Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Pacific Meridional Mode, a coupled ocean–atmospheric interaction responsible for propagating subtropical anomalies to the tropics via thermodynamic mechanisms, features prominently in discussions of the response of climate variability to climate change. However, it is presently unclear how and why the variance in PMM might change, or even if greenhouse gas forcing might lead to heightened activity. Here, PMM variance over the last millennium is assessed in the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME). The model reproduces the main spatial characteristics of the PMM in the modern ocean in agreement with observations. With this basis, we assess the magnitude of the PMM variance over the past millennium, subject to forcing from a variety of sources. Internal (unforced) variability dominates the PMM variance in the LME, but prolonged periods of strong or weak PMM variance are found to be associated with characteristic spatial patterns, consistent across ensemble members and forcing experiments. The pattern of strong PMM variance features a cooler north Pacific, weaker Walker circulation, and a southward-shifted ITCZ. Comparison with a slab ocean model suggests that equatorial ocean dynamics are necessary to sustain the statistically significant multidecadal variability. With respect to the last millennium, present greenhouse forcing does not promote exceptional PMM variance. However, the PMM variability projected in the RCP8.5 scenario exceeds the thresholds expressed with the forcings applied over the Last Millennium. Aside from multidecadal variability, the model simulations also bear on ENSO variability and the sensitivity of climate variability to external forcing.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amaya DJ, DeFlorio MJ, Miller AJ, Xie SP (2017) WES feedback and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: observations and CMIP5 comparisons. Clim Dyn 49(5–6):1665–1679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson BT (2003) Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and preceding sea level pressure anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. J Geophys Res 108:4732. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003805

  • Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Latif M, Dommenget D, Saravanan R (1999) Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin. Geophys Res Lett 26(5):615–618

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baxter S, Nigam S (2015) Key role of the North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific pattern in generating the extreme 2013/14 North American winter. J Clim 28(20):8109–8117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borlace S, Cai W, Santoso A (2013) Multidecadal ENSO amplitude variability in a 1000-yr simulation of a coupled global climate model: implications for observed ENSO variability. J Clim 26(23):9399–9407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Bladé I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Clim 12(7):1990–2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Capotondi A, Wittenberg A, Masina S (2006) Spatial and temporal structure of tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations. Ocean Model 15(3–4):274–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air–sea interactions. Nature 385(6616):516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang P, Zhang L, Saravanan R, Vimont DJ, Chiang JC, Ji L, Seidel H, Tippett MK (2007) Pacific meridional mode and El Niño–Southern oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030302

  • Change IC (2007) The fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiang JC, Fang Y (2010) Was the North Pacific wintertime climate less stormy during the mid-Holocene? J Clim 23(14):4025–4037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang JC, Vimont DJ (2004) Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere–ocean variability. J Clim 17(21):4143–4158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang JCH, Fang Y, Chang P (2009) Pacific climate change and ENSO activity in the mid-Holocene. J Clim 22(4):923–939

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choi J, An SI, Yeh SW (2012) Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and its relationship with the mean state. Clim Dyn 38(11–12):2631–2644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Tokinaga H, Okumura YM, Kubota H, Johnson N, Zheng XT (2012) Interdecadal variations in ENSO teleconnection to the Indo–western Pacific for 1870–2007. J Clim 25(5):1722–1744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chung PH, Li T (2013) Interdecadal relationship between the mean state and El Niño types. J Clim 26(2):361–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cobb KM, Charles CD, Cheng H, Edwards RL (2003) El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature 424(6946): 271

  • Czaja A, Van der Vaart P, Marshall J (2002) A diagnostic study of the role of remote forcing in tropical Atlantic variability. J Clim 15(22):3280–3290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Denniston RF, Ummenhofer CC, Wanamaker AD, Lachniet MS, Villarini G, Asmerom Y, Polyak VJ, Passaro KJ, Cugley J, Woods D, Humphreys WF (2016) Expansion and contraction of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last three millennia. Sci Rep 6:34485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips AS, Tomas RA, Okumura YM, Alexander MA, Capotondi A, Scott JD, Kwon YO, Ohba M (2012a) ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model version 4. J Clim 25(8):2622–2651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012b) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38(3–4):527–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dewitte B, Yeh SW, Moon BK, Cibot C, Terray L (2007) Rectification of ENSO variability by interdecadal changes in the equatorial background mean state in a CGCM simulation. J Clim 20(10):2002–2021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Di Lorenzo E, Mantua N (2016) Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave. Nat Clim Change 6:1042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Di Lorenzo E, Cobb KM, Furtado JC, Schneider N, Anderson BT, Bracco A, Alexander MA, Vimont DJ (2010) Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean. Nat Geosci 3(11):762–765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Di Lorenzo E, Liguori G, Schneider N, Furtado JC, Anderson BT, Alexander MA (2015) ENSO and meridional modes: a null hypothesis for Pacific climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 42(21):9440–9448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Furtado JC, Di Lorenzo E, Anderson BT, Schneider N (2012) Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies. Clim Dyn 39(12):2833–2846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghil M, Allen MR, Dettinger MD, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann ME, Robertson AW, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40(1):3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griffin D, Anchukaitis KJ (2014) How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? Geophys Res Lett 41(24):9017–9023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guillet S, Corona C, Stoffel M, Khodri M, Lavigne F, Ortega P, Eckert N, Sielenou PD, Daux V, Churakova OV, Davi N (2017) Climate response to the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records. Nat Geosci 10(2):123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halfar J, Williams B, Hetzinger S, Steneck RS, Lebednik P, Winsborough C, Omar A, Chan P, Wanamaker AD Jr (2011) 225 years of Bering Sea climate and ecosystem dynamics revealed by coralline algal growth-increment widths. Geology 39(6):579–582

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ham YG, Kug JS (2012) How well do current climate models simulate two types of El Nino? Clim Dyn 39(1–2):383–398

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann DL (2015) Pacific sea surface temperature and the winter of 2014. Geophys Res Lett 42(6):1894–1902

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hetzinger S, Halfar J, Mecking JV, Keenlyside NS, Kronz A, Steneck RS, Adey WH, Lebednik PA (2012) Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate. Clim Dyn 39(6):1447–1455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imada Y, Kimoto M (2009) ENSO amplitude modulation related to Pacific decadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 36:L03706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036421

  • Joh Y, Di Lorenzo E (2017) Increasing coupling between NPGO and PDO leads to prolonged marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 44(22)

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kay JE, Deser C, Phillips A, Mai A, Hannay C, Strand G, Arblaster JM, Bates SC, Danabasoglu G, Edwards J, Holland M (2015) The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96(8):1333–1349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim ST, Yu JY (2012) The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 39:L11704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052006

  • Kirtman BP, Schopf PS (1998) Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J Clim 11(11):2804–2822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kleeman R, McCreary JP, Klinger BA (1999) A mechanism for generating ENSO decadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 26(12):1743–1746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kug JS, Choi J, An SI, Jin FF, Wittenberg AT (2010) Warm pool and cold tongue El Niño events as simulated by the GFDL 2.1 coupled GCM. J Clim 23(5):1226–1239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larson S, Kirtman B (2013) The Pacific Meridional Mode as a trigger for ENSO in a high-resolution coupled model. Geophys Res Lett 40(12):3189–3194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavigne F, Degeai JP, Komorowski JC, Guillet S, Robert V, Lahitte P, Oppenheimer C, Stoffel M, Vidal CM, Pratomo I, Wassmer P (2013) Source of the great AD 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(42):16742–16747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lechleitner FA, Breitenbach SF, Rehfeld K, Ridley HE, Asmerom Y, Prufer KM, Marwan N, Goswami B, Kennett DJ, Aquino VV, Polyak V (2017) Tropical rainfall over the last two millennia: evidence for a low-latitude hydrologic seesaw. Sci Rep 7:45809

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Xie SP, Cook ER, Morales MS, Christie DA, Johnson NC, Chen F, D’Arrigo R, Fowler AM, Gou X, Fang K (2013) El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries. Nat Clim Change 3(9):822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang J, Yang XQ, Sun DZ (2012) The effect of ENSO events on the tropical Pacific mean climate: Insights from an analytical model. J Clim 25(21):7590–7606

  • Liguori G, Di Lorenzo E (2018) Meridional modes and increasing Pacific decadal variability under anthropogenic forcing. Geophys Res Lett 45:983–991

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin CY, Yu JY, Hsu HH (2015) CMIP5 model simulations of the Pacific meridional mode and its connection to the two types of ENSO. Int J Climatol 35(9):2352–2358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linkin ME, Nigam S (2008) The North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific teleconnection pattern: mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J Clim 21(9):1979–1997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loisel J, MacDonald GM, Thomson MJ (2017) Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest. PLoS One 12(10):e0186282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacDonald GM, Case RA (2005) Variations in the Pacific Decadal oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32:L08703. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022478

  • Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392(6678):779

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Zhang Z, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Shindell D, Ammann C, Faluvegi G, Ni F (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326(5957):1256–1260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez-Villalobos C, Vimont DJ (2016) The role of the mean state in Meridional mode structure and growth. J Clim 29(10):3907–3921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McPhaden MJ, Lee T, McClurg D (2011) El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 38:L15709. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048275

  • Meehl GA, Gent PR, Arblaster JM, Otto-Bliesner BL, Brady EC, Craig A (2001) Factors that affect the amplitude of El Niño in global coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 17(7):515–526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura H (1992) Midwinter suppression of baroclinic wave activity in the Pacific. J Atmos Sci 49(17):1629–1642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura H, Izumi T, Sampe T (2002) Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon. J Climate 15:1855–1874

  • Ogata T, Xie SP, Wittenberg A, Sun DZ (2013) Interdecadal amplitude modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its impact on tropical Pacific decadal variability. J Clim 26(18):7280–7297

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Okumura YM, Sun T, Wu X (2017) Asymmetric modulation of El Niño and La Niña and the linkage to tropical Pacific decadal variability. J Clim 30(12):4705–4733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Otto-Bliesner BL, Brady EC, Fasullo J, Jahn A, Landrum L, Stevenson S, Rosenbloom N, Mai A, Strand G (2016) Climate variability and change since 850 CE: an ensemble approach with the community earth system model. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97(5):735–754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Percival DB, Walden AT (1993) Spectral analysis for physical applications, vol 583. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Rodgers KB, Friederichs P, Latif M (2004) Tropical Pacific decadal variability and its relation to decadal modulations of ENSO. J Clim 17(19):3761–3774

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers JC (1981) The north Pacific oscillation. Int J Climatol 1(1):39–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rustic GT, Koutavas A, Marchitto TM, Linsley BK (2015) Dynamical excitation of the tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO variability by Little Ice Age cooling. Science 350:1537–1541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sachs JP, Sachse D, Smittenberg RH, Zhang Z, Battisti DS, Golubic S (2009) Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400–1850. Nat Geosci 2(7):519–525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadekov AY, Ganeshram R, Pichevin L, Berdin R, McClymont E, Elderfield H, Tudhope AW (2013) Palaeoclimate reconstructions reveal a strong link between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific mean state. Nat Commun 4:2692

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanchez SC, Charles CD, Carriquiry JD, Villaescusa JA (2016) Two centuries of coherent decadal climate variability across the Pacific North American region. Geophys Res Lett 43(17):9208–9216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21(10):2283–2296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun D-Z, Zhang T (2006) A regulatory effect of ENSO on the time-mean thermal stratification of the equatorial upper ocean. Geophys Res Lett 33:L07710. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025296

  • Thomson DJ (1982) Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis. Proc IEEE 70:1055–1096

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vega-Westhoff B, Sriver RL (2017) Analysis of ENSO’s response to unforced variability and anthropogenic forcing using CESM. Sci Rep 7(1):18047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ (2005) The contribution of the interannual ENSO cycle to the spatial pattern of decadal ENSO-like variability. J Clim 18(12):2080–2092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (2003) The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: implications for ENSO. J Clim 16(16):2668–2675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ, Alexander M, Fontaine A (2009) Midlatitude excitation of tropical variability in the Pacific: the role of thermodynamic coupling and seasonality. J Clim 22(3):518–534

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ, Alexander MA, Newman M (2014) Optimal growth of central and east Pacific ENSO events. Geophys Res Lett 41(11):4027–4034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker GT, Bliss EW (1932) World weather. V Mem R Meteorol Soc 4:53–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang SY, L’Heureux M, Chia HH (2012) ENSO prediction one year in advance using western North Pacific sea surface temperatures. Geophys Res Lett 39:L05702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050909

  • Wang SY, Hipps L, Gillies RR, Yoon JH (2014) Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint. Geophys Res Lett 41(9):3220–3226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wittenberg AT (2009) Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res Lett 36:L12702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038710

  • Xiang B, Wang B, Li T (2013) A new paradigm for the predominance of standing central Pacific warming after the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 41(2):327–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Philander SGH (1994) A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific. Tellus A 46(4):340–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu JY, Kim ST (2011) Relationships between extratropical sea level pressure variations and the central Pacific and eastern Pacific types of ENSO. J Clim 24(3):708–720

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu JY, Kao HY, Lee T (2010) Subtropics-related interannual sea surface temperature variability in the central equatorial Pacific. J Clim 23(11):2869–2884

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Chang P, Ji L (2009) Linking the Pacific meridional mode to ENSO: coupled model analysis. J Clim 22(12):3488–3505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang H, Clement A, Di Nezio P (2014a) The South Pacific meridional mode: a mechanism for ENSO-like variability. J Clim 27(2):769–783

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang H, Deser C, Clement A, Tomas R (2014b) Equatorial signatures of the Pacific Meridional Modes: dependence on mean climate state. Geophys Res Lett 41(2):568–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W, Vecchi GA, Murakami H, Villarini G, Jia L (2016) The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. J Clim 29(1):381–398

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their constructive comments. The authors would also like to acknowledge CESM1 (CAM5) Last Millennium Ensemble Community Project and supercomputing resources provided by NSF/CISL/Yellowstone. Salary support for SCS was provided by NSF14-59726, to CDC. AJM and DJA were partially supported by NSF (OCE1419306) and NOAA (MAPP, NA17OAR4310106). Support for DJA additionally came from the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship (DGE-1144086).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    Sara C. Sanchez

  2. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92037, USA

    Dillon J. Amaya, Arthur J. Miller, Shang-Ping Xie & Christopher D. Charles

Authors
  1. Sara C. Sanchez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dillon J. Amaya
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Arthur J. Miller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Shang-Ping Xie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Christopher D. Charles
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sara C. Sanchez.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 6680 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sanchez, S.C., Amaya, D.J., Miller, A.J. et al. The Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium. Clim Dyn 53, 3547–3560 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04740-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04740-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation