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Prospects for Democratic Transition in China

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Abstract

The core tenet of modernization theory is that as nation-states develop both economically and socially, they will inevitably transition to democracy. Yet, despite 30-years of robust economic development and growth, including increases in civil society, democracy remains elusive in China. In this article, we conduct a critical and empirical analysis to understand the challenges and possibilities of democratization in China. Should China transition to democracy, it will most likely occur through a top-down process that transforms the state and its institutions of government or through a cooperative pact by joint forces of top-down and bottom-up processes. Under either a converted or cooperative transition, the modeling in this study strongly suggests that China is likely to be successful should it undertake the process of democratization.

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Notes

  1. Stephen S. Roach, “Why China is Central to Global Growth,” World Economic Forum:: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/why-china-is-central-to-global-growth

  2. Wang Shaoguang, “A Chinese Alternative is Possible,” http://www.guancha.cn/wangshaoguang/2013_07_17_158742.shtml;

    Zheng Yongnian, “Where will the “Western Democracy” lead China?” retrieved from: http://www.guancha.cn/zheng-yong-nian/2013_07_09_156858.shtml

  3. When Karl and Schmitter discuss Pact, they do not distinguish elites in power from elite reformers; hence the overlap.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science and Center for US-China Policy Studies, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, USA

    Sujian Guo

  2. George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA

    Gary A. Stradiotto

Authors
  1. Sujian Guo
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  2. Gary A. Stradiotto
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Correspondence to Gary A. Stradiotto.

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Guo, S., Stradiotto, G.A. Prospects for Democratic Transition in China. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 23, 47–61 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-017-9465-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-017-9465-z

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