Abstract
The Youth in Transition Survey is used to follow the postsecondary education (PSE) pathways and outcomes of Canadian youth over the mid 2000s. Students starting at community colleges and four year universities are analyzed separately. First program outcomes are reported, showing the proportions of students who leave their first programs but remain in PSE by switching/transferring to other programs, institutions, or levels. Multinomial regression estimates correlates of students’ first program switching and leaving decisions. Five year graduation rates are calculated to show the importance of different pathways (across programs, institutions, and levels) to earning a PSE credential; in the aggregate and for subgroups of students. Transfers constitute important but not terribly large pathways for Canadian students to adjust their PSE and obtain PSE credentials. We calculate the resulting extent to which institution specific measures of persistence, PSE leaving, and graduation rates misstate the rates experienced by students. Compared to American students, university and community college starters in Canada have higher persistence and graduation rates and lower transfer rates across institutions. For community college starters, much of the difference is due to the relative lack of well defined pathways from community colleges to universities in Canada. We find that students with more family resources are better able to transfer across programs or institutions in order to obtain a PSE credential.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adelman, C. (2006). The toolbox revisited: paths to degree completion from high school through college. Washington: U.S. Department of Education.
Adelman, C. (2009). The spaces between numbers: getting international data on higher education straight. Washington: Institute for Higher Education Policy.
Aina, C. (2013). Parental background and university dropout in Italy. Higher Education, 65(4), 437–456.
Bach, S. K., Banks, M. T., Kinnick, M. K., Ricks, M. F., Stoering, J. M., & Walleri, R. D. (2000). Student attendance patterns and performance in an urban postsecondary environment. Research in Higher Education, 41(3), 315–330.
Bean, J. (1980). Dropouts and turnover: the synthesis and test of a causal model of student attrition. Research in Higher Education, 12(2), 155–187.
Belloc, F., Maruotti, A., & Petrella, L. (2010). University drop-out: an italian experience. Higher Education, 60(2), 127–138.
Butlin, G. (2000). Determinants of university and community college leaving. Education Quarterly Review., 6(4), 8–23.
Cabrera, A. F., Burkum, K., & LaNasa, S. (2005). Pathways to a four year degree: determinants of transfer and degree completion. In Alan Seidman (Ed.), College student retention (pp. 155–214). Westport CT: Praeger Publishers.
Cabrera, A. F., Nora, A., & Casteneda, M. B. (1993). College persistence. Journal of Higher Education, 64(2), 123–139.
Chen, E., & Oderkirk, J. (1997). Varied pathways: the undergraduate experience in ontario. Education Quarterly Review, 4(3), 47–62.
Choy, S. P. (2002). Access and persistence: findings from 10 years of longitudinal research on students. Washington: American Council on Education.
DesJardins, S. L., Ahlburg, D. A., & McCall, B. P. (2002). A temporal investigation of factors related to timely degree completion. Journal of Higher Education, 73(5), 555–581.
Dooley, M., Payne, A., & Robb, L. (2012). Persistence and academic success in university. Canadian Public Policy, 38(3), 315–339.
Dougherty, K. J., & Kienzl, G. S. (2006). It’s not enough to get through the open door: inequalities by social background in transfer from community colleges to four-year colleges. Teachers College Record, 108(3), 452–487.
Finnie, R., Mueller, R. E., Sweetman, A., & Usher, A. (2008). Who goes? who stays? what matters?. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Finnie, R., & Qiu, H. (2008). The patterns of persistence in post-secondary education in canada. In R. Finnie, R. E. Mueller, A. Sweetman, & A. Usher (Eds.), Who goes? who stays? what matters? (pp. 179–208). Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Gilbert, S. N., & Auger, M. (1988). Student finances and university attrition PCS-6-00173. Ottawa: Department of the Secretary of State of Canada.
Goldrick-Rab, S. (2006). Following their every move: an investigation of social-class differences in college pathways. Sociology of Education, 79(1), 61–79.
Goldrick-Rab, S., & Pfeffer, F. T. (2009). Beyond access: explaining socioeconomic differences in college transfer. Sociology of Education, 82(2), 101–125.
Grayson, J. P. (1995). Does race matter?—outcomes of the first year experience in a canadian university. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 25(2), 79–109.
Grayson, J. P. (1998). Racial origin and student retention in a canadian university. Higher Education, 36(3), 323–352.
Grayson, J. P. (2003). The consequences of early adjustment to university. Higher Education, 46(4), 411–429.
Grubb, W. N. (1989). Dropouts, spells of time, and credits in postsecondary education: evidence from longitudinal surveys. Economics of Education Review, 8(1), 49–67.
Gury, N. (2011). Dropping out of higher education in france: a micro-economic approach using survival analysis. Education Economics, 19(1), 51–64.
Herzog, S. (2005). Measuring determinants of student return vs. dropout/stopout vs. transfer: a first-to-second year analysis of new freshmen. Research in Higher Education, 46(8), 883–928.
Hoachlander, G., Sikora, A., Horn, L., & Carroll, D. (2003). Community college students. NCES2003-164. Washington: U.S. Department of Education.
Johnes, G., & McNabb, R. (2004). Never give up on the good times: student attrition in the UK. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66(1), 23–47.
Lassibille, G., & Navarro Gómez, L. (2008). Why do higher education students drop out? Evidence from Spain. Education Economics, 16(1), 89–105.
Long, J. S. (1997). Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.
Marks, G.N. (2007). Completing university: Characteristics and outcomes of completing and non-completing students. Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth Research Report 51. Victoria, Australia: Australian Council for Educational Research.
Martinello, F. (2008). Transitions and adjustments in Students’ post-secondary education. In R. Finnie, R. E. Mueller, A. Sweetman, & A. Usher (Eds.), Who goes? who stays? what matters? (pp. 63–78). Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
McCormick, A. C., & Carroll, C. D. (1997). Transfer behavior among beginning postsecondary students: 1989-94. (NCES97-266). Washington: National Center for Education Statistics.
Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities. (2015). Focus on Outcomes, Centre on Students: Perspectives on Evolving Ontario’s University Funding Model. Toronto, Ontario: Ontario provincial government. https://www.tcu.gov.on.ca/pepg/audiences/universities/uff/UniversityFundingFormulaConsultationReport_2015.pdf accessed 5 March 2016.
Montmarquette, C., Mahseredjian, S., & Houle, R. (2001). The determinants of university dropouts: a bivariate probability model with sample selection. Economics of Education Review, 20(5), 475–484.
Motte, A., Qiu, H., Zhang, Y., & Bussière, P. (2008). The youth in transition survey. In R. Finnie, R. E. Mueller, A. Sweetman, & A. Usher (Eds.), Who goes? who stays? what matters? (pp. 63–78). Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Mueller, R. E. (2007). Access and persistence of students from low income backgrounds in canadian post secondary education: a review of the literature. Toronto: Education Policy Institute.
National Conference of State Legislatures. (2015). Performance-based funding for higher education. Washington, DC: National Conference of State Legislatures. http://www.ncsl.org/research/education/performance-funding.aspx accessed 7 March 2016.
Parkin, A., & Baldwin, N. (2009). Persistence in post-secondary education. In J. Berger, A. Parkin, S. Junor, & A. Motte (Eds.), The price of knowledge: access and student finance in canada (pp. 65–84). Montreal: Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation.
Pascarella, E. T., & Terenzini, P. T. (1980). Predicting freshman persistence and voluntary dropout decisions from a theoretical model. Journal of Higher Education, 51(1), 60–75.
Pascarella, E.T., & Terenzini, P.T. (1991-2005). How college affects students (Vols.1-2). San Francisco CA: Jossey-Bass.
Pike, G. R., & Graunke, S. S. (2015). Examining the effects of institutional and cohort characteristics on retention rates. Research in Higher Education, 56(2), 146–165.
Radford, A., Berkner, L., Wheeless, S., & Shepard, B. (2010). Persistence and attainment of 2003-04 beginning postsecondary students: after 6 years. (nces2011-151). Washington: National Center for Education Statistics.
Shah, C., & Burke, G. (1999). An undergraduate student flow model: australian higher education. Higher Education, 37(4), 359–375.
Shaienks, D., Gluszynski, T. & Bayard, J. (2008). Postsecondary Education—Participation and Dropping Out: Differences Across University, College, and Other Types of Postsecondary Institutions. Catalogue no. 81-595-MIE2008070, Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
Shapiro, D., Dundar,A., Wakhungu, P.K, Yuan, X., & Harrell, A. (2015a). Transfer and Mobility: A National View of Student Movement in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2008 Cohort (Signature Report No.9). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Shapiro, D., Dundar,A., Wakhungu, P.K., Yuan, X., Nathan, A. & Hwang, Y. (2015b). Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates—Fall 2009 Cohort (Signature Report No.10). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Smith, J., & Naylor, R. (2001). Determinants of degree performance in UK universities: a statistical analysis of the 1993 student cohort. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(1), 29–60.
St. John, E. P., Asker, E. H., & Hu, S. (2001). The role of finances in student choice. In M. B. Paulsen & J. C. Smart (Eds.), The finance of higher education (pp. 419–438). New York: Algora Publishing.
Stratton, L. S., O’Toole, D. M., & Wetzel, J. N. (2008). A multinomial logit model of college stopout and dropout behavior. Economics of Education Review, 27(3), 319–331.
Tinto, V. (2012). Completing college. Chicago IL: University of Chicago Press.
Van Den Berg, M. N., & Hofman, W. H. A. (2005). Student success in university education: a multi-measurement study of the impact of student and faculty factors on study progress. Higher Education, 50(3), 413–446.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank Theresa (Hanquin) Qiu for her excellent work in the earlier stages of this project, and the Statistics Canada Research Data Centres for providing access to the YITS data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Childs, S.E., Finnie, R. & Martinello, F. Postsecondary Student Persistence and Pathways: Evidence From the YITS-A in Canada. Res High Educ 58, 270–294 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-016-9424-0
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-016-9424-0