Abstract
Rational expectations is an equilibrium concept that attributes a common model (a joint probability distribution over exogenous variables and outcomes) to nature and to all agents in the model. The rational expectations equilibrium concept makes parameters describing agents’ belief disappear as components of a model, giving rise to the cross-equation restrictions that offer rational expectations models their empirical power.
This chapter was originally published in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008. Edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume
Bibliography
Blanchard, O.J., and C.M. Kahn. 1980. The solution of linear difference models under rational expectations. Econometrica 48: 1305–1311.
Brock, W.A. 1982. Asset prices in a production economy. In Economics of information and uncertainty, ed. J.J. McCall. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Brock, W.A., and L. Mirman. 1972. Optimal economic growth under uncertainty: The discounted case. Journal of Economic Theory 4: 479–513.
Cagan, P. 1956. The monetary dynamics of hyperinflation. In Studies in the quantity theory of money, ed. M. Friedman. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Calvo, G.A. 1978. On the time consistency of optimal policy in a monetary economy. Econometrica 46: 1411–1428.
Evans, G.W., and S. Honkapohja. 2001. Learning and expectations in macroeconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Friedman, M. 1957. A theory of the consumption function. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Fudenberg, D., and D.K. Levine. 1998. The theory of learning in games. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Hansen, L.P., and T.J. Sargent. 1980. Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2: 7–46.
Hansen, L.P., and K.J. Singleton. 1982. Generalized instrumental variables estimation of nonlinear rational expectations models. Econometrica 50: 1269–1286.
Judd, K. 1998. Numerical methods in economics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Kreps, D.M. 1998. Anticipated utility and dynamic choice. In Frontiers of research in economic theory: The Nancy L. Schwartz Memorial Lectures, 1983–1997, ed. D.P. Jacobs, E. Kalai, and M.I. Kamien. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Krusell, P., and A. Smith. 1998. Income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy. Journal of Political Economy 106: 867–896.
Kydland, F.E., and E.C. Prescott. 1977. Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy 85: 473–491.
Kydland, F.E., and E.C. Prescott. 1980. Dynamic optimal taxation, rational expectations and optimal control. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2: 79–91.
Kydland, F.E., and E.C. Prescott. 1982. Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica 50: 1345–1370.
Ljungqivst, L., and T.J. Sargent. 2004. Recursive macroeconomic theory, 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Lucas Jr., R.E. 1976. Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. In The Phillips curve and the labor market, Vol. 1 of Carnegie-Rochester conference in public policy, ed. K. Brunner and A. Meltzer. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Lucas Jr., R.E. 1978. Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica 46: 1429–1445.
Lucas Jr., R.E., and E.C. Prescott. 1971. Investment under uncertainty. Econometrica 39: 659–681.
Marcet, A., and T.J. Sargent. 1989. Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models. Journal of Economic Theory 48: 337–368.
Muth, J.F. 1960. Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 55: 299–306.
Muth, J.F. 1961. Rational expectations and the theory of the price movements. Econometrica 29: 315–335.
Nerlove, M. 1967. Distributed lags and unobserved components in economic time series. In Ten economic studies in the tradition of Irving Fisher, ed. W. Fellner. New York: Wiley.
Rosen, S., and R.H. Topel. 1988. Housing investment in the United States. Journal of Political Economy 96: 718–740.
Rosen, S., K.M. Murphy, and J.A. Scheinkman. 1994. Cattle cycles. Journal of Political Economy 102: 468–492.
Ryoo, J., and S. Rosen. 2004. The engineering labor market. Journal of Political Economy 112: S110–S139.
Sargent, T.J. 1977. The demand for money during hyperinflations under rational expectations: I. International Economic Review 18: 59–82.
Sargent, T.J. 1979. Macroeconomic theory. New York: Academic Press.
Sargent, T.J. 1984. Autoregressions, expectations, and advice. American Economic Review 74: 408–415.
Sargent, T.J. 1999. The conquest of American inflation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Sargent, T.J., and N. Wallace. 1976. Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 2: 169–183.
Smets, F., and R. Wouter. 2003. An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area. Journal of the European Economic Association 1: 1123–1175.
Whiteman, C.H. 1983. Linear rational expectations models: A users guide. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Whittle, P. 1983. Prediction and regulation by linear least-square methods, 2nd ed. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Woodford, M. 1990. Learning to believe in sunspots. Econometrica 58: 277–307.
Woodford, M. 2003. Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2008 The Author(s)
About this entry
Cite this entry
Sargent, T.J. (2008). Rational Expectations. In: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1684-2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1684-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-95121-5
eBook Packages: Springer Reference Economics and FinanceReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences
Publish with us
Chapter history
-
Latest
Rational Expectations- Published:
- 06 March 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1684-2
-
Original
Rational Expectations- Published:
- 27 November 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1684-1