Abstract
The specific enhancement of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) electromagnetic oscillations a few hours prior to the strong earthquakes, which was previously mentioned in the literature, motivated us to search for the distinctive features of the mechanical (foreshock) activity of the Earth’s crust in the epicentral zones of the future earthquakes. Activation of the foreshocks three hours before the main shock is revealed, which is roughly similar to the enhancement of the specific electromagnetic ULF emission. It is hypothesized that the round-the-world seismic echo signals from the earthquakes, which form the peak of energy release 2 h 50 min before the main events, act as the triggers of the main shocks due to the cumulative action of the surface waves converging to the epicenter. It is established that the frequency of the fluctuations in the foreshock activity decreases at the final stages of the preparation of the main shocks, which probably testifies to the so-called mode softening at the approach of the failure point according to the catastrophe theory.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adushkin, V.V., Ryabova, S.A., Spivak, A.A., and Kharlamov, V.A., Response of the seismic background to geomagnetic variations, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2012, vol. 444, no. 3, pp. 642–645.
Aki, K. and Richards, P.G., Quantitative Seismology, San Francisco: Freeman, 1980.
Arnold, V.I., Teoriya katastrof (Catastrophe Theory), Moscow: Nauka, 1990.
Babich, V.M. and Buldyrev, V.S., Asimptoticheskie metody v zadachakh difraktsii korotkikh voln (Asymptotic Methods in the Short Wave Diffraction Problems), Moscow: Nauka, 1972.
Bernardi, A., Fraser-Smith, A.C., McGill, P.R., and Villard, O.G., Jr., ULF magnetic field measurements near the epicenter of the Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 1991, vol. 68, pp. 45–63.
Fraser-Smith, A.C., Bernardi, A., McGill, P.R., Ladd, M.E., Helliwell, R.A., and Villard, O.G., Jr., Lowfrequency magnetic field measurements near the epicenter of the Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake, Geophys. Rev. Lett., 1990, vol. 17, pp. 1465–1468.
Gilmore, R., Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers, New York: Wiley, 1981.
Guglielmi, A. and Zotov, O., Impact of the Earth’s oscillations on the earthquakes. arXiv:1207.0365v1 [physics.geo-ph]. 2012a. Submission history: [v1] Mon, 2 Jul 2012 13:08:54 GMT (471kb).
Guglielmi, A.V. and Zotov, O.D., Magnetic perturbations before the strong earthquakes, Izv. Phys. Solid Earth, 2012b, vol. 48, no. 2, pp. 171–173.
Guglielmi, A.V., Zavyalov, A.D., and Zotov, O.D., On the dynamics of aftershocks after Great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Joint Assembly in Gothenburg, July 22–26, 2013. Abstracts. Symposium 079. IASPEI: S301, 2013. http://iahs-iapso-iaspei2013.com.
Guglielmi, A.V., Zotov, O.D., and Zavyalov, A.D., The aftershock dynamics of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, Izv. Phys. Solid Earth, 2014, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 64–72.
Hattori, K., ULF geomagnetic changes associated with large earthquakes, Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 2004, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 329–360.
Hayakawa M., Ed., Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes, Tokyo: TERRAPUB, 1999.
Hayakawa, M., Ed., The Frontier of Earthquake Prediction Studies, Tokyo: Nihon-Senmontosho-Shuppan, 2012.
Kalashnikov, A.G., The possibilities of the magnetic methods in the problems of searching for the precursors of the earthquakes, in Trudy Geofizicheskogo Instituta AN SSSR (Transactions of the Geophysical Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR), 1954, vol. 25, pp. 180–182.
Kasahara, K., Earthquake Mechanics, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1981.
Kopytenko, Y.A., Matishvili, T.G., Voronov, P.M., Kopytenko, E.A., and Molchanov, O.A., Detection of ultra-lowfrequency emissions connected with the Spitak earthquake and its aftershock activity, based on geomagnetic pulsations data at Dusheti and Vardzia observatories, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 1993, vol. 77, pp. 85–95.
Pulinets, S., Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes: recent advances in theory and practical applications, Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 2004, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 413–435.
Samson, J.C. and Yeung, K.L., Some generalizations on the method of superposed epoch analysis, Planet. Space Sci., 1986, vol. 34, no. 11, pp. 1133–1142.
Smirnov, V.B., Prognostic anomalies of seismic rezhime: I. Technique for preparation of original data, Geofiz. Issled., 2009, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 7–22.
Sobisevich, L.E., Kanonidi, K.Kh., and Sobisevich, A.L., Observations of ultra-low-frequency geomagnetic disturbances reflecting the processes of the preparation and development of tsunamigenic earthquakes, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2010, vol. 435, no. 2, pp. 1627–1632.
Sobisevich, L.E. and Sobisevich, A.L., Dilatation structures and ULF electromagnetic quasi-oscillatory variations in the course of preparation of a strong seismic event, Vestn. Otd. Nauk Zemle RAN, 2010, vol. 2, no. NZ6027, pp. 202–213. doi: 10.2205/2010NZ000045
Sobolev, G.A., Osnovy prognoza zemletryasenii (Basics of Earthquake Prediction), Moscow: Nauka, 1993.
Sobolev, G.A., Zakrzhevskaya, N.A., and Kharin, E.P., On the relation between seismicity and magnetic storms, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2001, vol. 37, no. 11, pp. 917–927.
Sobolev, G.A., Evolution of periodic variations in the seismic intensity before strong earthquakes, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2003, vol. 39, no. 11, pp. 873–884.
Sobolev, G.A., Arora, B., Smirnov, V.B., Zavyalov, A.D., Ponomarev, A.V., Kumar, N., Chabak, S.K., and Baydiya, P.R., Prognostic anomalies of seismic regime: II. Western Himalaya, Geofiz. Issled., 2009, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 23–36.
Sobolev, G.A., Seismicity dynamics and earthquake predictability, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2011, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 445–458.
Thom, R., Structural stability, catastrophe theory, and applied mathematics, SIAM Rev., 1976, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 189–201.
Thom, R., Stabilite Structurelle et Morphogenese, Paris: Intereditions, 1977.
Zakrzhevskaya, N.A. and Sobolev, G.A., On the seismicity effect of magnetic storms, Izv. Phys. Solid Earth, 2002, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 249–261.
Zakrzhevskaya, N.A. and Sobolev, G.A., The influence of the SSC magnetic storms on the seismicity in different regions, Vilkanol. Seismol., 2004, no. 3, pp. 63–75.
Zeeman, E.S., Catastrophe theory, Sci. Am., 1976, no. 4, pp. 65–70, 75–83.
Zharkov, V.N., Vnutrennee stroenie Zemli i planet (Internal Structure of the Earth and Planets), Moscow: Nauka, 1983.
Zharkov, V.N., Fizika zemnykh nedr (Physics of the Earth’s Interior), Moscow: Nauka i Obrazovanie, 2012.
Zotov, O.D., Guglielmi, A.V., and Sobisevich, A.L., On magnetic precursors of earthquakes, Izv. Phys. Solid Earth, 2013, vol. 49, no. 6, pp. 882–889.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © A.V. Guglielmi, L.E. Sobisevich, A.L. Sobisevich, I.P. Lavrov, 2014, published in Fizika Zemli, 2014, No. 4, pp. 43–49.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Guglielmi, A.V., Sobisevich, L.E., Sobisevich, A.L. et al. Foreshocks of strong earthquakes. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 50, 501–507 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351314040053
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351314040053