Abstract
Kavitha and Raghukanth (Acta Geod Geophys 1–33, 2015) proposed an algorithm to forecast the earthquake energy release for the global seismogenic zones. They concluded that “the developed model is efficient in forecasting the annual earthquake energy release of most of the seismogenic zone”. However, for several representative case studies their predictions not only are significantly smaller than the observations but also have unreasonable uncertainty. This commentary discusses some of the problems associated with the earthquake data selection for the input of modeling, which may improve the accuracy of the earthquake energy prediction.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
References
Frohlich C (2006) Deep earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom
Herrendorfer R, van Dinther Y, Gerya T, Dalguer LA (2015) Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone. Nat Geosci 8:471–474. doi:10.1038/ngeo2427
Heuret A, Lallemand S, Funiciello F, Piromallo C, Faccenna C (2011) Physical characteristics of subduction interface type seismogenic zones revisited. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 12:Q01004. doi:10.1029/2010GC003230
Heuret A, Conrad CP, Funiciello F, Lallemand S, Sandri L (2012) Relation between subduction megathrust earthquakes, trench sediment thickness and upper plate strain. Geophys Res Lett 39:L05340. doi:10.1029/2011GL050712
Houston H (2007) Deep earthquakes. In: Schubert G (ed) Treatise on geophysics. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 321–350. doi:10.1016/B978-044452748-6.00071-7
Hutton K, Woessner J, Hauksson E (2010) Earthquake monitoring in southern California for seventy-seven years (1932–2008). Bull Seism Soc Am 100:423–446. doi:10.1785/0120090130
Kavitha B, Raghukanth STG (2015) Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release. Acta Geod Geophys 1–33. doi:10.1007/s40328-015-0131-7
Michael AJ (2014) How complete is the ISC-GEM global earthquake catalog? Bull Seism Soc Am 104:1829–1837. doi:10.1785/0120130227
Nishikawa T, Ide S (2014) Earthquake size distribution in subduction zones linked to slab buoyancy. Nat Geosci 7:904–908. doi:10.1038/ngeo2279
Scholz CH, Campos J (2012) The seismic coupling of subduction zones revisited. J Geophys Res 117:B05310. doi:10.1029/2011JB009003
Song T-RA, Simons M (2003) Large trench-parallel gravity variations predict seismogenic behavior in subduction zones. Science 301:630–633. doi:10.1126/science.1085557
Woessner J, Wiemer S (2005) Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bull Seism Soc Am 95:684–698. doi:10.1785/0120040007
Woessner J, Schorlemmer D, Wiemer S, Mai PM (2006) Spatial correlation of aftershock locations and on-fault main shock properties. J Geophys Res 111:B08301. doi:10.1029/2005JB003961
Acknowledgments
This study was financially supported by Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan, Republic of China, under Grant MOST 104-2811-M-001-053.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wu, WN. Comment on the paper by Kavitha and Raghukanth, “Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release”. Acta Geod Geophys 51, 773–775 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-015-0157-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-015-0157-x