Abstract
The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.
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09 March 2021
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05695-y
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Acknowledgements
Im E.-S., Nguyen-Xuan T., and Qiu L. were supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council funded project (ECS26309618). Ashfaq M. was supported by the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (3NOA31MA) and the National Climate-Computing Research Center at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Torma Cs. was supported by the János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
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Im, ES., Thanh, NX., Qiu, L. et al. Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations. Clim Dyn 57, 1629–1644 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w