Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study conducted an updated time of emergence (ToE) analysis of regional precipitation changes over land regions across the globe using multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). ToEs were estimated for 14 selected hotspots over two seasons of April to September (AS) and October to March (OM) from three RCP scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and high (RCP8.5) emissions. Results from the RCP8.5 scenario indicate that ToEs would occur before 2040 over seven hotspots including three northern high-latitude regions (OM wettening), East Africa (OM wettening), South Asia (AS wettening), East Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying). The Mediterranean (both OM and AS drying) is expected to experience ToEs in the mid-twenty-first century (2040-2080). In order to measure possible benefits from taking low-emission scenarios, ToE differences were examined between the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Significant ToE delays from 26 years to longer than 67 years were identified over East Africa (OM wettening), the Mediterranean (both AS and OM drying), South Asia (AS wettening), and South Africa (AS drying). Further, we investigated ToE differences between CMIP3-based and CMIP5-based models using the same number of models for the comparable scenario pairs (SRESA2 vs. RCP8.5, and SRESB1 vs. RCP4.5). Results were largely consistent between two model groups, indicating the robustness of ToE results. Considerable differences in ToEs (larger than 20 years) between two model groups appeared over East Asia and South Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying), which were found due to stronger signals in CMIP5 models. Our results provide useful information on the timing of emerging signals in regional and seasonal hydrological changes, having important implications for associated adaptation and mitigation plans.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bador M, Terray L, Boé J (2016) Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe. Geophys Res Lett 43:404–412

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff NL et al (2013) Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 869–928

  • Christensen JH et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Climate change the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 849–926

  • Ciavarella A, Stott P, Lowe J (2017) Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes. Nat Clim Change 7:326–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaset J et al (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M (2011) Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Clim Change 107:615–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diffenbaugh NS, Ashfaq M, Scherer M (2011) Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale ensemble experiment over the continental United States. J Geophys Res 116:D24111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flato G et al (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 743–824

  • Fraser EDG, Simelton E, Termansen M, Gosling SN, South A (2013) “Vulnerability hotspots”: integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought. Agric For Meteorol 170:195–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2010) Uncertainties in climate change projections, from the global to the regional scale. EPJ Web Conf 9:115–129. https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/201009009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Bi X (2009) Time of emergence (TOE) of GHG-forced precipitation change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 36:L06709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Coppola E (2010) Does the model regional bias affect the projected regional climate change? An analysis of global model projections. Clim Change 100:787–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim Dyn 37:407–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins E, Sutton R (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys Res Lett 39:L01702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins E, Anderson B, Diffenbaugh N, Mahlstein I, Betts R, Hegerl G, Joshi M, Knutti R, McNeall D, Solomon S, Sutton R (2014) Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. Nature 511:E3–E5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herold N, Alexander LV, Donat MG, Contractor S, Becker A (2016) How much does it rain over land? Geophys Res Lett 43:341–348. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitson B et al (2014) Regional context. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 1133–1197

  • Kay JE et al (2015) The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:1333–1349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King AD, Donat MG, Fischer EM, Hawkins E, Alexander LV, Karoly DJ, Dittus AJ, Lewis SC, Perkins SE (2015) The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes. Environ Res Lett 10:094015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King AD, Black MT, Min S-K, Fischer EM, Mitchell DM, Harrington LJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE (2016) Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophys Res Lett 43:3438–3443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirtman B et al (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 955–1008

  • Kjellström E, Bärring L, Nikulin G, Nilsson C, Persson G, Strandberg G (2016) Production and use of regional climate model projections—a Swedish perspective on building climate services. Clim Ser 2–3:15–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuhlbrodt T, Gregory JM (2012) Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18608

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lambert SJ, Boer GJ (2001) CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 17:83–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee JY, Wang B (2014) Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Clim Dyn 42:101–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee D et al (2016) Time of emergence of anthropogenic warming signals in the Northeast Asia assessed from multi-regional climate models. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 52:129–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehner F, Deser C, Sanderson BM (2016) Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin L, Gettelman A, Fu Q, Xu Y (2016) Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1615-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Livia T, Timothy A (2014) The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes. Environ Res Lett 9:064024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maraun D (2013) When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge? Environ Res Lett 8:014004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Pan Y, Zeng N, Alessandri A (2015) Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the mist of decadal variability. Clim Dyn 44:1437–1456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min S-K, Park E-H, Kwon W-T (2004) Future projections of East Asian climate change from multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES scenario simulations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 82:1187–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min S-K, Zhang X, Zwiers F (2008) Human-induced Arctic moistening. Science 320:518–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mora C et al (2013) The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502:183–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullan D, Swindles G, Patterson T, Galloway J, Macumber A, Falck H, Crossley L, Chen J, Pisaric M (2016) Climate change and the long-term viability of the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1830-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muthers S et al (2014) The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM. Geosci Model Dev 7:2157–2179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • New M, Hulme M, Jones PD et al (2000) Representing twentieth century space–time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–1996 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13:2217–2238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noake K, Polson D, Hegerl G, Zhang X (2012) Changes in seasonal land precipitation during the latter twentieth-century. Geophys Res Lett 39:L03706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2007) Updated world map of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1633–1644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips TJ, Gleckler PJ (2006) Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th century climate simulations: the utility of multimodel statistics. Water Resour Res 42:W03202. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piontek F et al (2014) Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:3233–3238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Räisänen J (2001) CO2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments: quantification of agreement and role of internal variability. J Clim 14:2088–2104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R (2012) Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat Clim Change 2:248–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarojini BB, Stott PA, Black E (2016) Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation. Nat Clim Change 6:669–675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schleussner CF et al (2016) Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth Syst Dyn 7:327–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sedláček J, Knutti R (2014) Half of the world’s population experience robust changes in the water cycle for a 2 °C warmer world. Environ Res Lett 9:044008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocker TF et al (2013) Technical summary. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 35–109

  • Sui Y, Lang X, Jiang D (2014) Time of emergence of climate signals over China under the RCP4.5 scenario. Clim Change 125:265–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Vuuren DP et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wan H, Zhang X, Zwiers F, Min S-K (2015) Attributing northern high-latitude precipitation change over the period 1966–2005 to human influence. Clim Dyn 45:1713–1726

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (no. 2017R1A2B2008951). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Tables 1 and 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Thuy-Huong Nguyen

    Present address: REMOSAT Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Hanoi, Vietnam

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, 77 Cheongam-ro Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37673, Korea

    Thuy-Huong Nguyen, Seung-Ki Min, Seungmok Paik & Donghyun Lee

Authors
  1. Thuy-Huong Nguyen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Seung-Ki Min
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Seungmok Paik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Donghyun Lee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Seung-Ki Min.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Nguyen, TH., Min, SK., Paik, S. et al. Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Clim Dyn 51, 3179–3193 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4073-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4073-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation