Abstract
Impact of multi-year La Niña events on South and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The analysis is carried out for the successive two summers, referred to as the first and second years during the period of 1948–2016. Composite analysis suggests that La Niña related sea surface temperature cooling is slightly high in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the first year summer. This anomalous cooling associated with La Niña is slightly shifted towards south and south-central Pacific Ocean during the second year. An Atlantic Niño like pattern is evident in the first year unlike the second year. Negative rainfall anomalies are apparent over most of the south Asian region except Bangladesh and Sundarbans, during the first year. Moisture convergence corroborated by low-level circulation to the north of Bangladesh and central India supports the positive rainfall anomalies in the first year. A weak circulation and negative vertically integrated moisture (VIM) anomalies in the rest of the subcontinent are consistent with the negative rainfall anomalies. In addition to these changes, the Atlantic Niño has also been found to be influencing the South Asian rainfall, remotely, during the first year. In the case of the second year, positive rainfall anomalies over the south Asian monsoon region is noted. An anomalous low-level cyclonic circulation over the central Bay of Bengal enhanced the moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent, causing positive rainfall anomalies. Moreover, an anomalous upper level divergence extends from the southeast Indian Ocean, towards the Indian subcontinent, due to La Niña’s response in the second year, which is found to be weak in the first year. This clearly suggests that the enhanced rainfall over the South Asian region is influenced remotely by La Niña forcing as well as local circulation changes during both the years. The East Asian monsoon region reported a tri-pole like structure in the rainfall anomalies, with positive values over southern and central China and negative over parts of Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia regions and north-east China—North Korea during the first year and vice-versa in the second year. A positive–negative–positive structure in the VIM anomalies is seen in the East Asian region and it supports similar rainfall anomalies during the second year. We have further examined the ability of CMIP5 models in representing multiyear La Niña teleconnections to the south and East Asian summer monsoons. Some models are able to reproduce the South Asian rainfall and circulation anomalies well in the second year, but failed to do so, in the first. The factors responsible for weak teleconnections in the models are discussed in detail.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau NC, Scott JD et al (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15(16):2205–2231. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C2205:TABTIO%3E2.0.CO;2
Andrews ED, Antweiler RC, Neiman PJ, Ralph FM (2004) Influence of ENSO on flood frequency along the California coast. J Clim 17(2):337–348. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C0337:IOEOFF%3E2.0.CO;2
Angell JK (1981) Comparison of variations in atmospheric quantities with sea surface temperature variations in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 109(2):230–243. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109%3C0230:COVIAQ%3E2.0.CO;2
Baohua R, Ronghui H (1999) Interannual variability of the convective activities associated with the East Asian summer monsoon obtained from TBB variability. Adv Atmos Sci 16(1):77–90. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-999-0005-4
Barlow M, Cullen H, Lyon B (2002) Drought in central and southwest Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation. J Clim 15(7):697–700. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C0697:DICASA%3E2.0.CO;2
Bhalme HN, Mooley DA, Jadhav SK (1983) Fluctuations in the drought/flood area over India and relationships with the southern oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 111(1):86–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111%3C0086:FITDAO%3E2.0.CO;2
Boening C, Willis JK, Landerer FW, Nerem RS, Fasullo J (2012) The 2011 La Niña: so strong, the oceans fell. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053055
Chen M, Li T, Shen X, Wu B (2016) Relative roles of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in causing evolution asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 29(6):2201–2220. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0547.1
Choi K-Y, Vecchi GA, Wittenberg AT (2013) ENSO transition, duration, and amplitude asymmetries: role of the nonlinear wind stress coupling in a conceptual model. J Clim 26(23):9462–9476. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00045.1
Chowdary JS, Harsha HS, Gnanaseelan C, Srinivas G, Parekh A, Pillai P, Naidu CV (2017) Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño. Clim Dyn 48(7–8):2707–2727. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3233-1
Deppenmeier AL, Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W (2016) The Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 47(7–8):2691–2707. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2992-z
DiNezio PN, Deser C (2014) Nonlinear controls on the persistence of La Niña. J Clim 27(19):7335–7355. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00033.1
DiNezio PN, Deser C, Karspeck A, Yeager S, Okumura Y, Danabasoglu G, Rosenbloom N, Caron J, Meehl GA (2017a) A 2 year forecast for a 60–80% chance of La Niña in 2017–2018. Geophys Res Lett 44(22):11624–11635. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074904
DiNezio PN, Deser C, Okumura Y, Karspeck A (2017b) Predictability of 2-year La Niña events in a coupled general circulation model. Clim Dyn 49(11–12):4237–4261. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3575-3
Feng L, Zhang R-H, Wang Z, Chen X (2015) Processes leading to second-year cooling of the 2010–12 La Niña event, diagnosed using GODAS. Adv Atmos Sci 32(3):424–438. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4012-8
Frauen C, Dommenget D (2010) El Niño and La Niña amplitude asymmetry caused by atmospheric feedbacks. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044444
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106(449):447–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Gill AE, Rasmusson EM (1983) The 1982–1983 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature 306(5940):229–234. https://doi.org/10.1038/306229a0
Godfred-Spenning CR, Reason JC (2002) Interannual variability of lower-tropospheric moisture transport during the Australian monsoon. Int J Climatol 22(5):509–532. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.710
Gordon AL, Fine RA (1996) Pathways of water between the Pacific and Indian Oceans in the Indonesian seas. Nature 379(6561):146–149. https://doi.org/10.1038/379146a0
Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W (2007) Extratropical atmospheric response to equatorial Atlantic cold tongue anomalies. J Clim 20(10):2076–2091. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4130.1
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Zhong M (1997) El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J Clim 10(8):1769–1786. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3C1769:ENOLNA%3E2.0.CO;2
Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Xue Y, Jha B (2014) Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña? Clim Dyn 42(3–4):1029–1042. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1917-3
Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Huang B, Zhu J, Zhang R-H, Jin FF (2017) Asymmetric evolution of El Niño and La Niña: the recharge/discharge processes and role of the off-equatorial sea surface height anomaly. Clim Dyn 49(7–8):2737–2748. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3498-4
Huang R, Jilong C, Gang H (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24(6):993–1023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0993-x
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–71. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0437:TNYRP%3E2.0.CO;2
Keenlyside NS, Latif M (2007) Understanding equatorial Atlantic interannual variability. J Clim 20(1):131–142. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3992.1
Keshavamurty RN (1982) Response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and the teleconnections of the Southern Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 39(6):1241–59. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039%3C1241:ROTATS%3E2.0.CO;2
Kessler WS (2002) Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events? Geophys Res Lett 29(23):40–44. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015924
Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1997) Climatic impact of El Niño/La Niña on the Indian monsoon: a new perspective. Weather 52(2):39–46. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06267.x
Kucharski F, Joshi MK (2017) Influence of tropical South Atlantic sea-surface temperatures on the Indian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143(704):1351–1363. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3009
Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Tompkins AM, Feudale L, Ruti P, Dell’Aquila A (2009) A Gill–Matsuno-type mechanism explains the tropical Atlantic influence on African and Indian monsoon rainfall. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135(640):569–579. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.406
Kucharski F, Parvin A, Farneti R, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Martin-Rey M, Polo I, Mohino E, Losada T, Mechoso CR (2016) The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings. Atmosphere 7(2):1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7020029
Kug J-S, An SI, Jin F-F, Kang IS (2005) Preconditions for El Niño and La Niña onsets and their relation to the Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 32(5):L05706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021674
Kumar KK, Soman MK, Kumar RK (1995) Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a review. Weather 50(12):449–467. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1995.tb06071.x
Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284(5423):2156–2159. https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.284.5423.2156
Li CY, Mu MQ (2000) Relationship between East Asian winter monsoon, warm pool situation and ENSO cycle. Chin Sci Bull 45(16):1448–1455
Li G, Xie SP (2012) Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multi-model ensembles. Geophys Res Lett 39(22):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053777
Li G, Xie SP (2014) Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J Clim 27(4):1765–1780. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1
Li G, Du Y, Xu H, Ren B (2015) An intermodel approach to identify the source of excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue in CMIP5 models and uncertainty in observational datasets. J Clim 28(19):7630–7640. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0168.1
Li G, Xie SP, Du Y, Luo Y (2016) Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Clim Dyn 47(12):3817–3831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3043-5
Li G, Xie SP, He C, Chen Z (2017) Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat Clim Change 7(10):708–712. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3387
Loon van H, Shea DJ (1985) The Southern Oscillation. Part IV: the precursors south of 15°S to the extremes of the oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 113(12):2063–2074. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113%3C2063:TSOPIT%3E2.0.CO;
Lübbecke JF, McPhaden MJ (2013) A comparative stability analysis of Atlantic and Pacific Niño modes. J Clim 26(16):5965–5980. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00758.1
Luo J-J, Liu G, Hendon H, Alves O, Yamagata T (2017) Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012. Sci Rep 7(1):2276. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01479-9
Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 44(1):25–43. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.44.1_25
Ohba M, Ueda H (2009) Role of nonlinear atmospheric response to SST on the asymmetric transition process of ENSO. J Clim 22(1):177–192. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2334.1
Okumura YM, Deser C (2010) Asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 23(21):5826–5843. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3592.1
Okumura YM, Ohba M, Deser C, Ueda H (2011) A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 24(15):3822–3829. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3999.1
Okumura YM, DiNezio P, Deser C (2017) Evolving impacts of multiyear La Niña events on atmospheric circulation and U.S. drought. Geophys Res Lett 44(22):11, 614–11, 623
Pai DS, Sridhar L, Badwaik MR, Rajeevan M (2015) Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901–2010) high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall data set. Clim Dyn 45(3–4):755–776. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2307-1
Pant G, Parthasarathy SB (1981) Some aspects of an association between the southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon. Arch Meteorol Geophys Bioclimatol Ser B 29:245–252
Philander SGH (1983) El Niño southern oscillation phenomena. Nature 302(5906):295–301. https://doi.org/10.1038/302295a0
Polo I, Martin-Rey M, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Kucharski F, Mechoso CR (2014) Processes in the Pacific La Niña onset triggered by the Atlantic Niño. Clim Dyn 44(1–2):115–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2354-7
Pottapinjara V, Girishkumar MS, Ravichandran M, Murtugudde R (2014) Influence of the Atlantic zonal mode on monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal during boreal summer. J Geophys Res Atmos 119(11):6456–6469. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021494
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91(3):296–306
Ramu DA, Sabeerali CT, Chattopadhyay R, Nagarjuna Rao D, George G, Dhakate AR, Salunke K, Srivastava A, Rao SA (2016) Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution. J Geophys Res Atmos 121(5):2205–2221. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024629
Ramu DA, Chowdary JS, Ramakrishna VS, Kumar OS (2018) Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models. Theor Appl Climatol 132(1–2):465–478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2092-y
Rasmusson EM (1985) El Niño and variations in climate: large-scale interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific can dramatically affect weather patterns around the world. Am Sci 73(2):168–177
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, García-Serrano J, Losada T, Mohino E, Mechoso CR, Kucharski F (2009) Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040048
Sampe T, Xie SP (2010) Large-scale dynamics of the Meiyu-Baiu rainband: environmental forcing by the westerly jet. J Clim 23(1):113–134. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3128.1
Sikka DR (1980) Some aspects of the large scale fluctuations of summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the planetary and regional scale circulation parameters. J Earth Syst Sci 89(2):179–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02913749
Singh P, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2013) Impact of prolonged La Niña events on the Indian Ocean with a special emphasis on southwest Tropical Indian Ocean SST. Glob Planet Change 100:28–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2012.10.010
Song F, Zhou T, Qian Y (2014) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 41(2):596–603. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058705
Takaya K, Nakamura H (2001) A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci 58(6):608–627. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058%3C0608:AFOAPI%3E2.0.CO;2
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Trenberth KE, Hoar TJ (1997) El Niño and climate change. Geophys Res Lett 24(23):3057–3060. https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL03092
Wang CZ (2002) Atmospheric circulation cells associated with the El Niño-southern oscillation. J Clim 15(4):399–419. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C0399:ACCAWT%3E2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Wu R, Lau K-M (2001) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the Western North Pacific–East Asian monsoons. J Clim 14(20):4073–90. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3C4073:IVOTAS%3E2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere–warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian–Australian monsoon variation. J Clim 16(8):1195–1211. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16%3C1195:AOIAII%3E2.0.CO;2
Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Q J R Meteorol Soc 118(507):877–926. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711850705
Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res Oceans 103(C7):14451–14510. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC02719
Wu B, Li T, Zhou T (2010) Asymmetry of atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Western North Pacific between El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 23(18):4807–4822. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3222.1
Yadav RK (2009a) Changes in the large-scale features associated with the Indian summer monsoon in the recent decades. Int J Climatol 29(1):117–133. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1698
Yadav RK (2009b) Role of equatorial central Pacific and Northwest of North Atlantic 2-metre surface temperatures in modulating Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 32(4):549–563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0410-x
Yadav RK (2017) On the relationship between east equatorial Atlantic SST and ISM through Eurasian wave. Clim Dyn 48(1–2):281–295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3074-y
Yadav RK, Srinivas G, Chowdary JS (2018) Atlantic Niño modulation of the Indian summer monsoon through Asian jet. Clim Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0029-5
Yu JY, Mechoso CR (1999) Links between annual variations of Peruvian stratocumulus clouds and of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. J Clim 12(1993):3305–3318
Zebiak SE (1993) Air–sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006%3C1567:AIITEA%3E2.0.CO;2
Zheng F, Feng L, Zhu J (2015) An incursion of off-equatorial subsurface cold water and its role in triggering the ‘Double Dip’ La Niña event of 2011. Adv Atmos Sci 32(6):731–742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4080-9
Acknowledgements
We wish to acknowledge the support of ESSO-IITM, MoES. We thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments/suggestions which have helped us to improve the manuscript. Inputs and help from Dr. Aditi Deshpande, Savitribai Phule Pune University are also acknowledged. NCL has been used for preparing the manuscript figures.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Raj Deepak, S.N., Chowdary, J.S., Dandi, A.R. et al. Impact of multiyear La Niña events on the South and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 52, 6989–7011 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4561-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4561-0