Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model has been used to estimate sea level rise in the Mediterranean basin under present and future conditions. A present climate simulation has been forced by ERA40 reanalysis covering the period 1958–2001. Moreover a simulation has been forced by the global coupled model ECHAM5-MPIOM under present climate conditions for the period 1951–2000. Two other 50-year simulations have been performed under the SRESA1B scenario for the twenty-first century and differ only in temperature and salinity profiles used to relax the ocean model in the Atlantic buffer zone. The present climate simulation has been verified in terms of temperature, salinity and sea level against observed data, showing good performances both in mean values and variability over the whole Mediterranean Sea and over different sub-basins. The future scenario simulations show that the steric sea level averaged over the entire basin rises of about 2 or 7 cm in 50 years depending on the Atlantic boundary conditions. The difference of about 1 °C and 0.5 psu in the upper layers of the Atlantic sea reflects mainly on the halosteric component that contributes negatively to the sea level rise, when fresher and colder boundary conditions are used in the Atlantic buffer zone, and positively in the other case. The impact of the boundary conditions is not uniform in the basin and is particularly strong in some easternmost regions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adcroft A, Hill C, Marshall AJ (1997) Representation of topography by shaved cells in a height coordinate ocean model. Mon Weather Rev 125(9):2293–2315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Artale V, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’Aquila A, Hermann M, Pisacane G, Ruti PM, Sannino G, Struglia MV, Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal JS, Rauscher S (2010) An atmosphere ocean regional climate model for the mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim Dyn 35:721–740. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0691-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bethoux JP (1979) Budgets of the Mediterranean Sea. Their dependence on the local climate and on the characteristics of the Atlantic waters. Oceanol Acta 2(2):157–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryden HL, Candela J, Kinder TH (1994) Exchange through the strait of Gibraltar. Prog Oceanogr 33:201–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bunker AF, Charnock H, Goldsmith RA (1982) A note on the heat balance of the Mediterranean and Red Seas. J Mar Syst 40(supplement):73–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Calafat FM, Gomis D (2009) Reconstruction of Mediterranean Sea level fields for the period 1945–2000. Glob Planet Change 66:225–234. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.12.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cazenave A, Nerem RS (2004) Presesent day sea level change: observations and causes. Rev Geophys 42(3):3001. doi:10.1029/2003RG00139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cazenave A, Cabanes C, Dominh K, Mangiarotti S (2001) Recent sea level change in the Mediterranean Sea revealed by Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry. Geophys Res Lett 28(8):1607–1610. doi:10.1029/2000GL012628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, White NJ (2006) A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett 33(L01602). doi:10.1029/2005GL024826

  • Criado-Aldeanueva F, Del Rio Vera J, Garcia-Lafuente J (2008) Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean Sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data. Glob Planet Chang 60:563–575. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.07.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Criado-Aldeanueva F, Soto-Navarro FJ, Garcia-Lafuente J (2010) Seasonal and interannual variability of surface heat and freshwater fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea: budgets and exchange through the strait of gibraltar. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.2268. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2268

  • Dell’Aquila A, Calmanti S, Ruti PM, Struglia MV, Pisacane G, Carillo A, Sannino G (2012) Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Clim Res 52:135–157. doi:10.3354/cr01037

    Google Scholar 

  • Domingues CM, Church JA, White NJ, Gleckler PJ, Wijffels SE, Barker PM, Dunn JR (2008) Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453:1090–1093. doi:10.1038/nature07080

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas BC (2001) Sea level change in the era of recording tide gauges. In: Douglas BS, Kearney MS, Leatherman SP (eds) Sea level rise: history and consequences. Academic Press, New York, pp 37–64

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • García-Lafuente JM, Vargas J, Delgado J, Criado F (2002) Subinertial and seasonal variability in the strait of gibraltar from canigo observations. In: The 2nd meeting on the physical oceanography of sea straits, pp 99–102

  • Garrett C (1996) The role of the strait of Gibraltar in the evolution of Mediterranean water, properties and circulation. Bull Inst Oceanogr Monaco 17:1–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilman C, Garrett C (1994) Heat flux parameterizations for the Mediterranean Sea: the role of atmospheric aerosols and constraints from the water budget. J Geophys Res 99(C3):5119–5134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gomis D, Ruiz S, Sotillo MG, Álvarez-Fanjul E, Terradas J (2008) Low frequency sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea: the contribution of atmospheric pressure and wind. Glob Planet Chang 63(2–3):215–229. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.06.005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leuliette EW, Miller L (2009) Closing the sea level rise budget with altimetry, Argo, and GRACE. Geophys Res Lett 36(L04608). doi:10.1029/2008GL036010

  • Leuliette EW, Nerem RS, Mitchum GT (2004) Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter data to construct a continuous record of mean sea level change. Mar Geodesy 27(1–2):79–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levitus S (1982) Climatological atlas of the world ocean, NOAA professional paper 13. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Ludwig W, Dumont E, Meybeck M, Heussner S (2009) River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black sea: major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades. Prog Oceanogr 80(3–4):199–217. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2009.02.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marcos M, Tsimplis MN (2008) Comparing of results of AOGCMs in the Mediterranean Sea during the 21st century. J Geophys Res 113(C12028):1–21. doi:10.1029/2008JC004820

    Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A. Struglia, VM, Zeng N, Lau K-M (2002) The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region and implications for the water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. J Clim 15:1674–1690

    Google Scholar 

  • Marshall J, Adcroft A, Hill C, Perelman L, Heisey C (1997a) A finite-volume, incompressible Navier Stokes model for, studies of the ocean on parallel computers. J Geophys Res 102(C3):5753–5766

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall J, Hill C, Perelman L, Adcroft A (1997b) Hydrostatic, quasi-hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic ocean modeling. J Geophys Res 102(C3):5733–5752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marsland GA, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Latif M, Rske F (2003) The Max Planck Institute global/sea-ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Model 5:91–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marullo S, Buongiorno Nardelli B, Guarracino M, Santoleri R (2006) Observing the Mediterranean Sea from space: 21 years of pathfinder-AVHRR sea surface temperatures (1985 to 2005). re-analysis and validation. Ocean Sci Discuss 3(4):1191–1223. doi:10.5194/osd-3-1191-2006. http://www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/3/1191/2006/

  • MEDAR Group (2002) Medatlas/2002 database. Mediterranean and black sea database of temperature salinity and bio-chemical parameters. climatological atlas. IFREMER Edition

  • Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solmon F, Gao X, Rauscher SA, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter J, Ashfaq M, Syed FS, Bell JL, Diffenbaugh NS, Karmacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, da Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner AL (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1395–1409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rixen M, Beckers JM, Maillard C, and the MEDAR Group (2004) A hydrographic and biochemical climatology of the Mediterranean and the Black seas: some statistical pitfalls. In: Brown M et al (eds) Proceeding of the colour of ocean data: international symposium on oceanographic data and information management, with special attention to biological data, 25–27 Nov 2002, Brussels, Belgium—workshop report 188, UNESCO, Paris

  • Rixen M, Beckers JM, Levitus S, Antonov J, Boyer T, Maillard C, Fichaud M, Balopoulos E, Iona S, Dooley H, Garcia MJ, Manca B, Giorgetti A, Manzella N, Mikhailov G, Pinardi N, Zavatarelli M (2005) The Western Mediterranean deep water: a proxy for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 32(L12608):1–4. doi:10.1029/2005GL022702

    Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner (2007) ENSEMBLES ECHAM5-MPI-OM 20C3M run3, daily values. World Data Center for climate. CERA-DB ENSEMBLES_MPEH5_20C3M_3_D. http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=ENSEMBLES_MPEH5_20C3M_3_D

  • Roeckner (2008) ENSEMBLES ECHAM5-MPI-OM SRESA1B run3, daily values. World Data Center for climate. CERA-DB ENSEMBLES_MPEH5_SRA1B_3_D. http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=ENSEMBLES_MPEH5_SRA1B_3_D

  • Roeckner E, Bauml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: model description, technical report 349. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

  • Sanchez-Roman A, Sannino G, Carillo A, Garcia Lafuente J, Criado-Aldeanueva F (2009) Transport estimates at the western section of the Strait of Gibraltar: a combined experimental and numerical study. J Geophys Res 114(C06002):1–15. doi:10.1029/2008JC005023

    Google Scholar 

  • Sannino G, Bargagli A, Artale V (2004) Numerical modeling of the semidiurnal tidal exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar. J Geophys Res 109:C05011. doi:10.1029/2003JC002057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sannino G, Herrmann M, Carillo A, Rupolo V, Ruggiero V, Artale V, Heimbach P (2009) An eddy-permitting model of the Mediterranean Sea with a two-way grid refinement at the strait of gibraltar. Ocean Model 30(1):56–72. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.06.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Averyt, KB, Tignor, M, Miller, HL (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Stanev EV, Le Traon PY, Peneva EL (2000) Sea level variations and their dependency on meteorological and hydrological forcing: analysis of altimeter and surface data for the black sea. J Geophys Res 105(C7):17203–17216. doi:10.1029/1999JC900318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stouffer RJ, Yin J, Gregory JM, Dixon KW, Spelman MJ, Hurlin W, Weaver AJ, Eby M, Flato GM, Hasumi H, Hu A, Jungclaus JH, Kamenkovich IV, Levermann A, Montoya M, Murakami S, Nawrath S, Oka A, Peltier WR, Robitaille DY, Sokolov A, Vettoretti G, Weber SL (2006) Investigating the causes of the response of the thermo-haline circulation to past and future climate changes. J Clim 19(8):1365–1387. doi:10.1175/JCLI3689.1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3689.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsimplis MN, Baker TF (2000) Sea level drop in the Mediterranean Sea: an indicator of deep water salinity and temperature changes? Geophys Res Lett. 27(12):1731–1734. doi:10.1029/1999GL007004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsimplis MN, Marcos M, Somot S (2008) 21st Century Mediterranean Sea level rise: steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model. Glob Planet Chang 63(2–3):105–111. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsimplis M, Marcos M, Colin J, Somot S, Pascual A, Shaw AGP (2009) Sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea during the 1990s on the basis to two 2D and one 3D model. J Mar Syst 78(1):109–123. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.04.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valcke S, Redler R (2006) OASIS3 user guide. Prism support initiative. Report no. 4, 60 pp

  • Vargas-Yáñez M, Zunino P, Benali A, Delpy M, Pastre F, Moya F, Del Carmen García-Martínez M, Tel E (2010) How much is the western Mediterranean really warming and salting? J Geophys Res C Oceans 115(C04001). doi:10.1029/2009JC005816

  • Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE (1998) Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. J Clim 11:2628–2644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zunino P, Vargas-Yáñez M, Moya F, García-Martínez MC, Plaza F (2009) Deep and intermediate layer warming in the western Mediterranean: water mass changes and heaving. Geophys Res Lett 36. doi:10.1029/2009GL039578

Download references

Acknowledgments

Model data have been performed inside the CIRCE Integrated Project, funded under the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme. The altimeter products were produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso, with support from Cnes (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/duacs/).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. ENEA Climate Modeling and Impacts, Via Anguillarese, 301, 00123, Rome, Italy

    A. Carillo, G. Sannino, V. Artale, P. M. Ruti, S. Calmanti & A. Dell’Aquila

Authors
  1. A. Carillo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. G. Sannino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. V. Artale
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. P. M. Ruti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. S. Calmanti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. A. Dell’Aquila
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Carillo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Carillo, A., Sannino, G., Artale, V. et al. Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations. Clim Dyn 39, 2167–2184 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1369-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1369-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation