Abstract
In many engineering problems, we want a physical characteristic y to lie within given range Y; e.g., for all possible values of the load x from 0 to x 0, the resulting stress y of a mechanical structure should not exceed a given value y 0. If no such design is possible, then, from the purely mathematical viewpoint, all possible designs are equally bad. Intuitively, however, a design for which y ≤ y 0 for all values x ∈ [0,0.99 ⋅ x 0] is “more probable” to work well than a design for which y ≤ y 0 only for the values x ∈ [0,0.5 ⋅ x 0]. In this paper, we describe an interval computations-related formalization for this subjective notion of probability. We show that this description is in good accordance with the empirical distribution of numerical data and with the problems related to estimating the lifetime of the Universe.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aczél, J.: Lectures on Functional Equations and Their Applications, Academic Press, N.Y., London, 1966.
Benford, F.: The Law of Anomalous Numbers, Proc. Am. Phil. Soc. 78 (1938), pp. 551–572.
Buchholz, F.-I., Kessel, W., and Melchert, F.: Noise Power Measurements and Measurement Uncertainties, IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement 41(4) (1992), pp. 476–481.
CIPM (Comité International des Poids et Mesures): Recommendation INC-1 (1980), in: Giacomo, P., News from the BIPM, Metrologia 17 (1981), pp. 69–74.
CIPM (Comité International des Poids et Mesures): Recommendation 1 (CI-1981), in: Giacomo, P., News from the BIPM, Metrologia 18 (1982), pp. 41–44.
Clenshaw, C. W., Olver, F. W. J., and Turner, P. R.: Level-Index Arithmetic: An Introductory Survey, in: Numerical Analysis and Parallel Processing, Springer Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1397, Springer-Verlag, N.Y., 1989, pp. 95–168.
Dong, W. M., Chiang, W. L., and Shah, H. C.: Fuzzy Information Processing in Seismic Hazard Analysis and Decision Making, International Journal of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 6(4) (1987), pp. 220–226.
Feldstein, A. and Goodman, R. H.: Some Aspects of Floating Point Computation, in: Numerical Analysis and Parallel Processing, Springer Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1397, Springer-Verlag, N.Y., 1989, pp. 169–181.
Flehinger, B. J.: On the Probability That a Random Number Has Initial Digit A, American Mathematical Monthly 73 (1966), pp. 1056–1061.
Gott III, J. R.: Implications of the Copernican Principle for Our Future Prospects, Nature 363 (1993), pp. 315–319.
Gray, R. M.: Probability, Random Processes, and Ergodic Properties, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1988.
Hamming, R. W.: On the Distribution of Numbers, Bell Systems Technical Journal 49 (1970), pp. 1609–1625.
Hill, T. P.: A Statistical Derivation of the Significant-Digit Law, Statistical Science 10 (1996), pp. 354–363.
Hill, T. P.: The First Digit Phenomenon, American Scientist 86 (1998), pp. 358–363.
Itô, K. (ed.): Encyclopedic Dictionary of Mathematics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1993.
Jaynes, E. T.: Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics, Physics Review (1957), pp. 106–108.
Kafarov, V. V., Paluh, B. V., and Perov, V. L.: Solving the Problem of Technical Diagnostics of Uninterrupted Production Using Interval Analysis, Doklady AN SSSR 3(13) (1990), pp. 677–680 (in Russian).
Kearfott, R. B. and Kreinovich, V.: Where to Bisect a Box? A Theoretical Explanation of the Experimental Results, in: Alefeld, G. and Trejo, R. A. (eds), Interval Computations and Its Applications to Reasoning under Uncertainty, Knowledge Representation, and Control Theory. Proceedings of MEXICON'98, Workshop on Interval Computations, 4th World Congress on Expert Systems, México City, México, 1998.
Knuth, D. E.: The Art of Computer Programming. Vol. 2. Semi Numerical Algorithms, Addison-Welsey, Reading, 1969.
Kreinovich, V.: Maximum Entropy and Interval Computations, Reliable Computing 2(1) (1996), pp. 63–79.
Kreinovich, V. and Csendes, T.: Theoretical Justification of a Heuristic Subbox Selection Criterion, Central European Journal of Operations Research CEJOR 9(3) (2001), pp. 255–265.
Kreinovich, V., Nguyen, H. T., and Walker, E. A.: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Method in Expert Systems and Intelligent Control: New Possibilities and Limitations, in: Hanson, K. M. and Silver, R. N. (eds), Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1996, pp. 93–100.
Kreinovich, V., Starks, S. A., and Mayer, G.: On a Theoretical Justification of The Choice of Epsilon-Inflation in PASCAL-XSC, Reliable Computing 3(4) (1997), pp. 437–452.
Löffler, K.: Behandlung von Wertebereichen in Datenbanken (Handling Intervals in Database), Angewandte Informatik 29(1) (1987), pp. 20–22 (in German, English summary).
Nguyen, H. T. and Kreinovich, V.: Applications of Continuous Mathematics to Computer Science, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1997.
Paluh, B. V.: Technical Diagnostics of Production Using Interval Methods, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Interval and Stochastic Methods in Science and Engineering INTERVAL'92, Moscow, 1992, Vol. 1, pp. 131–133 (in Russian; English abstract Vol. 2, p. 88).
Paluh, B. V., Vasilyov, B. V., and Perov, V. L.: Application of Interval Mathematics for Solving Technical Diagnostics Tasks of Non-Stop Manufacture in Chemical Industry, Interval Computations 1(1) (1991), pp. 99–104.
Pexider, J. V.: Notiz uber Funktionaltheoreme, Monastch. Math. Phys. 14 (1903), pp. 293–301.
Pinkham, R. S.: On the Distribution of First Significant Digits, Annals of Math. Statistics 32 (1961), pp. 1223–1230.
Raimi, R. A.: On the Distribution of First Significant Digits, American Mathematical Monthly 76 (1969), pp. 342–348.
Schneider, M., Shnaider, E., and Kandel, A.: Applications of the Negation Operator in Fuzzy Production Rules, International Journal of Fuzzy Sets and Systems 34 (1990), pp. 293–299.
Turner, P. R.: A Software Implementation of sli Arithmetic, in: Ercegovac and Swartzlander (eds), Proceedings ARITH 9, IEEE Computer Society, Washington, DC, 1989, pp. 18–24.
Turner, P.R.: Will the “Real” Arithmetic Please Stand Up?, Notices of the American Mathematical Society 38(4) (1991), pp. 298–304.
Wagman, D., Schneider, M., and Shnaider, E.: On the Use of Interval Mathematics in Fuzzy Expert Systems, International Journal of Intelligent Systems 9 (1994), pp. 241–259.
WECC (Western European Calibration Cooperation): Guidelines for the Expression of the Uncertainty of Measurements in Calibrations, Document 19-1990, 1990.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nguyen, H.T., Kreinovich, V. & Longpré, L. Dirty Pages of Logarithm Tables, Lifetime of the Universe, and (Subjective) Probabilities on Finite and Infinite Intervals. Reliable Computing 10, 83–106 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:REOM.0000015848.19449.12
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:REOM.0000015848.19449.12