Abstract
Based on the observation data for hundreds of the main shocks and thousands of aftershocks, the existence of effect of round-the-world surface seismic waves is demonstrated (let us conditionally refer to them as a round-the-world seismic echo) and the manifestations of this effect in the dynamics of the repeated shocks of strong earthquakes are analyzed. At the same time, we by no means believe this effect has been fully proven. We only present a version of our own understanding of the physical causes of the observed phenomenon and analyze the regularities in its manifestation. The effect is that the surface waves excited in the Earth by the main shock make a full revolution around the Earth and excite a strong aftershock in the epicentral zone of the main shock. In our opinion, the physical nature of this phenomenon consists in the fact that the superposition leads to a concentration of wave energy when the convergent surface waves reach the epicentral zone (cumulative effect). The effect of the first seismic echo is most manifest. Thus, the present work supports our hypothesis of the activation of rock failure under the cumulative impact of an round-the-world seismic echo on the source area which is releasing (“cooling”) after the main shock. The spatial regularities in the manifestations of this effect are established, and the independence of the probability of its occurrence on the main shock magnitude is revealed. The effect of a round-the-world seismic echo can be used to improve the reliability of the forecasts of strong aftershocks in determining the scenario for the seismic process developing in the epicentral zone of a strong earthquake that has taken place.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Baranov, S.V., Estimating aftershock process activity by Gutenberg–Richter law and ETAS model, Fundam. Issled., 2014, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 751–755.
Baranov, S.V. and Shebalin, P.N., Forecasting aftershock activity: 1. Adaptive estimates based on the Omori and Gutenberg–Richter laws, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2016, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 413–431.
Bath, M., Lateral inhomogeneities of the upper mantle, Tectonophysics, 1965, vol. 2, pp. 483–514.
Guglielmi, A.V. and Zotov, O.D., On the near-hourly hidden periodicity of earthquakes, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2013, vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 1–8.
Guglielmi, A.V., Zotov, O.D., and Zavyalov, A.D., The aftershock dynamics of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2014, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 64–72.
Guglielmi, A., Lavrov, I., Sobisevich, A., Zavyalov, A., and Zotov, O., On the foreshocks of strong earthquakes, Int. Symp. on Earth and Environmental Sciences for Future Generations. Proc. IAG General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, June 22-July 2, 2015, Springer, 2015.
Guglielmi, A.V., Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory, Phys.-Usp., 2015a, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 384–397.
Guglielmi, A.V., The cumulative effect of convergent seismic waves, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2015b, vol. 51, no. 6, pp. 915–919.
Guglielmi, A.V. and Zotov, O.D., Derivation and generalization of the Omori law, Book of Abstracts, 11th Int. Conf. and School “Problems of Geocosmos,” Section S, October 3–7, 2016, St. Petersburg, Russia, 2016, p. 210.
Guglielmi, A.V., Zavyalov, A.D., Zotov, O.D., and Lavrov, I.P., Dependence of the aftershock flow on the main shock magnitude, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2017, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 10–17.
Kasahara, K., Earthquake Mechanics, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1981.
Lutikov, A.I. and Rodina, S.N., Temporal and power parameters of aftershock process of the Kuriles-Kamchatka earthquakes, Geofiz. Issled., 2013, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 23–45.
Mogi, K., Earthquake Prediction, Tokyo: Academic Press, 1985. Omori, F., On the aftershocks of earthquake, J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo, 1894, vol. 7, pp. 111–200.
Omori, F., Horizontal Pendulum Observations of Earthquakes at Hitotsubashi (Tokyo), 1900, XV. Propagation of Seismic Waves completely round the Earth, Publications of the Earthquake Investigation Committee in foreign language, Tokyo: Earthquake Investigation Committee, 1903, vol. 13, pp. 119–124.
Peng, Z., Wu, C., and Aiken, C., Delayed triggering of microearthquakes by multiple surface waves circling the earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2011, vol. 38, p. L04306.
Rial, J.A., On the focusing of seismic body waves at the epicentre’s antipode, Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc., 1978, vol. 55, pp. 737–743.
Rial, J.A. and Cormier, V.F., Seismic waves at the epicenter’s antipode, J. Geophys. Res., 1980, vol. 85, no. B5, pp. 2661–2668.
Rodkin, M.V., Seismicity in the generalized vicinity of large earthquakes, J. Volcanol. Seismol., 2008, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 435–445.
Shebalin, P.N. and Baranov, S.V., Rapid estimation of the hazard posed by strong aftershocks for Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands, J. Volcanol. Seismol., 2017, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 295–304.
Sobolev, G.A., Osnovy prognoza zemletryasenii (Introduction to the Prediction of Earthquakes), Moscow: Nauka, 1993.
Solov’ev, S.L. and Solov’eva, O.N., Exponential distribution of the total number of repeated shocks of an earthquake and the decrease of its mean value with depth, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geofiz., 1962, no. 12, pp. 1685–1694.
Stacey, F., Physics of the Earth, New York: Wiley, 1969.
Utsu, T., Ogata, Y., and Matsu’ura, R.S., The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, J. Phys. Earth, 1995, vol. 43, pp. 1–33.
Vorob’eva, I.A., Forecasting a repeated strong earthquake, in Algoritmy prognoza zemletryasenii. Vychisl. Seismol., vyp. 37 (Earthquake Prediction Algorithms. Computational Seismology, vol. 37), Moscow: GEOS, 2006, pp. 181–285.
Zavyalov, A.D., The earthquake offshore Sumatra, Priroda (Moscow, Russ. Fed.), 2005, no. 5, pp. 29–35.
Zavyalov, A.D., Zotov, O.D., and Guglielmi, A.V., On the new properties of the aftershock flow from strong earthquakes, 3-ya nauchnaya konferentsiya “Triggernye effekty v geosistemakh,” tezisy dokladov (Abstr. 3rd Conf. “Triggered Effects in Geosystems”), Moscow, June 16-19, 2015, Moscow: IDG RAN, 2015a, pp. 33–34.
Zavyalov, A.D., Guglielmi, A.V., and Zotov, O.D., The aftershocks of the strong earthquakes: new properties, 10-ya mezhdunarodnaya seismologicheskaya shkola “Sovremennye metody obrabotki i interpretatsii seismologicheskikh dannykh” (The 10th Int. Seismological School “Modern Methods for Processing and Interpretation of Seismological Data”), Azerbaijan, Sept. 14–18, 2015, Obninsk, 2015b, p. 378.
Zavyalov, A.D., Zotov, O.D., and Guglielmi, A.V., On new properties of aftershock’s flow of the strong earthquake, 26th IUGG General Assembly 2015, Prague, Czech Republic, June 22–July 2, 2015. Volume: Earth and Environmental Sciences for Future Generations, 2015c.
Zavyalov, A.D., Zotov, O.D., and Guglielmi, A.V., On new properties of aftershock’s flow of the strong earthquakes, 2nd Int. Workshop on Tethyan Orogenesis and Metallogeny in Asia (IWTOMA) and Silk Road Higher Education Cooperation Forum. Extended abstract volume, Ma, C., Robinson, P.T., Mason, R., and He, Y., Eds., October 16–21, 2015, Wuhan, China, 2015d, pp. 185–186.
Zharkov, V.N., Fizika zemnykh nedr (Physics of the Earth’s Interior), Moscow: Nauka i obrazovanie, 2012.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © O.D. Zotov, A.D. Zavyalov, A.V. Guglielmi, I.P. Lavrov, 2018, published in Fizika Zemli, 2018, No. 1, pp. 187–202.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zotov, O.D., Zavyalov, A.D., Guglielmi, A.V. et al. On the possible effect of round-the-world surface seismic waves in the dynamics of repeated shocks after strong earthquakes. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 54, 178–191 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351318010159
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351318010159