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Transient hysteresis of near-surface permafrost response to external forcing

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Abstract

Estimates of changes in near-surface permafrost (NSP) area S p relative to change in globally averaged surface air temperature T g are made by using the global climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (IAP RAS CM). For ensemble of runs forced by scenarios constructed as return-to-preindustrial continuations of the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios family, a possibility of transient hysteresis in dependence of S p versus T g is exhibited: in some temperature range which depends on imposed scenario of external forcing, NSP area is larger, at the same global mean surface air temperature, in a warming climate than in a cooling climate. This hysteresis is visible more clearly for scenarios with higher concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in comparison to those in which this concentration is lower. Hysteresis details are not sensitive to the type of the prescribed continuation path which is used to return the climate to the preindustrial state. The multiple-valued dependence of S p on T g arises due to dependence of soil state in the regions of extra-tropical wetlands and near the contemporary NSP boundaries on sign of external climatic forcing. To study the dependence of permafrost hysteresis on amplitude and temporal scale of external forcing, additional model runs are performed. These runs are forced by idealised scenarios of atmospheric CO2 content varying, depending on run, with periods from 100 to 1,000 year and with different amplitudes. It is shown that the above-mentioned hysteresis is related to the impact of phase transitions of soil water on apparent inertia of the system as well as to the impact of soil state on atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation transfer in the atmosphere.

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Acknowledgments

The results of this paper were reported at the conference ENVIROMIS-2012 (Irkutsk, summer 2012). The authors are grateful to participants of this conference for important feedbacks on the presented results, especially for E. A. Dyukarev and V. N. Krupchatnikov. In addition, authors thank anonymous referee whose comments greatly improved the paper. The work has been supported by the the President of Russia Grant 5467.2012.5, by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, by the Programs of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and by the Programs of the Russian Ministry for Science and Education (contracts 14.740.11.1043, 21.519.11.5004, 11.519.11.5006, and 74–OK/11–4).

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  1. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, 3 Pyzhevsky, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    Alexey V. Eliseev, Pavel F. Demchenko, Maxim M. Arzhanov & Igor I. Mokhov

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  1. Alexey V. Eliseev
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  2. Pavel F. Demchenko
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  3. Maxim M. Arzhanov
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  4. Igor I. Mokhov
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Correspondence to Alexey V. Eliseev.

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Eliseev, A.V., Demchenko, P.F., Arzhanov, M.M. et al. Transient hysteresis of near-surface permafrost response to external forcing. Clim Dyn 42, 1203–1215 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1672-5

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