Med-CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 data bases. The authors are very grateful to reanalyses and simulation authors and to model output data providers.

Funding

This work was partly funded by the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Tunisia, PrevTun project, LR16INSTM04-01.

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  1. Marine Environment Laboratory, University of Carthage, National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies (INSTM), LR16INSTM04, 2025, Salammbo, Tunisia

    Rihem Jabnoun & Ali Harzallah

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AH is the main contributor to the study conception. Both authors contributed to the study design. Data collection and analysis and numerical simulations were performed by both authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by AH. Both authors commented and added modifications on previous versions of the manuscript. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ali Harzallah.

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Table 5 List of numerical models that were used to provide the forcing data of the simulations carried out in this study
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Jabnoun, R., Harzallah, A. Climate evolution in the Mediterranean Sea from an ocean circulation model. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07152-y

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