Abstract
French popularity functions are under-studied, at least when as compared to vote functions. After a first wave of studies conducted in the wake of Lafay’s pioneering work, scholarly works on French popularity functions have been few and far between in the last two decades. And this, despite the fact that public opinion data on French popularity have been collected systematically for a long time. What is more, all the popularity function work conducted to date has made use of either the IFOP measure of satisfaction or the Sofres confidence measure as its dependent variable. In this article we build a popularity function for the French executive that compares results obtained with each of these two related, but somewhat different, monthly measures of presidential popularity. We do this comparison for the time period where the two popularity measures overlap (1978–2012). The results indicate that both survey measures are indeed similar but different.
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Notes
The Gallup question about US presidents reads as: ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the way [NAME OF THE PRESIDENT] is handling his job as president?’.
The YouGov satisfaction question about UK prime ministers reads as: ‘Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with [NAME OF PRIME MINISTER] as prime minister?’.
The Sofres confidence question about French presidents and prime ministers reads as: ‘Do you have complete confidence, some confidence, not much confidence or no confidence at all in [NAME OF PRESIDENT OR PRIME MINISTER] to solve the problems France is facing nowadays?’.
Another contribution worth mentioning is that of Sigelman (1981). Sigelman does not compare different questions, but shows that respondents are less likely to offer ‘Don’t Knows’ when the presidential approval question is asked toward the end of the questionnaire as opposed to earlier. This effect is known as a rapport effect where respondents become more willing to express an attitude or preference after a rapport has been established with the interviewer. This effect is equally explained as an intra-individual deliberation effect where respondents benefit from earlier questions to help them develop an attitude or preference (Fournier et al, 2011).
In English, it would read as: ‘Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with [NAME] as president of the Republic?’.
In English, it would read as: ‘Do you have complete confidence, some confidence, not much confidence or no confidence at all in [NAME OF PRESIDENT] to solve the problems France is facing nowadays?’.
Note that both IFOP and Sofres have asked the same questions about prime ministers. We consider here only the measures concerning French presidents. See Bélanger (2004) for more details on these French popularity series.
The Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Philips–Perron tests all suggest that the unemployment series has a unit root. Inflation, for its part, does not exhibit a unit root once we allow for the presence of a structural break in the series.
Note that because the IFOP popularity series are aggregate measures of public opinion surveys that are generally fielded between the 1st and the 19th of each month, all events occurring on the 20th or later in a month were coded as 1 for the following month.
Both the IFOP and Sofres series were analyzed for stationarity, applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Philips–Perron tests. The analysis suggests that both series are stationary in levels, but that the Sofres series exhibits a trend.
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Appendix
Appendix
France’s major political events (January 1978–April 2012)
Foreign and national security-related events
19/04/1978 – 2 French troops killed in Chad
03/05/1978–09/05/1978 – French military intervention in Mauritania
15/02/1979 – French parachutists arrive in Chad
09/01/1980 – Attacks in Corsica: 3 dead
16/04/1981 – Bombing in Ajaccio: 1 dead and 8 injured
15/09/1983 – Government official killed in Corsica
22/09/1983 – French aircrafts bomb Syrian artillery in Lebanon
23/10/1983 – Shi’a bombing in Beirut against US and French military bases: 58 French
17/11/1983 – Aircraft raid in Baalbek (Lebanon)
09/01/1984 – Bombing on the French HQ in Beirut: 1 parachutist dead
25/01/1984 – French aircraft shot down in Chad
22/02/1984 – 1 French troop killed in Beirut
07/04/1984 – 9 troops killed and 6 injured in Chad
06/06/1984 – 1 French observer killed in Beirut
14/06/1984 – 1 French troop killed in Chad
02/12/1984 – Bombing in Bastia: 2 dead
05/12/1984 – Ambush in New Caledonia: 10 dead
16/12/1984 – Criminal fire in New Caledonia: 3 dead
18/02/1985 – 1 Military official killed in Southern Lebanon
03/03/1985 – 5 French troops taken into hostage in Ethiopia
08/03/1985 – Gendarmerie major killed in New Caledonia
08/04/1985 – Teacher killed by rocks during protests in New Caledonia
08/05/1985 – Riots in New Caledonia: 1 dead and about 100 injured
07/12/1985 – Bombing in Paris claimed the Comité de Solidarité avec les Prisonniers Politiques Arabes et du Proche Orient, linked to the Hezbollah: 42 injured
03/02/1986 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the Hezbollah: 8 injured
04/02/1986 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the Hezbollah: 7 injured
05/02/1986 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the Hezbollah: 32 injured
16/02/1986 – France bombs military airport held by Libya in Chad
01/03/1986 – 150 French troops sent to Chad
05/03/1986 – The Islamic Jihad kills a French journalist in Lebanon
06/03/1986 – The Islamic Jihad kills 4 French hostages in Lebanon
17/03/1986 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the Hezbollah: 5 injured
20/03/1986 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the Hezbollah: 2 dead and 4 injured
04/09/1986 – 3 French troops killed and 1 injured in Lebanon
04/09/1986–09/17/1986 – 6 bombings claimed by Hezbollah: 12 dead and above 160 injured
13/09/1986 – 1 French troop killed and 5 injured in Lebanon
18/09/1986 – French troop assassinated in Lebanon
28/09/1986 – 2 French troops injured in Lebanon
20/02/1987 – 1 French troop killed in Lebanon
18/03/1987 – 5 French killed in a terrorist attack in Djibouti
15/06/1987 – FLNC attack in Ajaccio: 1 dead
04/08/1987 – FLNC attack in Bastia: 3 dead and 2 injured
04/10/1987 – 2 French troops killed and 2 others injured in Lebanon
08/12/1990 – French troops sent to the Persian Gulf
07/01/1991 – 1 French troop killed in Serbia
15/10/1992 – French troops sent to Bosnia
28/01/1993 – French Ambassador in Zaire dies after military attacks
09/02/1993 – France sends 150 troops to Rwanda
21/09/1993 – 2 French civilians assassinated by the GIA in Algeria
02/01/1994 – 1 French journalist assassinated by the GIA in Algeria
15/01/1994 – 1 French consular worker killed by the GIA in Algeria
21/02/1994 – 1 French civilian killed by the GIA in Algeria
23/03/1994 – 2 French civilians assassinated by the GIA in Algeria
08/05/1994 – 2 French clergymen killed by the GIA in Algeria
23/06/1994 – French troops arrive in Rwanda
03/08/1994 – 2 consular agents and 3 French troops assassinated by the GIA in Algeria
08/10/1994–10/10/1994 – 2 French civilians killed by the GIA in Algeria
18/10/1994–23/10/1994 – 1 French civilian killed by the GIA in Algeria
24/12/1994–25/12/1994 – Air France 8969 (Algiers to Paris) hijacked by the GIA
27/12/1994 – 3 French clergymen assassinated by the GIA in Algeria
14/03/1995 – 9 French UN troops die in Bosnia
05/05/1995 – 2 French killed by the GIA in Algeria
25/07/1995 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 8 dead and 86 injured
26/07/1995 – Fighting between the Mouvement pour l’Autodétermination (MPA) and the FLNC in Corsica: 3 dead
17/08/1995 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 17 injured
29/08/1995–30/08/1995 – 2 French UN troops killed in Bosnia
30/08/1995 – Fighting between the MPA and the FLNC in Corsica: 2 dead
03/09/1995 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 4 injured
03/09/1995 – 2 French nuns killed by the GIA in Algeria
07/09/1995 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 14 injured
04/10/1995–05/10/1995 – France removes the French missionary from power by force in the Comores
06/10/1995 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 16 injured
17/10/1995 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 30 injured
10/11/1995 – 1 French nun killed and 1 injured by the GIA in Algeria
24/05/1996 – 7 monks killed by the GIA in Algeria
01/07/1996 – Bombing in Corsica: 1 dead and 15 injured
03/12/1996 – Bombing in Paris claimed by the GIA: 4 dead and 170 injured
20/05/1997 – 2 French civilians killed in Kinshasa
30/11/1997 – 1 French civilian killed in Tadjikistan; another is held as a hostage
24/03/1998 – France sends troops to Kosovo
19/04/2000 – Bombing in Cote d’Armor (Brittany) by the FLB: 1 dead
17/08/2001 – Head of Amata Corsa killed
11/11/2001 – 2 French journalists killed in Afghanistan
01/12/2001 – 40 French troops arrive in Afghanistan
08/05/2002 – Bombings in Karachi: 11 French civilians dead
23/09/2002 – French troops sent to Ivory Coast
11/12/2002 – More French troops sent to Ivory Coast
06/01/2003 – 9 French troops killed in Ivory Coast
20/07/2003 – 2 FLNC bombings in Nice: 16 injured
21/10/2003 – 1 French journalist killed in Ivory Coast
06/01/2004 – 2 French engineers killed in Iraq
02/03/2004 – French troops arrive in Haiti
06/11/2004 – 9 French troops killed in Ivory Coast
09/01/2005 – 1 French officer killed in Lebanon
10/03/2006 – 1 Corsican elected official killed
26/02/2007 – 4 French civilians killed in Saudi Arabia
04/03/2007 – French troops intervene in Central African Republic
21/09/2007 – Bombing in Algeria: French civilians injured
23/12/2007 – Bombing in Corsica: 2 injured
24/12/2007 – 4 French tourists killed in Mauritania
01/01/2008 – 1 French civilian killed in Burundi
28/01/2008 – Bombing in Somolia: 1 killed
28/01/2008 – French troops sent to Tchad and the Central African Republic
01/04/2008 – More French troops sent to Afghanistan
08/06/2008 – Bombing in Algeria: 1 French civilian killed
18/08/2008 – 10 French troops killed in Afghanistan
22/09/2008 – More French troops sent to Afghanistan
22/02/2009 – Bombing in Egypt: 1 French civilian killed
08/08/2009 – Bombing in Mauritania: several injured
26/02/2010 – Bombing in Afghanistan: 1 French civilian killed
25/07/2010 – French hostage killed in Mali by Al-Queda Maghreb
08/01/2011 – Two French hostage killed in Niger by Al-Queda Maghreb
19/03/2011 – First French airstrikes on Lybia against Kadhafi troops
04/04/2011–10/04/2011 – French troops intervene in Ivory Coast
28/04/2011 – Bombing in Marocco by Al-Queda Maghreb: eight French civilians killed
13/07/2011 – Six French troops killed in Afghanistan
30/09/2011 – French civilian kidnapped and killed in Kenya
29/12/2011 – Two French troops killed in Afghanistan
11/01/2011 – French journalist killed in Syria
20/01/2012 – Four French troops killed in Afghanistan
22/02/2012 – French journalist killed in Syria
11/03/2012–19/03/2012 – Series of terrorist attacks on French soil: French troops and civilians killed
Major strikes
09/03/1978–10/03/1978 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
10/04/1978–09/05/1978 – PUBLIC SECTOR: series of strikes in the public sector
01/10/1978–05/10/1978 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
03/10/1978–27/10/1978 – PUBLIC SECTOR: PTT
06/11/1978–09/12/1978 – PUBLIC SECTOR: EDF, PTT and SNCF
14/11/1978–17/11/1978 – EDUCATION: students
07/03/1979 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
17/05/1979 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
22/08/1979–24/08/1979 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
12/09/1979–15/09/1979 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
17/10/1979 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
25/10/1979 – PUBLIC SECTOR: PTT
13/03/1980–15/03/1980 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
25/03/1980 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
07/05/1980–14/05/1980 – EDUCATION: Students
30/06/1980 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
15/10/1980 – PUBLIC SECTOR: PTT
26/03/1981 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
21/10/1982–22/10/1982 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
31/01/1984 – EDUCATION: Secondary school teachers
08/02/1984 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
08/03/1984–09/03/1984 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
25/10/1984 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF and RATP
19/03/1985 – TRANSPORTATION: Train drivers
11/06/1985–15/06/1985 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
01/10/1985 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
20/12/1985 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
14/05/1986–15/05/1986 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF and RATP
30/05/1986 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
09/07/1986 – TRANSPORTATION: Air France
30/09/1986 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
21/10/1986 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
17/12/1986 – PUBLIC SECTOR: EDF
18/12/1986–14/01/1987 – TRANSPORTATION: series of strikes by the SNCF and RATP
06/01/1987–14/01/1987 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
27/01/1987–13/02/1987 – STUDENTS: Teachers
21/04/1987–30/04/1987 – TRANSPORTATION: Airline controllers
01/10/1987 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
15/10/1987 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
10/12/1987–13/12/1987 – TRANSPORTATION: Air France
20/01/1989 – EDUCATION: Students
06/10/1989 – OTHER: Farmers
31/01/1990–01/02/1990 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
03/04/1990 – PUBLIC SECTOR: PTT
09/05/1990–01/06/1990 – PUBLIC SECTOR: Parisian trash collection workers
18/09/1990–05/10/1990 – PUBLIC SECTOR: Parisian trash collection workers
16/10/1990 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
22/10/1990–26/10/1990 – EDUCATION: Students
05/11/1990–20/11/1990 – EDUCATION: Students
10/05/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
17/05/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
31/05/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
21/06/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
28/06/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
18/09/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
29/09/1991 – OTHER: Farmers
17/11/1991 – PUBLIC SECTOR: Police and nurses
17/11/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: Truck drivers
17/12/1991 – TRANSPORTATION: SCNF
28/01/1992 – OTHER: Border patrols
30/01/1992 – EDUCATION: Students
15/04/1992 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
29/06/1992–08/07/1992 – TRANSPORTATION: Truck drivers
10/11/1992 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
17/11/1992–23/11/1992 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
27/11/1992 – TRANSPORTATION: Public transports strike (throughout France)
09/03/1993–11/03/1993 – TRANSPORTATION: RATP
09/12/1993 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
16/01/1994 – EDUCATION: strikes in favor of public schools
10/10/1995 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
25/10/1995 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
24/11/1995 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
24/11/1995 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
12/12/1995 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
07/10/1996 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
07/11/1996 – TRANSPORTATION: Truck drivers
17/11/1996 – TRANSPORTATION: Truckers drivers
26/01/1997 – TRANSPORTATION: general strike
06/02/1997–18/02/1997 – TRANSPORTATION: general strike
06/03/1997 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
02/11/1997–08/11/1997 – TRANSPORTATION: Truck drivers
05/10/1998–12/10/1998 – TRANSPORTATION: general strike
12/10/1998–20/10/1998 – EDUCATION: Students
01/09/2000–09/09/2000 – OTHER: Farmers and truck drivers
18/01/2001 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
22/03/2001 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
29/03/2001–13/04/2001 – TRANSPORTATION: SCNF
06/09/2002–09/09/2002 – TANSPORTATION: Air France
20/11/2002 – OTHER: Farmers
25/11/2002–26/11/2002 – TRANSPORTATION: Truck drivers
26/11/2002 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
06/05/2003 – EDUCATION: general strike
13/05/2003 – EDUCATION: general strike
13/05/2003 – OTHER: Public and private sector employees strike against governmental reforms
19/05/2003 – EDUCATION: general strike
25/05/2003–27/05/2003 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
03/06/2003 – TRANSPORTATION: general strike
04/06/2003 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
05/06/2003 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
20/11/2003 – EDUCATION: universities
20/01/2004 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
21/01/2004 – TRANSPORTATION: SCNF
12/03/2004 – EDUCATION: general strike
21/09/2004 – PUBLIC SECTOR: Postal services
25/10/2004 – TRANSPORTATION: SCNF
18/01/2005 – PUBLIC SECTOR: Postal services
20/01/2005 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
05/02/2005 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
08/02/2005–08/03/2005 – EDUCATION: Students
10/03/2005 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
02/04/2005–05/04/2005 – EDUCATION: Students
03/05/2005 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
13/03/2006 – OTHER: Suez-GDF strike
13/11/2007–22/11/2007 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF and RATP
20/11/2007 – PUBLIC SECTOR: general strike
06/04/2010 – TRANSPORTATION: SNCF
07/09/2010 – OTHER: Public and private sector employees strike against pension reforms
02/10/2010–28/10/2010 – OTHER: Public and private sector employees strike against pension reforms on four occasions
23/11/2010 – OTHER: Public and private sector employees strike against pension reforms
Domestic strife
08/03/1979 – Confrontations in Denain (Nord): 5 policemen injured
12/06/1980 – Action Directe bombing against the Orly airport: 8 injured
03/10/1980 – Synagogue bombing in Paris: 4 dead
11/11/1981 – Separatist riots in New Caledonia
02/03/1982 – Train bombing: 8 dead
22/04/1982 – Roadside car bombing in Paris: 1 dead and 63 injured
08/09/1982 – Anti-Semite bombing in Paris: 6 dead and 20 injured
31/05/1983 – Action Directe members attack police officials: 2 dead and 1 injured
23/07/1983 – An Action Directe commando attacks a bank in St Etienne: 1 injured
30/09/1983 – Action Directe bombing in Marseille: 1 dead and 26 injured
09/02/1984 – Basque separatist riot after the assassination of 2 ETA leaders
27/03/1984 – An Action Directe commando commits a hold-up in a bank in Lyon: 1 dead
02/08/1984 – Action Directe bombing against the Agence Spatiale Européenne in Paris: 6 injured
20/10/1984 – Action Directe bombing in Montrouge: 3 injured
30/11/1984 – Confrontations in New Caledonia: 2 dead
25/01/1985 – An Action Directe commando kills an influential official from the Ministère de la Défense
29/03/1985 – Bombing against the Festival du Cinéma Juif in Paris: 18 injured
08/04/1985 – Teacher killed during protests in New Caledonia
20/04/1985 – Action Directe bombing against the telecommunication company TRT: 1 injured
08/05/1985 – Riots in New Caledonia: 1 dead and about 100 injured
09/05/1985 – Action Directe bombing: 1 injured
10/05/1985 – Action Directe bombings against Antenne 2, the Haute Autorité de l’Audiovisuel, and Radio France
17/02/1986 – Anti-separatist demonstration in New Caledonia: 9 injured
16/05/1986 – Action Directe members attack the Interpol headquarters in Paris: 1 injured
09/07/1986 – Action directe bombing in Paris: 3 dead and 28 injured
17/11/1986 – An Action Directe commando kills the CEO of Renault
27/11/1986 – Student riots
04/12/1986 – Student riots: 1 dead
15/12/1986 – Bombing against the Ministère de la Justice: 1 dead (driver)
26/08/1987 – Separatist riots in New Caledonia
30/09/1987 – Separatist riots in New Caledonia: 2 dead
01/02/1989 – Separatist riots in New Corsica
03/01/1991 – Separatist riots in New Corsica
13/02/1991 – Separatist riots in the Réunion
09/06/1991 – Suburban riots in Paris: 1 dead
30/06/1991 – Suburban riots in Paris
16/10/1991 – Confrontation between farmers and law enforcement authorities in Moulins (Allier)
16/11/1991 – Confrontation between farmers and law enforcement authorities in Auch (Gers)
02/01/1993 – Violent demonstration to protest the death of 5 homeless people
02/09/1993 – Suburban riots in Paris: 10 injured
25/03/1994 – Violent demonstrations against the CIP (Contrat d’Insertion Professionelle)
23/08/1995 – Suburban riots: 1 dead and 1 injured
06/09/1995–07/09/1995 – Riots in French Polynesia to protest against the nuclear test
09/11/1995–07/12/1995 – Student demonstrations and riots
23/07/1996 – CRS (Compagnie Républicaine de Sécurité) evacuates a church occupied by illegal immigrants
22/04/2002–30/04/2002 – Anti-fascist riots and demonstrations throughout the country
27/10/2005–20/12/2005 – Wave of suburban riots in Paris
23/03/2006 – Violent demonstrations against the CPE (Contrat Première Embauche)
30/05/2006 – Suburban riots in Paris
05/06/2007 – Judge stabbed in Metz
25/11/2007–28/11/2007 – Riots in Villiers-le-Bel
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Turgeon, M., Bélanger, É. & Nadeau, R. French popularity functions: Different measures, different determinants?. Fr Polit 13, 266–286 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2015.13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2015.13