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The Effects of Children’s Migration on Elderly Kin’s Health: A Counterfactual Approach

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Demography

Abstract

Recent studies of migration and the left-behind have found that elders with migrant children actually experience better health outcomes than those with no migrant children, yet these studies raise many concerns about self-selection. Using three rounds of panel survey data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we employ the counterfactual framework developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin to examine the relationship between having a migrant child and the health of elders aged 50 and older, as measured by activities of daily living (ADL), self-rated health (SRH), and mortality. As in earlier studies, we find a positive association between old-age health and children’s migration, an effect that is partly explained by an individual’s propensity to have migrant children. Positive impacts of migration are much greater among elders with a high propensity to have migrant children than among those with low propensity. We note that migration is one of the single greatest sources of health disparity among the elders in our study population, and point to the need for research and policy aimed at broadening the benefits of migration to better improve health systems rather than individual health.

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Notes

  1. Our results for rural respondents hold for urban areas, although models that combine both rural and urban populations tend to be driven by the rural results.

  2. The four-category general health question yielded little variation between the poor versus nonpoor dichotomy. In the study group, 95% of respondents were either “somewhat healthy” or “somewhat unhealthy,” 4% were unhealthy, and 1% were healthy.

  3. The term district refers to the kabupaten, or regency: the unit of government below province.

  4. Deciles cover the following ranges in U.S. dollars: 0–225; 227–588; 589–1,000; 1,009–1,506; 1,507–2,197; 2,203–3,069; 3,072–4,466; 4,470–6,714; 6,769–12,608; 12,667–42,000.

  5. For child characteristics, we use data from IFLS-2 (1997) to ensure comparability to our independent migration variable, which is calculated from IFLS-2. For household asset variables, we use data from IFLS-1 (1993) to capture socioeconomic predisposition over a longer time span.

  6. Separate counts for male and female children were not included because they did not improve model fit. This conforms with previous research, suggesting that male and female migration patterns are comparable in this population (Frankenberg and Kuhn 2004).

  7. While statistical power is limited in our low propensity block, with only 56 treatment cases of 560 total, the effects are well below the level of statistical significance.

  8. These are predicted probabilities derived from separate models; thus, the results are not directly comparable.

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Acknowledgment

This research was supported by National Science Foundation Grant 0422976. Additional support came from National Institute on Aging Grant R03AG19294-01A1 and NIA Grant 5P30AG017248-02. The authors thank Richard Rogers, Francisca Antman, Ying Lu, and Steve Stillman for their helpful advice; Jarron Saint Onge, Kunga Lama, and Yaffa Truelove for research assistance; Christine Peterson and the IFLS Support Team for data assistance; and Graham Smith and Andrew Linke for editorial assistance. An earlier version of this article was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America in New York in March 2007.

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  1. Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA

    Randall Kuhn

  2. Department of Sociology, University of Colorado–Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Bethany Everett

  3. Department of Geography, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

    Rachel Silvey

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  1. Randall Kuhn
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Correspondence to Randall Kuhn.

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Kuhn, R., Everett, B. & Silvey, R. The Effects of Children’s Migration on Elderly Kin’s Health: A Counterfactual Approach. Demography 48, 183–209 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-010-0002-3

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