Zusammenfassung
Euroskeptische Parteien sind ein wesentlicher Faktor für die Politisierung der Europäischen Union. Diese haben das Thema Europäische Integration aufgegriffen, um ihre Wahlchancen zu erhöhen. Gleichzeitig gelang es ihnen, die neu entstandene politische Konfliktlinie für sich zu mobilisieren. Nicht zuletzt aus diesen Gründen erhalten euroskeptische Parteien bei nationalen, aber insbesondere auch bei Europawahlen immer höhere Stimmenanteile. Den bisherigen Höhepunkt stellt die Wahl 2014 dar: Nie zuvor in der Geschichte der Europawahlen haben sich so viele Menschen entschieden, einer euroskeptischen Partei ihre Stimme zu geben. Neben der Tatsache, dass das Interesse der Bürger an diesen Parteien generell im Laufe der Europäischen Integration gestiegen ist, kann auch die Finanz- bzw. Eurokrise als eine Erklärung für diesen Anstieg herangezogen werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigen wir uns in dem vorliegenden Beitrag mit der Entscheidung der Wähler für euroskeptische Parteien im Schatten der Wirtschaftskrise. Wir verwenden Daten der Europawahlstudie 2014 und untersuchen die verschiedenen Mechanismen der Krise und deren Auswirkungen auf die Wahlentscheidung der Bürger für euroskeptische Parteien. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass auch die Wirtschaftskrise dazu beitrug, dass sich die Bürger bei der Europawahl 2014 für euroskeptische Parteien entschieden.
Abstract
Eurosceptic parties are often described as a trigger for the politicization of the European Union. Most representatives of this party family used the European Integration issue in order to increase their vote share in elections. They thus seized the opportunity to mobilize the new conflict over Europe. This is certainly one reason why Eurosceptic parties gain more and more votes not only in national elections, but in particular in political contests at the European level of governance. More voters than ever before in the history of elections to the European Parliament casted their ballot for a Eurosceptic party in 2014. Beside the fact that public interest for these parties increased continuously in the course of European Integration, the financial or euro crisis are assumed to be responsible for this strong Eurosceptic vote. Against this background, the present contribution studies voters’ decisions to cast their ballot for Eurosceptic parties in the shadow of the economic crisis. Findings to the question whether the economic crisis has an impact on voting decisions stem mainly from case studies. In contrast, this study offers a cross-national set-up together with a broad understanding of the crisis phenomenon. Using data from the European Election Study 2014, our findings show that the crisis indeed determines to some degree the voting decision for a Eurosceptic party.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
Literatur
Anderson, C. J. 1995. Blaming the Government. Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies. New York: Sharpe.
Anderson, C. J. 2000. Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective. Electoral Studies 19 (2-3): 151-170.
Armingeon, K., und B. Ceka. 2014. The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system. European Union Politics 15 (1): 82-107.
Armingeon, K., und K. Guthmann. 2014. Democracy in crisis? The declining support for national democracy in European countries, 2007–2011. European Journal of Political Research 53 (3): 423-442.
Bauer, G. 2015. Graphical display of regression results. In The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, Hrsg. H. Best und C. Wolf, 205-224. Los Angeles: SAGE.
Bellucci, P. 2014. The Political Consequences of Blame Attribution for the Economic Crisis in the 2013 Italian National Election. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 243-263.
Bengtsson, Å. 2004. Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters’ assignment of responsibility. European Journal of Political Research 43 (5): 749-767.
Bernstein, R., A. Chadha, und R. Montjoy. 2001. Overreporting Voting. Why It Happens And Why It Matters. Public Opinion Quaterly 65 (1): 22-44.
Brambor, T., W. R. Clark, und M. Golder. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1): 63-82.
Braun, D., S. Hutter, und A. Kerscher. 2016. What type of Europe? The salience of polity and policy issues in EP elections. European Union Politics: https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116516660387.
Braun, D., und M. Tausendpfund. 2014. The Impact of the Euro Crisis on Citizens’s Support for the European Union. Journal of European Integration 36 (3): 231-245.
Braun, D., und M. Tausendpfund. 2015. Wirtschaftskrise und politische Unterstützung im europäischen Vergleich. In Wirtschaft, Krise und Wahlverhalten, Hrsg. H. Giebler, und A. Wagner, 333-360. Baden-Baden: Nomos.
Brettschneider, F., J. W. van Deth, und E. Roller. 2003. Europäische Integration in der öffentlichen Meinung: Forschungsstand und Forschungsperspektiven. In Europäische Integration in der öffentlichen Meinung, Hrsg. F. Brettschneider, J. W. van Deth, und E. Roller, 9-26. Opladen: Leske+Budrich.
Caballero, C. 2014. Nichtwahl. In Handbuch Wahlforschung, Hrsg. J. W. Falter, und H. Schoen, 437-488. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.
Corbett, R. 2014. ‘European Elections are Second-Order Elections’: Is Received Wisdom Changing? Journal of Common Market Studies 52 (6): 1194-1198.
Daniele, G., und B. Geys. 2015. Public support for European fiscal integration in times of crisis. Journal of European Public Policy 22 (5): 650-670.
de Vries, C. E., und M. van de Wardt. 2011. EU issue salience and domestic party competition. In Issue Salience in International Politics, Hrsg. K. Oppermann und H. Viehrig, 173-187. London: Routledge.
de Vries, C. E., W. van der Brug, M. H. van Egmond, und C. van der Eijk. 2011. Individual and contextual variation in EU issue voting: The role of political information. Electoral Studies 30 (1): 16-28.
Dotti Sani, G. M., und B. Magistro. 2016. Increasingly unequal? The economic crisis, social inequalities and trust in the European Parliament in 20 European countries. European Journal of Political Research 55 (2): 246-264.
Duch, R., und R. Stevenson. 2008. The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Eichenberg, R. C., und R. J. Dalton. 2007. Post-Maastricht Blues: The Transformation of Citizen Support for European Integration, 1973-2004. Acta Politica 42 (2-3): 128-152.
Fiorina, M. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Gelman, A., und J. Hill. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Giebler, H., und A. Wagner, Hrsg. 2015. Wirtschaft, Krise und Wahlverhalten. Baden-Baden: Nomos.
Grande, E., und H. Kriesi. 2015. Die Eurokrise: Ein Quantensprung in der Politisierung des europäischen Integrationsprozesses? Politische Vierteljahresschrift 56 (3): 479-505.
Green-Pederson, C. 2012. A Giant Fast Asleep? Party Incentives and the Politicisation of European Integration. Political Studies 60 (1): 115-130.
Guo, G., und H. Zhao. 2000. Multilevel Modeling for Binary Data. Annual Review of Sociology 26: 441-462.
Haller, M. 2009. Die Europäische Integration als Elitenprozess. Das Ende eines Traums? Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
Hernández, E., und H. Kriesi. 2016. The electoral consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe. European Journal of Political Research 55 (2): 203-224.
Hix, S., und M. Marsh. 2011. Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: An analysis of European Parliament elections across time. Electoral Studies 30 (1): 4-15.
Hobolt, S. B. 2015. The 2014 European Parliament Elections: Divided in Unity? Journal of Common Market Studies 53 (S1): 6-21.
Hobolt, S. B., und C. de Vries. 2016. Turning against the Union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.05.006.
Hobolt, S. B., und J. Tilley. 2014a. Blaming Europe? Responsibility Without Accountability in the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hobolt, S. B., und J. Tilley. 2014b. Who’s in Charge? How Voters Attribute Responsibility in the European Union. Comparative Political Studies 47 (6): 795-819.
Hobolt, S. B., und C. Wratil. 2015. Public opinion and the crisis: the dynamics of support for the euro. Journal of European Public Policy 22 (2): 238-256.
Hooghe, L., und G. Marks. 2008. European Union? West European Politics 31 (1-2): 108-129.
Hooghe, L., und G. Marks. 2009. A Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to Constraining Dissensus. British Journal of Political Science 39 (1): 1-23.
Hooghe, L., G. Marks, und C. J. Wilson. 2002. Does Left/Right Structure Party Positions on European Integration? Comparative Political Studies 35 (8): 965-989.
Hox, J. J. 2002. Multilevel Analysis. Techniques and Applications. New York: Psychology Press.
Hrbek, R. 2014. Europawahl 2014: Kontinuität und neue Facetten. Integration (3): 205-227.
Indridason, I. H. 2014. The Collapse: Economic Considerations in Vote Choice in Iceland. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 134-159.
Kelbel, C., V. Van Ingelgom, und S. Verhaegen. 2016. Looking for the European Voter: Split-Ticket Voting in the Belgian Regional and European Elections of 2009 and 2014. Politics and Governance 4 (1): 116-129.
Kriesi, H. 2007. The Role of European Integration in National Election Campaigns. European Union Politics 8 (1): 83-108.
Kriesi, H. 2014. The Political Consequences of the Economic Crisis in Europe: Electoral Punishment and Popular Protest. In Mass Politics in Tough Times. Opinions, Votes, and Protest in the Great Recession, Hrsg. N. Bermeo, und L. M. Bartels, 297-333. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kriesi, H., und T. S. Pappas, Hrsg. 2015a. European Populism in the Shadow of the Great Recession. Colchester: ECPR Press.
Kriesi, H., und T. S. Pappas. 2015b. Populism in Europe During Crisis: An Introduction. In European Populism in the Shadow of the Great Recession, Hrsg. H. Kriesi und T. S. Pappas, 1-19. Colchester: ECPR Press.
Krosnick, J. A. 1999. Survey Research. Annual Review of Psychology 50: 537-567.
Kuhn, T., und F. Stoeckel. 2014. When European integration becomes costly: the euro crisis and public support for European economic governance. Journal of European Public Policy 21 (4): 624-641.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., und M. Paldam. 2000. Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral Studies 19 (2): 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., und M. Stegmaier. 2000. Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3 (1): 183-219.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., und M. Stegmaier. 2007. Economics models of voting. In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Hrsg. R. J. Dalton und H. Klingemann, 518-537. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lindberg, L. N., und S. A. Scheingold. 1970. Europe’s would-be polity. Patterns of change in the European Community. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
Lobo, M. C., und M. S. Lewis-Beck. 2012. The integration hypothesis: How the European Union shapes economic voting. Electoral Studies 31 (3): 522-528.
Maas, C. J. M. 2011. Multilevel Analysis. In International Encyclopedia of Political Science. Volume 5, Hrsg. B. Badie, D. Berg-Schlosser und L. Morlino, 1637-1641. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
Magalhaes, P. C. 2014. The Elections of the Great Recession in Portugal: Performance Voting under a Blurred Responsibility for the Economy. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 180-202.
Marsh, M. 1998. Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections. British Journal of Political Science 28 (4): 591-607.
Marsh, M., und S. Mikhaylov. 2014. A Conservative Revolution: The Electoral Response to Economic Crisis in Ireland. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 160-179.
Meijers, M. J. 2015. Contagious Euroscepticism: The impact of Eurosceptic support on mainstream party positions on European integration. Party Politics: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815601787.
Nadeau, R., R. G. Niemi, und A. Yoshinaka. 2002. A cross-national analysis of economic voting: taking account of the political context across time and nations. Electoral Studies 21 (4): 540-542.
Okolikj, M., und S. Quinlan. 2016. Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections. Politics and Governance 4 (1): 145-166.
Powell, G. B. Jr., und G. D. Whitten. 1993. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391-414.
Rabe-Hesketh, S., und A. Skrondal. 2012. Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata. Volume II: Categorical Responses, Counts, and Survival. College Station: Stata Press.
Reif, K. 1993. Ein Ende des Permissive Consensus? Zum Wandel europapolitischer Einstellungen in der öffentlichen Meinung der EG-Mitgliedsstaaten. In Der Vertrag von Maastricht in der wissenschaftlichen Kontroverse, Hrsg. R. Hrbek, 23-40. Baden-Baden: Nomos.
Reif, K., und H. Schmitt. 1980. Nine Second-Order National Elections – A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results. European Journal of Political Research 8 (1): 3-44.
Risse, T. 2015. European Public Spheres: Politics is Back. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Roose, J. 2015. Politisiert die Krise? Veränderungen bei der Diskussion EU-politischer Fragen in der Bevölkerung. In Empirische Kultursoziologie. Festschrift für Jürgen Gerhards zum 60. Geburtstag, Hrsg. J. Rössel und J. Roose, 425-454. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.
Roth, F., D. Gros, und F. Nowak-Lehmann D. 2014. Crisis and Citizens’ Trust in the European Central Bank – Panel Data Evidence for the Euro Area, 1999–2012. Journal of European Integration 36 (3): 247-265.
Schmitt, H. 2005. The European Parliament Elections of June 2004: Still Second-Order? West European Politics 28 (3): 650-679.
Schmitt, H., S. B. Hobolt, S. A. Popa, E. Teperoglou, und European Parliament. 2015a. European Parliament Election Study 2014, Voter Study, First Post-Election Survey (ZA5160, Data file Version 3.0.0). Köln: GESIS.
Schmitt, H., S. Hobolt, und S. A. Popa. 2015b. Does personalization increase turnout? Spitzenkandidaten in the 2014 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics 16 (3): 347-368.
Schmitt, H., und E. Teperoglou. 2015. The 2014 European Parliament Elections in Southern Europe: Second-Order or Critical Elections? South European Society and Politics 20 (3): 287-309.
Schmitt, H., und İ. Toygür. 2016. European Parliament Elections of May 2014: Driven by National Politics or EU Policy Making? Politics and Governance 4 (1): 167-181.
Seib, P., und S. Munzert. 2013. Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys. Electoral Studies 32 (1): 186-196.
Serricchio, F., M. Tsakatika, und L. Quaglia. 2013. Euroscepticism and the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies 51 (1): 51-64.
Singer, M. 2011. When do voters actually think “It’s the Economy”? Evidence from the 2008 presidential campaign. Electoral Studies 30 (4): 621-632.
Snijders, T. A., und R. J. Bosker. 1999. Multilevel Analysis. An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modeling. London: Sage.
Spoon, J.-J.. 2012. How salient is Europe? An analysis of European election manifestos, 1979-2004. European Union Politics 13 (4): 588-579.
Steenbergen, M. R., und D. J. Scott. 2004. Contesting Europe? The salience of European integration as a party issue. In European Integration and Political Conflict, Hrsg. G. Marks, und M. R. Steenbergen, 165-192. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Taggart, P., und A. Szczerbiak. 2004. Contemporary Euroscepticism in the party systems of the European Union candidate states of Central and Eastern Europe. European Journal of Political Research 43 (1): 1-27.
Torcal, M. 2014. The Incumbent Electoral Defeat in the 2011 Spanish National Elections: The Effect of the Economic Crisis in an Ideological Polarized Party System. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 203-221.
Treib, O. 2014. The voter says no, but nobody listens: causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European elections. Journal of European Public Policy 21 (10): 1541-1554.
van der Eijk, C., und M. N. Franklin. 2004. Potential for contestation on European matters at national elections in Europe. In European integration and political conflict, Hrsg. G. Marks und M. R. Steenbergen, 32-50. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
van Erkel, P. F. A., und T. W. G. van der Meer. 2016. Macroeconomic performance, political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within-country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999-2011. European Journal of Political Research 55 (1): 177-197.
Whitten, G. D., und H. D. Palmer. 1999. Cross-national analyses of economic voting. Electoral Studies 18 (1): 49-67.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Braun, D., Tausendpfund, M. (2018). Europawahlen 2014. In: Anders, L., Scheller, H., Tuntschew, T. (eds) Parteien und die Politisierung der Europäischen Union. Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-19283-9_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-19283-9_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer VS, Wiesbaden
Print ISBN: 978-3-658-19282-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-658-19283-9
eBook Packages: Social Science and Law (German Language)