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Predictors of 49-month mortality in Chinese nonagenarians and centenarians in PLAD study

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Abstract

Objective

To examine whether a set of well-known predictors of mortality in younger elderly also maintain their importance in Chinese oldest old group.

Design

A cross-sectional study of 1401 inhabitants aged 90 and older were conducted in the area of Dujiangyan, China. 825 subjects participated and were followed up for vital status after 49 months. Professional interviewers collected baseline data concerning socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits, physical factors and geriatric assessment. Bivariate analysis was conducted between survivors and deceased. Cox regression models were used to evaluate predictors of mortality.

Results

Four hundred and thirty-six (52.8 %) of 825 participants eligible for the analysis died during the 49 months of follow-up period. Older age, comorbidity, lower MMSE score, lower ADL and IADL scores increased the risk of mortality in the study group. Multivariate analyses showed older age (HR = 1.03, 95 % CI 1.01–1.07) and comorbidity (HR = 1.09, 95 % CI 1.02–1.17) were associated with mortality while female gender (HR = 0.61, 95 % CI 0.43–0.86), taking exercise (HR = 0.80, 95 % CI 0.64–1.01) and higher MMSE scores (HR = 0.96, 95 % CI 0.94–0.99) showed a positive effect on survival.

Conclusion

In Chinese nonagenarians and centenarians, age, gender, taking exercise, cognitive impairment and comorbidity at baseline show predictive power of oldest old mortality.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Discipline Construction Foundation of Sichuan University and by grants from the Project of Science and Technology Bureau of Sichuan Province (2006Z09-006-4), and in part by the Center of Coordination and Innovation for Aging Care and Health Promotion of Sichuan. The authors thank the staff of the Department of Geriatrics Medicine, West China Hospital and Dujiangyan Hospital, and all participants (as well as their legal proxies) for their great contribution.

Conflict of interest

The authors indicate no potential conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of Research Ethics Committee of the Sichuan University and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

Informed consent

Informed consent was obtained from all participants (or their legal proxies).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geriatrics, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Guoxuexiang 37, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan Province, China

    Chuan Zou, Yan Zhou, Birong Dong, Qiukui Hao, Shanping Chen & Jianghua Zhou

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  1. Chuan Zou
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  2. Yan Zhou
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  3. Birong Dong
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  4. Qiukui Hao
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Correspondence to Birong Dong.

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Zou, C., Zhou, Y., Dong, B. et al. Predictors of 49-month mortality in Chinese nonagenarians and centenarians in PLAD study. Aging Clin Exp Res 27, 821–827 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-015-0355-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-015-0355-y

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