Skip to main content
Log in

Earthquake grouping criteria for spatially heterogeneous seismicity

  • Published:
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

An advanced method for estimating the earthquake grouping parameters R cr and T cr is proposed in order to identify interrelated seismic events. The method pursues continuity with the previous algorithm suggested in (Mirzoev, 1980; 1988a; 1988b; 1992; Mirzoev and Azizova, 1983; 1984) but uses a more realistic spatial model of the background seismicity. All the calculations in the method can be fully formalized and a preliminary expert estimation of the parameters is not required. The method provides stable estimates of the critical radius R cr and time T cr of grouping. Group earthquakes make up 50 to 75% of their total number.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aki, K., Some problems in statistical seismology, Zisin, 1956, vol. 8, pp. 205–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baiesi, M. and Paczuski, M., Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks, Phys. Rev. E: Stat., Nonlinear, Soft Matter Phys., 2004, vol. 69, no. 6, pp. 66–106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bak, P., Christensen, K., Danon, L., and Scanlon, T., Unified scaling law for earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 2002, vol. 88, p. 178501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bibarsova, D.G. and Mirzoev, K.M., The program for identifying group earthquakes, in Prognoz zemletryasenii (Earthquake Prediction), Dushanbe–Moscow: Donish, 1986, vol. 6, pp. 390–410.

    Google Scholar 

  • Corral, A., Local distributions and rate fluctuations in a unified scaling law for earthquakes, Phys. Rev. E: Stat., Nonlinear, Soft Matter Phys., 2003, vol. 68, no. 3, p. 035102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davidsen, J. and Paczuski, M., Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 2005, vol. 94, p. 048501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, S.D. and Frohlich, C., Single-link cluster analysis, synthetic earthquake catalogs, and aftershock identification, Geophys. J. Int., 1991, vol. 104, pp. 289–306.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dziewonski, A.M. and Prozorov, A.G., Self-similar identification of earthquake grouping, in Vychislitel’naya seismologiya (Computational Seismology), Moscow: Nauka, 1984, vol. 16, pp. 10–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frohlich, C. and Davis, S.D., Single-link cluster analysis as a method to evaluate spatial and temporal properties of earthquake catalogs, Geophys. J. Int., 1990, vol. 100, pp. 19–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gardner, J. and Knopoff, L., Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with aftershock removed, Poissonian?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 1974, vol. 64, pp. 1363–1367.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geodakyan, E.G. and Oganesyan, S.M., On the activation of weak seismicity in central Armenia, Izv. NAN RA,Nauki o Zemle, 2011, vol. 64, no. 3, pp. 27–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirata, T., Omori’s power law aftershock sequences of microfracturing in rock fracture experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 1987, vol. 92, pp. 6215–6221.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kagan, Y. and Knopoff, L., Statistical search for non-random features of the seismicity of strong earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 1976, vol. 12, pp. 291–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kagan, Y.Y., Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues, Geophys. J. Int., 1991, vol. 106, pp. 135–148.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Kossobokov, V.G., The periods of increased probability of occurrence for the strongest earthquakes in the world, in Matematicheskie metody v seismologii i geodinamike. Vychislitel’naya seismologiya, vyp. 19 (Mathematical Methods in Seismology and Geodynamics. Computational Seismology, vol. 19), Moscow: Nauka, 1986, pp. 48–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Knopoff, L., The statistics of earthquakes in Southern California, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 1964, vol. 54, no. 6, pp. 1871–1873.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krolevets, A.N., The fault planes of the Kronotskoe earthquake of December 5, 1997, Geofizicheskii monitoring Kamchatki. Materialy nauchno-tekhnicheskoi konferentsii 17–18 yanvarya 2006, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii (Geophysical Monitoring of Kamchatka, Proc. Scientific–Technical Conference, January 17–18, 2006, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii), Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii: Ottisk, 2006, pp. 32–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Latora, V., Rapisarda, A., and Vinciguerra, S., A fractal approach to the temporal distribution of microseismicity at the low eastern flank of Mt. Etna during 1989-1994, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 1998, vol. 109, pp. 115–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Lieshout, M.N.M. and Stein, A., Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes, Math. Geosci., 2012, vol. 44, pp. 309–326. doi 10.1007/s11004-011-9380-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lukk, A.A., Spatiotemporal sequences of the weak earthquakes in the Garm region, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Fiz. Zemli, 1978, no. 2, pp. 25–37.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lukk, A.A. and Turchaninov, I.V., Identification of linear earthquake epicenter sequences in the seismic field of the Garm region, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 1998, vol. 34, no. 10, pp. 787–804.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M., Grouping of the earthquakes of Tajikistan, Izv. Akad. Nauk Tadzh. SSR. Otd Fiz.-Mat. Geol.-Khim. Nauk, 1980, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 62–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M. and Azizova, A.A., Statistical regularities in the grouping of the crustal earthquakes in Tajikistan and neighboring territories, in Zemletryaseniya Srednei Azii i Kazakhstana v 1981 (Earthquakes of Central Asia and Kazakhstan in 1981), Dushanbe: Donish, 1983, pp. 48–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M. and Azizova, A.A., Spatiotemporal pattern of earthquake grouping in Tajikistan and neighboring regions, in Zemletryaseniya Srednei Azii i Kazakhstana v 1982 (Earthquakes of Central Asia and Kazakhstan in 1982), Dushanbe: Donish, 1984, pp. 43–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M., The technique for identifying the interrelated earthquakes, Dokl. Akad. Nauk Tadzh. SSR, 1988a, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 182–186.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M., The method for identifying the interacting earthquakes in space and time, in Zemletryaseniya Srednei Azii i Kazakhstana. 1984 (Earthquakes of Central Asia and Kazakhstan in 1984), Dushanbe: Donish, 1988b, pp. 185–194.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M., Ronskii, Yu.L., and Timerkaev, V.S., On one approach to the problem of earthquake grouping, Dokl. Akad. Nauk Tadzh. SSR, 1988, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 111–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirzoev, K.M., Recomendations for identifying the group earthquakes, in Voprosy inzhenernoi seismologii. Inzhenerno-seismologicheskie issledovaniya dlya raionirovaniya seismicheskoi opasnosti. Vyp. 33 (Problems of Earthquake Engineering. Seismological Engineering Studies for Seismic Hazard Zonation, vol. 33), Moscow: Nauka, 1992, pp. 53–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Molchan, G.M. and Dmitrieva, O.E., Aftershock identification: a review and new methods, in Sovremennye metody interpretatsii seismologicheskikh dannykh. Vychislitel’naya seismologiya. Vyp. 24 (Modern Methods for Interpretation of Seismological Data. Computational Seismology, vol. 24), Moscow: Nauka, 1991, pp. 19–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Molchan, G. and Dmitrieva, O., Aftershock identification: methods and new approaches, Geophys. J. Int., 1992, vol. 109, pp. 501–516.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Musmeci, F. and Vere-Jones, D., A space-time clustering model for historical earthquakes, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 1992, vol. 44, pp. 1–11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogata, Y., Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 1988, vol. 83, no. 401, pp. 9–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omori, F., On after-shocks of earthquakes, J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo, 1894, vol. 7, pp. 111–200.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oncel, A.O., Main, I., Alptekin, O., and Cowie, P., Temporal variations in the clustering property of seismicity in the North Anatolia fault zone between 31° E and 41° E, Pure Appl. Geophys., 1996, vol. 147, pp. 147–159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prozorov, A.G. and Dziewonski, A.M., A method of studying variations in the clustering property of earthquakes: application to the analysis of global seismicity, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 1982, vol. 87, no. B4, pp. 2829–2839.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prozorov, A.G., Dynamical algorithm for identifying the aftershocks for the world earthquake catalog, in Matematicheskie metody v seismologii i geodinamike. Vychislitel’naya seismologiya. Vyp. 19 (Mathematical Methods in Seismology. Computational Seismology, vol. 19), Moscow: Nauka, 1986, pp. 58–62.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rathbun, S.L., Modeling marked spatio-temporal point patterns, Bull. Int. Stat. Inst, 1993, vol. 55, book 2, pp.379–396.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reasenberg, P., Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969–1982, J. Geophys. Res., 1985, vol. 90, no. B7, pp. 5479–5495.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saltykov, V.A., Kugaenko, Yu.A., Kravchenko, N.M., and Konovalova, A.A., A parametric representation of Kamchatka seismicity over time, J. Volcanol. Seismol., 2013, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 58–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shebalin, P.N., Chains of the epicenters as a marker of the increase in the earthquake correlation length before strong earthquakes, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2005, no. 1, pp. 3–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smalley, R.F., Chatelain, J.L., Turcott, D.L., and Prevot, D.R., A fractal approach to the clustering of earthquakes: applications to the seismicity of the New Hebrides, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 1987, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 1368–1381.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smirnov, V.B. and Lyusina, A.V., On the time structure of aftershock sequences (by the example of the Alaska and Kamchatka earthquakes), Vulkanol. Seismol., 1990, no. 6, pp. 45–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smirnov, V.B., Prognostic anomalies of seismic regime. Part 1: Technique for preparation of original data, Geofiz. Issled., 2009, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 7–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sobolev, G.A. and Ponomarev, A.V., Fizika zemletryasenii i predvestniki (Earthquake Physics and Precursors), Moscow: Nauka, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tosi, P., Seismogenic structure behaviour revealed by spatial clustering of seismicity in Umbria-Mache Region (Central Italy), Ann. Geofisica, 1998, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 215–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Utsu, T., Aftershock and earthquake statistics (1): some parameters which characterize an aftershock sequence and their interrelations, J. Fac. Sci. Hokkaido Univ., 1969, ser. 7, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 129–195.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vecchio, A., Carbone, V., Sorriso-Valvo, L., et al., Statistical properties of earthquakes clustering, Nonlinear Processes. Geophys., 2008, vol. 15, pp. 333–338. www.nonlinprocesses-geophys.net/15/333/2008/

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wyss, M., Sammis, Ch.G., Robert, M., Nadeau, R.M., and Wiemer, S., Fractal dimension and b-value on creeping and locked patches of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 2004, vol. 94, no. 2, pp. 410–421.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaliapin, I. and Ben-Zion, Y., Earthquake clusters in southern California: 1. Identification and stability, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 2013, vol. 118, pp. 1–18. doi 10.1002/jgrb.50179

    Google Scholar 

  • Zavyalov, A.D., Srednesrochnyi prognoz zemletryasenii. Osnovy, metodika, realizatsiya (Medium-Term Prediction of Earthquakes from a Set of Criteria: Principles, Methods, and Implementation), Moscow: Nauka, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., and Vere-Jones, D., Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 2002, vol. 97, pp. 369–380.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., and Vere-Jones, D., Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, J. Geophys. Res., 2004, vol. 109, B05301. doi 10.1029/2003JB002879

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. V. Deshcherevskii.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © A.V. Deshcherevskii, K.M. Mirzoev, A.A. Lukk, 2016, published in Fizika Zemli, 2016, No. 1, pp. 79–97.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Deshcherevskii, A.V., Mirzoev, K.M. & Lukk, A.A. Earthquake grouping criteria for spatially heterogeneous seismicity. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 52, 78–95 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351315060026

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351315060026

Keywords

Navigation