Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century

  • Published:
Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC · a−1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC · a−1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Houghton J T, Meira F, Callander L G, et al. Climate change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. 65–131

    Google Scholar 

  2. Houghton R A. The contemporary carbon cycle. In: Schlesinger W H, ed. Biogeochemistry. Oxford: Elsevier-Pergamon, 2003. 473–513

    Google Scholar 

  3. IPCC. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001. 184–237

    Google Scholar 

  4. Cox P M, Betts R A, Jones C D, et al. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 2000, 408: 184–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Joos F, Prentice I C, Sitch S, et al. Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Glob Biogeochem Cycle, 2001, 15: 891–907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward F I, et al. Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Change Biol, 2001, 8: 357–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Jones C D, Cox P M, Essery R L H, et al. Strong carbon cycle feedbacks in a climate model with interactive CO2 and sulphate aerosols, Geophys Res Lett, 2003, 30(9): 1479–1483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Friedlingstein P, Dufresne J L, Cox P M, et al. How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle? Tellus Ser B-Chem Phys Meteorol, 2003, 55: 692–700

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Berthelot M, Friedlingstein P, Clais P, et al. How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes. Glob Change Biol, 2005, 11: 959–970

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Gerten D, et al. Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections. Clim Change, 2006, 74: 97–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Ji J J. A climate-vegetation interaction model: Simulating physical and biological processes at the surface. J Biogeogr, 1995, 22: 2063–2069

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Ji J J, Huang M, Liu Q. Modeling studies of response mechanism of steppe productivity to climate change in middle latitude semiarid regions in China. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 2005, 63(3): 257–266

    Google Scholar 

  13. Lu J, Ji J J. A simulation and mechanism analysis of long-term variations at land surface over arid/semi-arid area in north China. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111(D9): D09306

    Google Scholar 

  14. Huang M, Ji J, Li K. et al. The ecosystem carbon accumulation after conversion of grasslands to pine plantations in subtropical red soil of South China. Tellus Ser B-Chem Phys Meteorol, 2007, 59: 439–448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Ji J, Hu Y. A simple landsurface process model for use in climate study. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 1989, 3: 344–353

    Google Scholar 

  16. Yan Z, Ji J. A simple vegetation-soil-snowfall preliminary modeling. Plateau Meteorol (in Chinese), 1995, 14(4): 415–424

    Google Scholar 

  17. Farquhar G D, Caemmerer S, Berry J A. A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 plants. Planta, 1980, 149: 78–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Parton W J, Schimel D S, Cole C V, et al. Division S-3-soil microbiology and biochemistry: Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in great plains grasslands. Soil Sci Soc Am J, 1987, 51: 1173–1179

    Google Scholar 

  19. Cao M, Woodward F I. Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change. Glob Change Biol, 1998, 4: 185–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Zhang S H, Peng G B, Huang M. The feature extraction and data fusion of regional soil textures based on GIS techniques. Clim Environ Res (in Chinese), 2004, 9(1): 65–79

    Google Scholar 

  21. Box E O. Plant functional types and climate at the global scale. J Veg Sci, 1996, 7: 309–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Xu Y L, Zhang Y, Lin Y H, et al. Validating PRECIS analyses on scenario of SRES B2 over China. Chin Sci Bull, 2006, 51(16): 2068–2072

    Google Scholar 

  23. Xu Y, Richard J. Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China. Chin J Agrometeorol (in Chinese), 2004, 25(1): 5–9

    Google Scholar 

  24. Xu Y, Huang X, Zhang Y, et al. Statistical analyses of climate change scenarios over China in the 21st century. Adv Clim Change Res (in Chinese), 2005, 1(2): 80–83

    Google Scholar 

  25. Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C, et al. Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS. Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre, 2004. 1–35

    Google Scholar 

  26. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. 1–599

    Google Scholar 

  27. Li Y P, Ji J J. Simulations of carbon exchange between global terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere. Acta Geogr Sin (in Chinese), 2001, 56(4): 379–389

    Google Scholar 

  28. Dan L, Ji J J, He Y. Use of ISLSCP II data to intercompare and validate the terrestrial net primary production in a land surface model coupled to a general circulation model. J Geophys Res, 2007, 112: 1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Huang M, Ji J J, Cao M K, et al. Modeling study of vegetation shoot and root biomass in China. Acta Ecol Sin (in Chinese), 2006, 26(12): 4156–4163

    Google Scholar 

  30. Li K R, Wang S Q, Cao M K. Vegetation and Soil carbon storage in China. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2004, 47(1): 49–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Li Z P, Han F X, Su Y, et al. Assessment of soil organic and carbonate carbon storage in China. Geoderma, 2007, 138: 119–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Xie X L, Sun B, Zhou H Z, et al. Organic carbon density and storage in soils of China and spatial analysis. Acta Pedol Sin (in Chinese), 2004, 41(1): 35–43

    Google Scholar 

  33. Wang S Q, Zhou C H, Li K R. Analysis of soil organic carbon pool and the geograpghical distribution. Acta Geogr, 2000, 55(5): 533–544

    Google Scholar 

  34. Yu D S, Shi X Z, Wang H J, et al. Regional patterns of soil organic carbon stocks in China. J Environ Manag, 2007, 85(3): 680–689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Wu H, Guo Z, Peng C. Land use induced changes of organic carbon storage in soils of China. Glob Change Biol, 2003, 9: 305–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Tao B, Li K R, Shao X M, et al. Temporal and spatial pattern of net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Acta Geogr Sin (in Chinese), 2003, 58(3): 372–380

    Google Scholar 

  37. Sun R, Zhu Q. Primary study on the effect of climate change on net primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation in China. J Remote Sens, 2001, 5(1): 58–61

    Google Scholar 

  38. Piao S, Fang J, Guo Q. Terrestrial net primary productivity and its spatio-temporal patterns in China during 1982–1999. Acta Sci Nat Univ Peking (in Chinese), 2001, 37(4): 563–569

    Google Scholar 

  39. Xiao X M. Net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems in China and it’s equilibrium responses to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Acta Phytoecol Sin (in Chinese), 1998, 22(2): 97–118

    Google Scholar 

  40. Cao M K, Prince S D, Li K, et al. Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China. Glob Change Biol, 2003(9): 536–546

  41. He Y, Dong W, Ji J, et al. The net primary production simulation of terrestrial ecosystems in China by AVIM. Adv Earth Sci (in Chinese), 2005, 20(3): 345–349

    Google Scholar 

  42. Beerling D J, Woodward F I. Vegetation and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Modeling the First 400 Million Years. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001

    Google Scholar 

  43. Ito A. Climate-related uncertainties in projections of the twenty-first centure terrestrial carbon budget: Off-line model experiments using IPCC greenhouse-gas scenarios and AOGCM climate projections. Clim Dyn, 2005, 24: 435–448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Jenkinson D S, Adams D E, Wild A. Model estimates of CO2 emissions from soil in response to global warming. Nature, 1991, 351: 304–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Schimel D S, Braswell B H, Holland E A, et al. Climatic, edaphic and biotic controls over storage and turnover of carbon in soils. Glob Biogeochem Cycles, 1994, 8: 279–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Kirschbaum M U F. The temperature dependence of soil organic matter decomposition and the effect of global warming on soil organic carbon storage. Soil Biol Biochem, 1995, 27: 753–760

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Levy P E, Cannell M G R, Friend A D. Modelling the impact of future changes in climate, CO2 concentration and land use on natural ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink. Glob Environ Change, 2004, 14: 21–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Cramer W, Kicklighter D W, Bondeau A, et al. Comparing global modes of terrestrial net primary productivity(NPP): Overview and key results. Glob Change Biol, 1999, 5(Suppl): 1–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    JinJun Ji, Mei Huang & KeRang Li

  2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    JinJun Ji

Authors
  1. JinJun Ji
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mei Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. KeRang Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to JinJun Ji.

Additional information

Supported by the Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2002CB412500) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 30590384)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ji, J., Huang, M. & Li, K. Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century. Sci. China Ser. D-Earth Sci. 51, 885–898 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-008-0039-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-008-0039-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation