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Testing the Generality of a Trophic-cascade Model for Plague

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Abstract

Climate may affect the dynamics of infectious diseases by shifting pathogen, vector, or host species abundance, population dynamics, or community interactions. Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are highly susceptible to plague, yet little is known about factors that influence the dynamics of plague epizootics in prairie dogs. We investigated temporal patterns of plague occurrence in black-tailed prairie dogs to assess the generality of links between climate and plague occurrence found in previous analyses of human plague cases. We examined long-term data on climate and plague occurrence in prairie dog colonies within two study areas. Multiple regression analyses revealed that plague occurrence in prairie dogs was not associated with climatic variables in our Colorado study area. In contrast, plague occurrence was strongly associated with climatic variables in our Montana study area. The models with most support included a positive association with precipitation in April–July of the previous year, in addition to a positive association with the number of “warm” days and a negative association with the number of “hot” days in the same year as reported plague events. We conclude that the timing and magnitude of precipitation and temperature may affect plague occurrence in some geographic areas. The best climatic predictors of plague occurrence in prairie dogs within our Montana study area are quite similar to the best climatic predictors of human plague cases in the southwestern United States. This correspondence across regions and species suggests support for a (temperature-modulated) trophic-cascade model for plague, including climatic effects on rodent abundance, flea abundance, and pathogen transmission, at least in regions that experience strong climatic signals.

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Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge the City of Boulder Open Space Department, and Boulder County Parks and Open Space Department, particularly Mark Gershman, Cary Richardson, Bryan Pritchett, Lynn Riedel, Mark Brennan, Ann Wickman, and Jeanne Scholl for providing data on plague occurrence and information on prairie dog colonies in Boulder County. Brian Holmes helped assemble plague occurrence and prairie dog colony data in Phillips County, Montana. Sue Rodriguez-Pastor helped gather plague data from Boulder land management agencies. This research was supported by a grant (R-82909101-0) from the National Center for Environmental Research (NCER) STAR program of the US-EPA, and a grant from the NSF/NIH joint program in Ecology of Infectious Diseases (DEB-0224328).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 334 UCB, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309-0334

    Sharon K. Collinge, Whitney C. Johnson, Chris Ray & Andrew P. Martin

  2. Environmental Studies Program, 334 UCB, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309-0334

    Sharon K. Collinge

  3. Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, P.O. Box 110, Lewistown, MT, 59457

    Randy Matchett

  4. Malta Field Office, Bureau of Land Management, HC 65 Box 5000, Malta, MT, 59538

    John Grensten

  5. Kansas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, United States Geological Survey, 204 Leasure Hall, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 66506-3501

    Jack F. Cully Jr.

  6. Bacterial Zoonoses Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, 80522

    Kenneth L. Gage & Michael Y. Kosoy

  7. Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616

    Jenella E. Loye

  8. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies Program, 334 UCB, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309-0334

    Sharon K. Collinge

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  1. Sharon K. Collinge
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  2. Whitney C. Johnson
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  3. Chris Ray
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  4. Randy Matchett
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  5. John Grensten
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  6. Jack F. Cully Jr.
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  7. Kenneth L. Gage
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  8. Michael Y. Kosoy
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  9. Jenella E. Loye
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  10. Andrew P. Martin
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sharon K. Collinge.

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Collinge, S.K., Johnson, W.C., Ray, C. et al. Testing the Generality of a Trophic-cascade Model for Plague. EcoHealth 2, 102–112 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-005-3877-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-005-3877-5

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