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Uncertainty in climate change

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Climate modelling has produced varying projections of possible global rises in temperature. A simple statistical method brings several such projections into closer agreement and includes an indication of potential accuracy.

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Figure 1: The approach of Allen et al.1 to estimating temperature for 2036–2046, and the uncertainty of that estimate.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada, c/o University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, Victoria, V8W 2Y2, British Columbia, Canada

    Andrew J. Weaver & Francis W. Zwiers

Authors
  1. Andrew J. Weaver
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  2. Francis W. Zwiers
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Correspondence to Andrew J. Weaver.

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Weaver, A., Zwiers, F. Uncertainty in climate change. Nature 407, 571–572 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1038/35036659

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